European Economic Forecast – Winter 2015 Marco Buti, Director General DG ECFIN EPC Policy Dialogue Brussels, 24 February 2015.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Prospects and Reform After the Great Recession Zeljko Bogetic Lead Economist and Coordinator for Economic Policy for Russia Presentation based on the Russian.

Advertisements

1 Economic policy priorities after the Spring European Council Presentation by Marco BUTI, DG Economic and Financial Affairs BUSINESSEUROPE Economic and.

WHAT IS THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK? Paris, 6 May 2014 Angel Gurría, Secretary-General and Rintaro Tamaki, Deputy Secretary-General and Acting Chief Economist.

SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS

Supply Side policies. Supply side policies aim to… Improve the efficiency of factor markets, to boost productivity and hence the overall capacity of the.

Five Years After GFC Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Markus Rodlauer Deputy Director, China Mission Chief IMF, Asia and Pacific Department December.

1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.

Recovery from the Crisis and Looking to the Future: Economic Performance and Prospects Keith Jefferis 29 June 2011.

Rebalancing in a low growth environment Prof. Dr. Júlia Király October 30th, 2012 PhD of economics, honorary professor, deputy governor of the Magyar Nemzeti.

Interest Rates, ECB and Financial Markets Presented by: Paul McDaid Dominic King Iarla Davoren Conor O’Brien.

Recent Developments in the Region and Macedonia Opening of the NBRM-WB PIC Alexander Tieman 16 December, 2010.

The Current Economic Situation in the Euro Area Presentation by Nigel Nagarajan Faculty Orientation – 2009 Euro Challenge Federal Reserve Bank of Boston,

L Bini-Smaghi Aspen Dialogue on World Economy, 8-9 July Can reform be successful without growth? Aspen Dialogue on World Economy, 8-9 July 2005.

0 Brazil Economic Outlook Alexandre Bassoli May, 2007.

DR. PETROS KOSMAS LECTURER VARNA FREE UNIVERSITY ACADEMIC YEAR LECTURE 8 MICROECONOMICS AND MACROECONOMICS ECO-1067.

Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Chapter 31 Copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. Requests for permission to make copies of any.

CAIJING ANNUAL CONFERENCE 2009 Forecasts and Strategies Beijing December 12, 2008.

Chapter 11 Business Cycles These slides supplement the textbook, but should not replace reading the textbook.

FEBRUARY Global economic growth: no decoupling (Real GDP, % change) World U.S Japan

The Dawn of a New Economic Era? Russia Economic Report April 2015 | Edition No. 33.

Macroeconomic Policy and Floating Exchange Rates

The Israeli Economy: Maintaining a Thriving Economy in the Shadow of Terror Prof. Zvi Eckstein Deputy Governor, Bank of Israel The Jerusalem Center for.

2005 and Real GDP Growth in the past 10 years Average 3.3% 1.0% 8.4% 3.1%

The Global and Serbia’s Economy CFO Summit Arandjelovac, June 1, 2012 Bogdan Lissovolik IMF Resident Representative for Serbia.

SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS

Economic Overview Laurence Sanders. World Economic Growth n Sustained recovery n USA 4.7% n Japan 4.2% n UK 3.7% n Eurozone 2.0% ( second quarter GDP.

The Global Economic Outlook May 2005 Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist Wachovia Corporation.

Mr. Sloan Riverside Brookfield High school.  2 Hours and 10 Minutes Long  Section 1-Multiple Choice ◦ 70 Minutes Long ◦ Worth 2/3 of the Score  Section.

NATIONAL BANK OF AZERBAIJAN KHAGANI ABDULLAYEV, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR.

The Stability and Growth Pact Frederick University 2013.

1 Preliminary assessment of progress in implementing the EERP Alexandr Hobza, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs European Commission.

Copyright © 2004 South-Western 20 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply.

Overview What we have seen : achievements Crisis less bad than feared What we can expect : challenges Fragile, slow and varied recovery What should be.

Fiscal Policy & Aggregate Demand

World Bank EU 10 Regular Economic Report Safeguarding Recovery Brussels, 16 July 2010.

Maintaining Growth in an Uncertain World Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa African Department International Monetary Fund November 13, 2012.

1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.

Chapter 14.  Discuss Milton Friedman’s contribution to modern economic thought.  Evaluate appropriately timed monetary policy and its impacts on interest.

Final Exam 3 questions: Question 1 (20%). No choice Question 1 (20%). No choice Question 2 (40%). Answer 8 out of 10 short questions. ONLY THE FIRST 8.

1 Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary Fund May 2009.

