A Developing Power System: Challenges & Prospects (Case study on Bangladesh) Monir Hossain Graduate Student (PhD) Electrical Engineering University of New Orleans

Bangladesh at a Glance Official Name : People’s Republic of Bangladesh INDIA CHINA Official Name : People’s Republic of Bangladesh Political System : Parliamentary Democracy Population : 158 million Area : 147,570 km2 Time Zone : GMT+6 Hours GDP Per Capita : USD 829 (FY 2013) GDP Growth Rate: 6-7% (High compare to other SARAC countries) Major Maritime Ports: Chittagong, Mongla Currency : BDT (1 BDT = USD 0.014) Major Industries : Textile & RMG, Jute, Pharmaceuticals, Ship breaking DHAKA KHULNA RAJSHAHI SYLHET CHITTAGONG BARISAL INDIA 200 miles 500 km 2

Bangladesh Power System Year 1972 Infrastructure: Generation: 165MW 132kV Line: 1583 ckt km 66kV Line: 167 ckt. km

Bangladesh Grid Network Year 2003 Infrastructure: Generation: 3200MW 230kV Line: 1365 ckt. km 132kV Line: 4961 ckt. km 230/132kV SS: 7 (3150 MVA) 132/33kV SS: 63 (5507 MVA)

Bangladesh Power System Year 2014 Infrastructure: Generation: 10GW 400kV Line: 54.7 ckt. km 230kV Line: 3038 ckt. km 132kV Line: 6224 ckt. km HVDC Station: 1 (500 MW) 230/132kV SS: 17 (7525 MVA) 132/33kV SS: 103 (11780 MVA)

Historical Energy Net Generation (GWh) in Bangladesh 6

Present Structure of Power Sector Apex Institution Power Division, Ministry of Power, Energy & Mineral Resources (MPEMR) Regulator Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) Generation  Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)  Ashuganj Power Station Company Ltd. (APSCL)  Electricity Generation Company of Bangladesh (EGCB)  North West Power Generation Company Ltd. (NWPGCL)  Independent Power Producers (IPPs) Transmission  Power Grid Company of Bangladesh Ltd (PGCB) Distribution  Dhaka Power Distribution Company (DPDC)  Dhaka Electric Supply Company Ltd (DESCO)  West Zone Power Distribution Company (WZPDC)  Rural Electrification Board (REB) through Rural Co-operatives

Bangladesh’s Power Sector: At a Glance 2014 Electricity Growth : 10% Generation Capacity (MW) 10,213 Maximum Generation (MW) 7,556 Total Consumers (in Million) 14.2 Transmission Lines (ckt.km) 9,322 Distribution Lines (km) 288,787 Per Capita Generation (including Captive) 321 Access to Electricity (including Off-Grid Renewable) 62% 8

Primary Fuel Supply Options Gas: Only 16 TCF proven reserve. No significant gas discovery in recent years. Depleting gas reserve restricts gas based generation expansion Hydro: Present capacity 230 MW. No further significant potential Coal: Total 3.2 billion ton reserve in 5 mines. Mines are located at dense populated area. Oil: Depends on importing. Renewable: Present capacity only 70 MW. High prospect of solar. 9

Present Installed Generation Capacity Public Sector SL. Installed Generation Capacity (MW) 1. BPDB 4186 2. APSCL 777 3. EGCB 622 4. NWPGCL 300 5. RPCL 77 Subtotal 5,962 (58%) Private Sector IPPs 1330 SIPPs (BPDB) 99 SIPPs (REB) 226 15 YR. Rental 167 3/5 YR. Rental 1929 6. Power Import 500 4,251 (42%) Total 10,213 Considering 20 % Maintenance and Forced Outage, Available Generation Capacity is about 7500 MW without fuel constraint 10

Fuel Mix: FY-2013 11

Typical Summer Load Curve MW

Typical Winter Load Curve MW

Estimated Future Demand MW 14

Challenges Huge demand supply gap causes regular load shedding High growth rate of electricity due to new electrification & industrial growth Fuel crisis due to depleting gas reserve Arranging fund for investment

Scopes & Prospects Efficiency improvement of existing power plants. Fuel diversification. Regional power trading.

Efficiency improvement of existing power plants. Total gas based power plants: 6500MW Average efficiency of gas based power plants: 30% Efficiency of modern CCPP (Gas)= 60% Possible output using same amount of gas= 13000MW

Fuel Diversification Coal: Local Coal + Imported Coal Solar:

Road Map for Coal Power Development K-D-P 6x1000 MW Meghnaghat 2x660MW Chittagong 4x660MW Moheshkhali/Matarbari 4x660MW Khulna 2x660MW Railway Total 14,000MW Coal Center Chittagong Matarbari Sonadia Island 　　: Potential Coal PS 　　: Potential Coal Center 　　: Ocean-going vessel 　　: Transship

Solar Power Huge potential in solar Land constraint Rooftop Solar Panels Islands for Mega Solar Bangladesh

Regional Power Trade

Hydro Power Potential & Transmission corridor Solar Power India needs corridor Nepal & Bhutan has excess potential Huge prospect in solar Main limitation: Land constraint Islands can be identified for solar (2000MW) 60GW 80GW 30GW Bangladesh

Regional Power Exchange: Possibilities 6.5GW 6x6.5GW 1GW 6.5GW 2GW 4-6GW 1GW 1GW

Probable Power Generation: Primary Fuel Sources by 2030 Sl. No. Description Capacity (MW) Probable Location (s) 1 Domestic Coal 6,000 North West Region at Mine Mouth 2 Imported Coal 8,000 Chittagong and Khulna 3 Domestic Gas 13,000 Near Load Centers 4 Solar 2,000 Islands, Rooftop 5 Regional Grid 8,000-10,000 Barapukuria, Jamalpur, Dhaka, Bheramara 6 Others (Oil, Hydro) 15,00 Total 41,500

Recommended Strategic Policy Ensuring Investment Friendly Environment Efficient use of gas: Simple Cycle to Combined Cycle Conversion Coal Policy Deep Sea Port & Coal Centre Locations Identification for Mega Solar Friendly Relation with Neighbor’s Participation on Hydro Power Development Projects (India, Nepal & Bhutan)

THANKS