Overview: Global and Pakistan’s Water Resources and Challenges by Ashfaq Mahmood (Retd Federal Secretary) 18 December 2014 LEAD Cohort 18

Organization of Presentation Global Water Resources Pakistan’s Water Resources

Total volume of Water on Earth is about 1. 4 billion Km3 (1 Total volume of Water on Earth is about 1.4 billion Km3 (1.135 billion MAF) Freshwater is around 35 million Km3, or about 2.5% of the total volume. (28.375 million MAF) About 24 million Km3 (27 million MAF) or 70 percent of fresh water is in the form of ice and snow and about 30% is ground water. Freshwater lakes and rivers contain an estimated 0.105 million Km3 or around 0.3 %. (0.105million Km3 comprises of: Lakes: 67.5%, Soil Moisture 12%, Atmosphere 9.5%, wet land 8.5%, Rivers 1.5%, Vegetation: 1%) The total usable freshwater supply for ecosystems and humans is about 0.2 million Km3 of water - less than 1 percent of all freshwater resources. Water scarcity already affects more than 40 percent of the people on our planet. By 2025, 1.8 billion people and 2/3rd of the world’s population under water stress

Phenomenon of Climate Change Green House Gasses Trap Heat (CO2,CH4,N2O and Fluorinated Gasses) Global Warming due to GHG Climate Change Major changes in temperature (Global warming) , precipitation, or wind patterns

Effects of Climate Change Increase in air temperature: 1906—2005 by 0.74 C (0.44 C occurring during 1980—2005) Additional 4 C by 2050 1—7 C by 2070 Increase in sea level: 3—16 cm by 2030 7—50 cm by 2070 Estimated 8.4---10% reduction in precipitation in next 50 Years (2050) Concentration of rains and snow/glacier melt flows in summer. Lesser non-monsoon flows and prolonged dry spells (droughts) affecting agriculture. Increased summer flows in shorter time spans accentuating floods in next few Decades. Shortages in the long run. Greater Frequency of floods .

Effects of Climate Change (Contd) More glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF), Cyclones, El Ninos, Heat Waves, Tornados, Snow Avalanches, Dust Storms due to soil erosions, Tsunamis, Effects on coastal systems, Ecosystems (coral reef communities, mangroves, wetland, fish etc) , Land slides, etc Estimated cost of adapting to the impacts of a 2°C rise in global av. temperature is US$70 to $100 billion per year between 2020—2050

Some Impacts of Climate Change on Life and Society Human Life (Affect Poorest of the Poor ) Drinking, sanitation, food/agriculture, health, Industry, Mining Natural Ecology Birds, plants, trees, animals, fish, microorganisms, soil and people Economy GDP, Industries, Agriculture, Exports, Labour employment, Hydro Power– lesser capacity , increased variability, increased cost Poverty, food Insecurity, and electricity prices, urban migration, deterioration of rural life and environments.

World Water Challenges Pressures on Water Rapid Urbanization Climate Change Food Security Demands of sectors other than Domestic and Agriculture sectors. Pollution, Quality, Environments, Eco-systems Current Situation: 85% of the world population lives in the driest half of the planet. Clean drinking Water not accessible by 780 million people almost 2.5 billion without adequate sanitation. Agriculture accounts for ~70 to 90 % of global freshwater withdrawals 2 billion people worldwide depend on groundwater, which includes approximately 300 transboundary aquifer systems. Six to eight million people die annually from the disasters and water-related diseases. Future Outlook Declining per capita availability due to population growth. Predicted increase in food demand of 70% by 2050. Effects of Climate Change—More intense floods, shortages, glacier melt Estimated cost of adapting to the impacts of a 2°C rise in global av. temperature is US$70 to $100 billion per year between 2020—2050

Water Resources (Pakistan)

Major Rivers in Pakistan and India Occupied-Disputed Territory

Indus Basin Replacement Works R-Q C-J M-R Q-B T-S T-P B-S II S-M

COMMON RIVERS WITH AFGHANISTAN IN KPK

Sources of Surface Water Glacier and Snow Melt About 80 %of Water is received in Indus System through glacier & snow melt. Rainfall Pakistan is one of the world’s most arid countries – over 75% of it receives rainfall less than 250 mm annually and 20% of it less than 125 mm. 3. Seasonal Availability Availability Kharif: 82%, Rabi: 18%

AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOWS OF WESTERN RIVERS (Post Tarbela 1976-2008) (Canal Diversion=104 MAF)

Effects of Climate Change (Pakistan) Glacier melt resulting in more water in next 30-50 years followed by severe reduction. Higher degree of variability of water flows More extreme events like droughts, floods, cloud burst, cyclones, sea water rise, salt intrusion, avalanches etc. Change in pattern of monsoon systems---shift towards east.