Balance of payments and related statistics: a European perspective Rodrigo Oliveira-Soares Dublin, 23 February 2012 The views expressed are those of the.

Moldova: Recent Economic Developments Tokhir Mirzoev, IMF Resident Representative January 2011.

THE QLOBAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON AZERBAIJAN by Khagani Abdullayev Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan Acting General Director 1.

Monetary Policy Committee Recent Economic Developments M. Heerah-Pampusa Head - Economic Analysis Division 14 July 2014.

Chapter 6 Macroeconomics the Big Picture 12-1 Copyright  2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

PUBPOL 542: Indonesia Presentation Indonesia : Walking the Fiscal and Monetary Policy Tightrope Jonathan Haney, David Kase, Vishaal Rana Public.

Managing the Growth Shock Warwick J. McKibbin Director, ANU Research School of Economics Presentation to the 2011 Economic & Social Outlook Conference,

The future of the euro still lies in its past Prof. Paolo Savona at the 79th International Atlantic Economic Conference in Milan Session on March 12,2015.

AIECE GENERAL REPORT AUTUMN GENERAL MEETING Brussels, 7-8 November 2013.

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook November 2015.

Overview of Recent Economic and Social Conditions in Africa Economic Commission for Africa Addis Ababa.

Introduction to the UK Economy. What are the key objectives of macroeconomic policy? Price Stability (CPI Inflation of 2%) Growth of Real GDP (National.

Review of the previous lecture Exchange rates nominal: the price of a country’s currency in terms of another country’s currency real: the price of a country’s.

IAGS 2016 independent Annual Growth Survey Give Recovery a Chance 23rd meeting of the Europe 2020 Steering Committee press contact.

Rebooting the EU's Economy Valdis Dombrovskis European Commission Vice President for Euro and Social Dialogue Riga, 2016.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter 17: Interest Rates and Monetary Policy Copyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

1 Commodity price increases: causes, effects and policy responses G20 Conference on Commodity Price Volatility Istanbul, 13 th September 2011 Jonathan.

Global economic forecast November 1st The housing market has stabilised recently but a sustained recovery is unlikely until 2011 Factors putting.

Latest developments in the global outlook, and the situation in Greece 18 February 2015 Alvaro Pereira Director, Country Studies Council.

20 Multiple Choice Questions with Answers

Baltic economic outlook

Economic Conditions and Outlook

The Classical Theory of Inflation

The Euro Area Economy Update

Monetary policy in the early months of 2015

International Economics How Does the Open Macro-economy Work?

Is the Eurozone Recovering?

Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply

All assignments for the unit must be turned in by TOMORROW

Presentation transcript:

European Economic Forecast – Winter 2015 Marco Buti, Director General DG ECFIN EPC Policy Dialogue Brussels, 24 February 2015

Forecast in a snapshot 2  Very gradual and uneven recovery

Steep fall in oil prices Brent oil spot prices (USD/€) 3  How large is the bonus?

Monetary policy has eased further, and financial fragmentation has receded 4 10-year government bond spreads Long term inflation expectations  QE effects may surprise on the upside

Euro has depreciated against major peers 5 Euro exchange rates, USD and JPY Real and nominal effective exchange rate  Who will benefit most?

Fiscal stance neutral in aggregate is appropriate 6 Budgetary developments, EU  Composition and distribution not optimal

Policy measures and lower oil prices stimulating domestic demand 7 Real GDP growth and its components, EU  Though still subdued

Energy prices drive the fall in inflation 8 HICP and sub-components, EU  ECB`s move reduces the risk of a debt-deflationary trap

Unemployment slowly declining, but still high 9 Employment growth and unemployment rate, EU  Past reforms start to pay off

Current-account rebalancing, still lopsided 10 Current-account balance, EU  "In the long run, we`re all … in surplus". Or are we?

Strictness of EPL (regular contracts) Structural reforms needed to boost growth and facilitate rebalancing  Enhance reform responsiveness across the board Strictness of EPL (regular contracts)

Risks to the growth outlook: increased in both directions 12 Risks on the downside: Geopolitical risks Renewed financial volatility Delayed implementation of structural reforms Long period of low inflation Risks on the upside: Full effect of QE Further exchange rate depreciation Larger impact of low oil prices Effect of EU action plan on investment  A bi-modal distribution? Economists and (even more) institutions are not good at spotting turning points

Key messages 13 EU determined policy response needed to attain the good equilibrium: Very accommodative monetary policy appropriate Broadly neutral fiscal policy stance: distribution and composition The Commission’s guidance on the application of the Stability and Growth Pact The EU Investment Plan: implement in all strands Structural reforms: step up the gear also in core countries

Thank you for your attention