Center of Excellence COMPLEX EMERGENCIES Characteristics / Realities / Threats Col (Ret) Peter Leentjes Center of Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance

Center of Excellence COMPLEX EMERGENCIES  Describe current models  Establish the Environment  Discuss Features & Process  Threats

Center of Excellence Twelve Top Indicators  Mounting Demographic Pressures  Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies  Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia  Chronic and sustained Human Flight  Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines  Sharp or Severe Economic Decline Pauline Baker & Angeli Weller

Center of Excellence Twelve Top Indicators (Cont’d)  Criminalization and/or Delegitimizing of the State  Progressive Deterioration of Public services  Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights  Security Apparatus Operates as a “State within a State”  Rise of fictionalized Élites  Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors Pauline Baker & Angeli Weller

The Complex Emergency Model

Center of Excellence Definition “A complex emergency is a humanitarian crisis in a country, region or society where there is a dramatic disruption in the political, economic and social situation, resulting from internal or external conflict or natural disaster, seriously disrupting the population’s capacity to survive and the national authorities’ capacity to respond, and which requires a consolidated multi-sectoral international response” IASC of the United Nations

Center of Excellence Modern Complex Emergencies Disaster Response Humanitarian Assistance Peace Operations

Center of Excellence Disaster Response Humanitarian Assistance Peace Operations Range of Military Activity Support Combat Security Compliance Operations Support Security Modern Complex Emergencies

Center of Excellence Disaster Response Humanitarian Assistance Peace Operations Range of Civilian Activity Support CM Humanitarian Mitigation Modern Complex Emergencies

Center of Excellence Modern Complex Emergencies Disaster Management Humanitarian Assistance Peace Operations Civil - Military Coordination

Center of Excellence What Is Driving This New Model?

Center of Excellence Notion of State Security  Shift from military security to human security  Individual rights are predominate  State is shrinking - smaller governments, larger  State is shrinking - smaller governments, larger demands  Threats to national and trans-national security  National security is now linked to regional security - trans-border threats  Globalization & privatization are reducing nation’s reach and ability to control many aspects impacting on the nation

Center of Excellence ECONOMIC SHIFT  Changing expectations – individual based  Emboldened populations  Increased economic disparity  Increased poverty – challenge to stability  Economic diversion of resources

Center of Excellence SHIFT FROM INTERSTATE TO INTRASTATE CONFLICT  Incidence of violence within states increasing  Compromises the prosperity / stability / survival of the state  Internal conflict provides the breeding ground for Terrorism and Infectious Disease  Internal conflict cannot be contained within borders

Center of Excellence SOVEREIGNTY  No longer exclusive domain of the state  State legitimacy is eroding  Human rights  Globalization of resource movement  International accords  Pluralism – ethnicity  Movement of populations

Features of Complex Emergencies

Center of Excellence Disrespect for Humanitarian Norms  Civilian Casualties are not incidental but the outcome of political strategies  Civilians targets have become the objective  90% of Casualties are civilian  The full brutality of conflict is focused on the civilian community  Loss of immunity for humanitarian workers  formerly could work without threat/fear  today they are often targets  aid is politicized  NGOs, ICRC/MSF have all suffered  Impact on the ability of the humanitarian agencies to deliver aid

Center of Excellence Use of Humanitarian Action to Substitute for Political Action  Humanitarian action is being used as a stopgap which may make the situation worse not better  Humanitarian work is undermined in the absence of measures focused on resolving the underlying causes of suffering

Center of Excellence Chaotic Conditions in Intra-State Conflict  More intractable conflicts exist - difficult to resolve  Brutality is on the increase  Landmines are found in dozens of countries million estimate  Small Arms proliferation

Center of Excellence Presence of Military and Humanitarians in a Complex Emergency  Neutrality of the Humanitarians is affected  Military focus on short term rather than long term political solutions  The role and capacities of the military in peace operations  Differing levels of security possible

Center of Excellence Dilemmas of Humanitarian Assistance  Focused on the basis of need - can create animosities  Aid has become a political tool  Aid can make the security situation worse  Aid may be fueling the conflict  Aid as a source of revenue –Theft –Extortion –Black market –Part of the problem

