ENLIL 3D-MHD Modeling Support of Heliospheric Missions European Space Weather Week, Liege, Belgium, 17-21 November 2014 Dusan Odstrcil (GMU & NASA/GSFC)

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Presentation transcript:

ENLIL 3D-MHD Modeling Support of Heliospheric Missions European Space Weather Week, Liege, Belgium, November 2014 Dusan Odstrcil (GMU & NASA/GSFC) in collaboration with UCSD/CASS and NASA/SWRC space weather teams. NASA/NSF Partnership For Collaborative Space Weather Modeling

WSA-ENLIL-Cone Modeling System  Observationally driven, near-real time modeling system  Routine simulation of corotating streams and CMEs, event-by event  Much faster than real-time

ENLIL Solar Wind Prediction – helioweather.net Experimental, real-time simulation of corotating and transient solar wind disturbances driven by various coronal models. Results are updated daily and are used for validation of a research ENLIL version. MODELS – Daily updated results by various driving coronal models (1.7 AU): MISSIONS – Daily updates results to support heliospheric missions (5.3 AU): ARCHIVE – Animations and temporal profiles in (in progress): EVENTS – selected CME events simulated in higher resolution and presented with more details IPSBDIPSBD-SWRCWSAdub-SWRCWSAduz-SWRCWSAdtb-SWRC JUNOMAVENMESSENGERROSETTASPITZERSTEREO-ASTEREO-B

helioweather.net – Models  Prediction of the solar wind parameters in the inner heliosphere (1.7 AU): - various driving coronal models (left) - various visualization (right)

helioweather.net – Missions  Prediction in the mid-heliosphere (5.3 AU): - various planets/spacecraft (left) - various visualization (right) ROSETTA

Fitted Parameters of CMEs: 2014 Sep-Oct No.DateLatLonRadVel T13: T11:24:00-CME T20: T16:00:00-CME T00: T22:24:00-CME T05: T02:36:00-CME T20: T17:00:00-CME T20: T18:18:00-CME T04: T00:36:00-CME T23: T21:54:00-CME T08: T04:38:00-CME T20: T16:31:00-CME T07: T04:30:00-CME T23: T19:00:00-CME T17: T13:26:00-CME CMEs operationally fitted by SWRC (CMEs with Vel > 800 km/s listed here)

Solar Wind Velocity at Rosetta: T09 Flank of broad CME, captured by strong CIR

Solar Wind Velocity at Rosetta: T02 Flank of broad narrow CNE at weak CIR

Solar Wind Velocity at Rosetta: T12 Broad multi-CMEs with moderate shock in rarefaction

Solar Wind Velocity at Rosetta: T00 Narrow CME with weak shock

Solar Wind Velocity at Rosetta: T06 Broad CME captured by strong CIR

Solar Wind Velocity at Rosetta: T12 Broad CME with moderate shock in rarefaction

Solar Wind Velocity at Rosetta: T15 Narrow CME, no shock, in rarefaction

Solar Wind Velocity at Rosetta: T06 Narrow CME, no shock

Solar Wind Velocity at Rosetta: T03 Narrow CME, weak shock

Solar Wind Velocity at Rosetta: T21 Narrow CME, no shock

Solar Wind Velocity at Rosetta: T16 Broad CME with strong shock within CIR

Shock IMF Connectivity at Rosetta: T00 Slowly moving CMEs, weak velocity jump at IMF-connected shock

Shock IMF Connectivity at Rosetta: T02 Moderate velocity jump at IMF-connected shock

Shock IMF Connectivity at Rosetta: T19 Strong velocity jump at IMF-connected shock

Predicted ICMEs at Rosetta: 2014 Sep-Oct No.:Forward shockDriving ejectaComment T09Flank of broad CME, captured by strong CIR T03Flank of narrow CME at weak CIR T T06Broad multi-CMEs, moderate shock, in rarefaction T T06Narrow CME, weak shock T06Broad CME, captured by strong CIR T T21Broad CME, moderate shock, in rerefaction T15Narrow CME, no shock, in rarefaction T09Narrow CME, no shock T T03Narrow CME, weak shock T00Narrow CME, no shock T T16Broad CME, strong shock, within CIR

Predicted SEP Events at Rosetta: 2014 Sep-Oct No.:BeginEndComment T T12Strong T T00Medium

Summary  Routine simulations up to 5 AU are possible by 3D numerical MHD code ENLIL driven by either WSA-Cone or IPSBD coronal data at 0.1 AU  NASA/GSFC Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) operationally fits geometric and kinematic parameters of all observed CMEs: - 37 CMEs in 2014 Sep (9 CMEs > 800 km/s) - 17 CMEs in 2014 Oct (4 CMEs > 800 km/s)  HelioWeather testbed system provides results from various model variants at Earth and at various heliospheric missions. Predicted disturbances at Rosetta in 2014 Sep-Oct: - complex scenarios involves CMEs overtaken by CIRs - 11 ICMEs: 6 without shock, 5 with shocks (see Table) - 2 SEP events (Sep 1-3, Oct 10-11), other possible (see Figures)  Actual state and predictions:  Further calibration and validation needed