Water Use and Demand

WATER USE PATTERN 2030 2005

Average Water Resource Availability and Use Surface Water Avail 141 MAF Down Stream Kotri 31 MAF River Basin Losses 04-06 MAF CANAL DIVERSIONS 104 MAF Conveyance Losses 46.6 MAF (44.8%) (Canal & Distributaries 22 MAF (21%) & Watercourses 24.6 MAF (30%)) CANAL WATER AVAILABLE AT FARM HEAD 57.4 MAF Ground Water 50.3 MAF NET WATER AVAILABILITY AT FARM HEAD 107.7 MAF Field Losses 27 MAF (25%) NET WATER AVAILABILITY FOR CROP CONSUMPTIVE USE 80.8 MAF Water requirement: 101.7 MAF Short fall =101.7-80.8=20.9 MAF If average rainfall= 13.4 MAF, Deficit= 7.5 MAF Rainfall Contribution: Depends ! Overall efficiency of use of surface water=.79*.7*.75= 41.5 %. Achievable 55%

Land Utilization Total Land Area 79.61 Total Area reported 57.76 Million Hectares Total Land Area 79.61 Total Area reported 57.76 Forest Area 3.8-4.26 Total Cultivable Area 33.77 Cultivated Area 22.10-24.64 Not cultivated but otherwise fit 8-11 Irrigated Area 18.04-18.67 Canal Irrigated Area 6.81 Canal and Tubewells 7.4 Wells and Tubewells 3.65 Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan (2011-12)

Water Requirements and Availability at Farmgate (Estimates) All Figures in MAF Sr. No. SECTOR Year 2004 Year 2025 Improved yields and efficiencies* Business as usual 1 Agriculture 111.35 120 135 2 Water use above RIM stations 3.0 6.00 3 Drinking and Sanitation 8.2 12.20 4 Industrial 3.80 Sub-Total 125.55 142 157 Availability (including local water harvested/pumping besides main river water and ground water for agriculture) 113 6 Water shortage 12 29 44 7 Estimated Escapages below Kotri 7.5** *Assuming 50% increase in crop yields and 22% increase in efficiency **Tentative figure in the Water Accord was 10 MAF. As per Studies Average figure of 7.5 MAF is adopted.

ESCAPAGE BELOW KOTRI HYDROLOGICAL YEAR FROM APRIL TO MARCH Note: Based on data supplied by I&P Deptt: Govt. of Sindh 24

Water Storage Dams

Current Live Storage Capacity (MAF) RESERVOIR ORIGINAL LIVE STORAGE LIVE STORAGE 2004 LIVE STORAGE 2014 TARBELLA 9.68 (1976) 7.16 6.45 MANGLA 5.34 (1967) 4.53 6.63—7.39 CHASHMA 0.87 (1971) 0.44 0.28 TOTAL 15.89 12.13 14.12 Loss due to higher operating levels of Tarbela = 0.511 MAF Rate of loss at Tarbela = 103,000 Acre Feet per Year Rate of loss at Mangla = 32,000 Acre Feet per Year Rate of loss at Chashma = 22,000 Acre Feet per Year 1% of original capacity lost per year.

Average Annual flow (MAF) Storage Capacity (MAF) AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOW AND STORAGE CAPACITY OF DAMS OF SOME MAJOR RIVER BASINS Sr. No. River Basin Average Annual flow (MAF) No. of Dams Storage Capacity (MAF) % age Storage 1 Colorado 12 3 59.62 497 2 Nile 38 132 475 Sutlej Bias India (Total) 32 750 5 4,636 11.32 245 35 33 4 Yellow River 345 7 68.95 20 Columbia 179 34 19 6 Indus & others Rivers 145 13.64 13 Yangtze 870 8 World 20,000 - 8,000 40

Hydro Power Potential : Over 60000 MW (Storage and Run of River) Installed : 6481 MW Cost of Generation: 2-6 cents/KWh against 12-17 cents /KWh for thermal generation Current Hydro-Thermal Mix : 30:70

Productivity & Efficiency of Use of Water

Water Productivity

Drinking Water

Water Quality Status-Pakistan 85% of samples tested were unfit for human consumption Protection Agency, in14 districts of Punjab (EPA) Surface water sources ( lakes & rivers) have massively been polluted (Tanneries, Chemical Wastes, Domestic Garbage Dump) 75% of water in Islamabad and 87% in Rawalpindi are unsafe (WB-CWRAS Paper 8, 2005). An excess of arsenic and fluoride concentrations In Sindh almost 95% of shallow groundwater supplies are bacteriologically contaminated (Pak-SECA 2006). Health Cost and Lost Earning on account of drinking water, sanitation, hygiene= Rs112 billion/ annum (Over Rs 300 million/Day)

Contamination Intrusion Routes Distribution Network

Groundwater Arsenic Contamination Mr. Azad, chronic arsenic patient-Bangladesh Arsenic Patient ( 1100 ppb) from Nawabshah- Pakistan

Ground Water Over Mining

Summary of Issues and Challenges

Major Water Resource Issues and Challenges (Pakistan) Declining Water Availability per capita Future Water Availability to Decline due to Climate Change More Floods, Droughts, variability of Flows on the Cards Ground Water Exploitation Need to be Regulated. Water Shortage Agri: 7.5 MAF (present), 26 MAF (2025) More Inter-sectoral Competition for Water Low Productivity and Efficiency of Transmission and Use Cultivable land available but not yet cultivated. More Seasonal Variability: Availability Kharif: 85%, Rabi: 15% New Storages – Victim of Lack of Consensus Under Utilization of Hydro Generation Potential Drinking Water : Poor Quality, Inadequate Quantity, Infrastructure, neglect, apathy Sanitation ??? Trans-boundary water threats Financing ???

Possible Response to Issues and Challenges Population Control Prepare for Climate Change. More Dams– Seasonal and Yearly Carry Over Invest in rehabilitation of infrastructure and regular maintenance. Use modern technology and practices to improve productivity , efficiency, watershed management conservation, harvesting and re-use Special Attention to Drinking Water and Sanitation Protect Trans-boundary Water Use Media to educate masses Financing Price Water properly Regulators for monitoring quality, curbing wastages, ground water extraction and proper service to ordinary users. Improve Governance and build Human Resources Build Knowledge, Collect Knowledge, Disseminate Knowledge Water has to be on the centre stage

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