Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand Prepared for: Universitas Ciputra Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand Chapter 4 Phillip Kotler & Kevin Lane Keller

Marketing Research is a systematic design collection, analysis and reporting of data and finding relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company

Suppliers of Marketing Research Engaging Students or Professors to design and carry out projects Using the internet Checking out rivals Research Firms: Syndicated-service research firms Custom marketing research firms Specialty-line marketing research firms Syndicated- service research firm: research company gathers consumer and trade information which it sells for a fee; eg. Ac nielsen Custom marketing research firm: research company provides research subject to customer’s order Specialty-line marketing research firm: specialize in specific market/industry; eg. Service firm, FMCG firm, etc

Marketing Research Process 1. Define the Problem & Research Objectives 2. Develop the Research Plan 3. Collect the Information 4. Analyze the Information 5. Present the Findings 6. Make the Decision

1. Define the Problem & Research Objectives Neither too broad nor too narrow Three types of Objectives: Exploratory Research Descriptive Research Causal Research Exploratory research: find out the real nature of the problem and suggest possible solution or new ideas Descriptive research: seek quantify demand, such as how many certain customer would purchase certain product Causal research: to test cause and effect relationship

2. Develop Research Plan [1] Data Sources Primary Data Secondary Data Research Approaches Observation Focus Group Survey Behavioral Data Experiment Research Instrument Questionnaire Technological Devices Qualitative Measure: Word association Visualization Brand personification

2. Develop Research Plan [2] Sampling Plan Sampling Unit Sampling Size Sampling procedure Sampling Procedure Probability Sample Simple Random Sample Stratified Random Sample Cluster Sample Non Probability Sample Convenience Sample Judgment Sample Quota Sample Contact Method Mail Telephone Personal Arranged Intercept Online Click stream Cookies

3. Collect the info The need to achieve consistency Cross-cultural research; the need to use different approaches Bias

The next processes 4. Analyze the Info 5. Present Findings Test different hypotheses & theories Applying sensitivity analysis 5. Present Findings Relevant to the need 6. Make the Decision

Overcoming the Barriers to the Use of Marketing Research A narrow conception of the research Uneven caliber of the researcher Poor framing of the problem Late and occasionally erroneous findings Personality and presentational difference

The Seven Characteristics of Good Marketing Research Scientific method Research creativity Multiple methods Interdependence of model and data Value and cost information Healthy skepticism Ethical Marketing

Measuring Marketing Productivity Marketing Metric Measuring Marketing Plan Performance Profitability Analysis Marketing Mix Modeling

Marketing Metric The set of measures that help firm to quantify, compare and interpret their marketing performance (asses marketing effect) Short-term result; eg. profit & loss, sales turnover, etc. Changes brand equity; eg. customer awareness, attitude, behavior, marketing share, etc.

Sample of Marketing Metric External Internal Awareness of goal Commitment to goal Active innovation support Resources adequacy Staffing/skill level Desire to learn Willingness to change Freedom to fail Autonomy Relative employee satisfaction Awareness Market share (volume or value) Relative price (volume or value) Number of complaints (level of dissatisfaction) Customer satisfaction Distribution/availability Total number of customers Perceived quality/esteem Loyalty/retention Relative/perceived quality

Measuring Marketing Plan Performance Sales variance analysis Relative contribution of different factors to a gap in sales performance Microsales analysis Look at specific products, territories and expected sales Sales Analysis Overall market share Served market share Relative market share Market Share Analysis Marketing Expenses to Sales Analysis Financial Analysis

Profitability Analysis Identifying functional expenses Assigning functional expenses to marketing entity Preparing a profit and loss statement for each marketing entity Marketing Profitability Analysis Determining Corrective Action Direct cost Traceable common cost Non-traceable common cost Direct versus Full Costing

Forecasting & Demand Measurement Measures Market Demand Vocabulary for Demand Measurement Estimating Current Demand Estimating Future Demand

The Measures of Market Demand World; National; Regional; Territory; Customer Space Level All Sales; Industry Sales; Company Sales; Product-line Sales; Product-form Sales; Product item Sales Product Level Short run; Medium run; Long run Time Level

Which Market to Measure? Market: Actual Buyer + Potential Potential Market: Interest Available Market: Interest, Income, Access Target Market (served = target market) Penetrated Market (who are buying the company’s product)

A Vocabulary for Demand Measurement Market Demand Marker Share (Market Penetration Index-Share Penetration Index) Market Forecast (Product Penetration Percentage) Market Potential Company Demand Company Sales Forecast (sales quota, sales budget) Company Sales Potentials

Estimating Current Demand Total Market Potential Area Market Potential Industry Sales and Market Shares TMP = max amount of sales that might be available to all the firms in an industry during a given period, under a given level of industry marketing effort and environmental conditions. Area market potential: a company will allocate different marketing budget in different territories since the market potential in each area is different Industry sales and market share: it is important for a company to know its share in a specific industry/market, etc. Eg. If the overall industry’s market demand increases by 10% but the company’s demand increases 5%, it means the company loose its market.

Estimating Future Demand Three stages Procedure: Macroeconomic Forecast eg. inflation, interest rate, unemployment, etc Industry Forecast Company Sales Forecast

Survey of Buyer’s Intentions Forecasting: the art of anticipating what buyers are likely to do under a given set of condition Composite of sales force opinion Expert opinion (Group Discussion Method; Pooling of Individual Estimates) Past Sales Analysis (Time-Series Analysis; Exponential Smoothing; Statistical Demand Analysis; Econometric Analysis) Market Test Method