1 Incorporating Sea Level Rise into Capital Planning Overview of Draft Guidance City and County of San Francisco Coastal Hazards Adaptation Resiliency Group (CHARG) July 24, 2014 David Behar Climate Program Director, SFPUC Chair, CCSF Sea Level Rise Committee Services of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission

Draft Guidance: City and County of SF 2

SLR Depictions: BCDC: 2 meters (2007 ) 3 SFO: 3 feet Port Study: 15 and 55 inches (URS, 2011) NOAA Coastal Viewer (1-6 ft, 5 ft pictured)

April 10, 2014 issue of The Urbanist (SPUR) 4

The Wild Wild West …

Current SLR Estimates: CCSF Depts, Projects SFMTA SFO SLR in inches PUC (SSIP) TI/YBI Port (URS) Ocean Beach

7

8 CCSF Sea Level Rise Guidance Focus set by Mayor’s Office: Draft guidance for incorporating sea level rise into capital planning for the CCSF Bring draft guidance to Capital Planning Committee for consideration Enable CPC and departments to better understand and prioritize projects with reference to sea level rise Coordinate and encourage collaboration among all CCSF departments Maintain responsibility for assessment and adaptation within departments, with review and coordination by entity TBD.

Sea Level Rise Committee Members David Behar, PUC (Chair) Lauren Eisele, Port Rosalyn Yu, SFO Frank Filice, DPW Craig Raphael, MTA AnMarie Rodgers, Planning Chris Kern, Planning Tania Shayner, Planning Nohemy Revilla, PUC/SSIP Liaison Anna Roche, PUC/Wastewater Brian Strong, Capital Planning Kris May, AECOM/SSIP Dilip Trivedi, Moffat & Nichol Meetings Began September 27 and approx every two weeks since. Activities Benchmarking review of other jurisdictions: local, state and national Survey of CCSF activities with SLR nexus (many found) In-depth review of the science Survey of regulatory context One half-day workshop Writing Draft Guidance 9

10 A Range of Ranges: “Confusion Meets Catastrophication” Sea Level Rise – 210S RANGES 39

Science and Regulatory Landscape – a sampling 11

CCSF Draft Guidance: Flexible; Considers Both Likely and Extreme Scenarios; Reflects Best Available Science 12

CCSF Draft Guidance: SLR Figures 13 Sea Level Rise Scenarios – 21 st century (inches) 1 1 from National Research Council 2012

Sea Level Rise and Extreme Tide Matrix Source: SFPUC, Sewer System Improvement Program (AECOM)

36” SLR 36” SLR + King Tide (48” total) 36” SLR year flood (77” total) 2100 Most Likely SLR + Events* Source: Sewer System Improvement Program, Draft Inundation Maps Assumes no adaptation measures implemented

SLR Guidance: Steps in the Process 1. SLR Science Review 2. Vulnerability Assessment 3. Risk Assessment 4. Adaptation Planning... Permitting and Regulatory Considerations 16

Elements of Draft SLR Guidance (cont) 2. Vulnerability Assessment: Which assets are vulnerable to sea level rise? A. Exposure B. Sensitivity C. Resilience 17

Elements of Draft SLR Guidance (cont) 3. Risk Assessment: Which vulnerable assets are at greatest risk (prioritization opportunity)? A. Likelihood B. Consequence 18

Elements of Draft SLR Guidance (cont) 4. Adaptation Planning: For those assets at risk, what will we do to increase their resilience to sea level rise? Building on previous steps to create resilience Adaptive capacity, adaptive management 19

Elements of Draft SLR Guidance (cont) 5. Permitting and Regulatory Considerations Coastal Commission BCDC CCSF General Plan 20

“Adaptive Capacity” Two definitions in literature we’ve reviewed: 1) Inherent resilience: asset will be flooded but not be harmed, or flooding will not be a problem. Examples: a) a park floods, but it’s not harmed; b) A road floods, but another road is available for use 2) Adaptive management: asset can be made resilient to shorter term SLR, and planning/footprint can allow future resilience measures when more is known. 21

AIA Citation: “Presentation by Dilip Trivedi at AIA - San Francisco Chapter, 10/17/13” “ADAPTATION” Raise Embankments

AIA Citation: “Presentation by Dilip Trivedi at AIA - San Francisco Chapter, 10/17/13” “ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT” Raise Embankments…Again!

AIA Citation: “Presentation by Dilip Trivedi at AIA - San Francisco Chapter, 10/17/13” Elevated Development Area Adaptive Strategies at Perimeter Wide Setback Areas to Allow Future Adjustment for Sea Level Rise Establish Project Generated Funding Mechansim Treasure Island - Sea Level Rise Approach

Thank you! David Behar Climate Program Director San Francisco Public Utilities Commission 525 Golden Gate Avenue, 10 th Floor San Francisco, CA