Center of Excellence RECENT TRENDS  Increased Risks for Field Staff of all Organizations in the Field  aid is politicized  has become a player in the conflicts  UN Affiliation  in the past a shield and protection  today, regardless of legal process includes risk  International Organizations/NGOs  all at risk

Center of Excellence THREATS THAT CREATE COMPLEX EMERGENCIES  Ongoing Conflict  Population Displacement  Emerging or Re-emerging Infectious Disease  Terrorism  Globalization

Center of Excellence ONGOING CONFLICT u Cannot be contained within borders u Weapons proliferation in regions u National interests of the neighbors u Lack of or weak international response u Resource extraction u Financial Gains u Criminal activities u Aid as a tool to continue conflicts

Population Displacement The Number 2 Threat

Center of Excellence Population Displacement  Legal Concept of Displaced –Refugees - narrow definition & international support –IDPs - not supported –Economic Refugees –Those fleeing natural disasters –Migrants –Evacuees –Expelled  Present Major Security Threat

Center of Excellence Refugees as a Threat  Not a threat in themselves  High numbers present a direct economic and cultural threat  Provision of services to refugee populations stress host nations  If they do not receive aid they destroy the local natural resources  Location of camps & control by host nation  Breeding ground for Terrorism within camps  Armed individuals - How do you deal with them  Aid provided by locals - yet they cannot receive aid  Threat to the local economy  Destroy the local labor market

Center of Excellence Emerging and Re-emerging Diseases

Center of Excellence INCLUDE DISEASE IN THE SECURITY AGENDA  Emergent diseases pose a significant challenge to security and national interests - Impairs State capacity to maintain security  Non traditional threat – how do you define it in the spectrum of national interests (vital - war, important – devote resources)  Challenges orthodox theories of international relations  Normal evaluation of the threat based on relative military capacities is no longer valid– pales in comparison

Center of Excellence INCLUDE DISEASE IN THE SECURITY AGENDA (Cont’d)  Disease is much more harmful to the Nation and National security  Shift to internal state conflict provides a breeding ground for new diseases  Vectors:Population dislocations & their consequences, living styles, international travel, extended commerce, climate change, war or economic decline  Cannot be contained within borders

Center of Excellence  Deadly Seven - TB, HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Hepatitis B/C, Respiratory Infections, Diarrheal Diseases, measles  Emergent Infectious Disease  Ratio of Deaths From Disease to War - 52:1  Potential Weapon of War  Potential Economic Weapon  Enormous Implications for State Survival, Stability, Prosperity, socio-economic development  Trade Embargoes & Travel Restrictions INFECTIOUS DISEASE

Center of Excellence REASONS FOR RESURGENCE NEW VECTORS  Population dislocations  Sudden population movements (humanitarian emergencies)  Living styles – urbanization  Rising international travel  Extended commerce  Inappropriate use of antibiotics  Breakdown of public health due to conflict or economic decline  Climate changes

Center of Excellence IMPLICATIONS FOR STATE SURVIVAL/STABILITY/PROSPERITY  Premature death and debilitation of the population  Erodes worker productivity  Undermines state prosperity and legitimacy  High levels of psychological stress in population  Fosters internal and external migration  Migration to cities  Threatens states ability to defend itself and project force  Generates institutional fragility

TERRORISM The conflict tool of the 1990s

Center of Excellence Terrorism is Not New  Weapon of choice in intra-state conflict  Targeting of civilians in conflict  Rape as a weapon of war  The destruction of cultural and religious monuments  Ethnic cleansing  Genocide  Forced population displacements  Bombing  Killing of political opposition  Attacks on ethnic groups

Center of Excellence Globalization  Ability to Participate in Economic Models  Slow Socioeconomic Development  Challenge to Democratic Development  Provoke Economic Decay, social Fragmentation, Political Destabilization  Pressures on National Support Services such as Health

Center of Excellence CONSEQUENCES OF THE THREATS  State capacity and security is impaired  Diminishes prospects for state survival and prosperity  Destroys State ability to meet needs –Survival –Protection from physical harm (internal, external, ecological threats) –Economic prosperity –Territorial integrity –Effective governance –Stability   Generates Conflict