Maritime Piracy Event & Location Data Project Brandon C. Prins – Department of Political Science & Howard Baker Center for Public Policy, University of Tennessee Ursula Daxecker – Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam Pirate Attacks, Project Goals Explore the structural and micro-level drivers of modern maritime piracy Geo-code all pirate attacks worldwide Cross-check data against other available data collection efforts Build database on pirates and pirate organizations through expert surveys Create online web portal to access incident-level data and filter on several piracy characteristics Dynamically map geo-coded piracy data Forecast piracy globally and in specific country contexts Shareable Data Created Global Piracy Incidents Database (GPI) – Data on piracy events recorded at the incident, country-month, and country-year levels. Information on important correlates of piracy also contained in the data-files. Mapping Pirate Organizations Database (MPO) – Survey data on pirate organizations in four or five piracy-prone countries. Maritime Piracy Event and Location Dataset (MPELD) – Geo-spatial coding of piracy incidents Theoretical Conjectures Modern maritime piracy driven by opportunity, willingness, and loss of strength gradient. Fragile and corrupt governing institutions provide opportunity Poverty, inequality, and overall joblessness provide willingness (grievance) Physical topography of country interacts with state weakness to produce loss of strength gradient. Pirates strategically consider loss of strength gradient in their location considerations. Climatic conditions impact timing of attacks Piracy may be connected to insurgent groups as funding source Global Maritime PiracySub-Saharan African Piracy Key Figures of 2013 Global piracy counts down 11% from 2012 and 40% from 2011 Greater Gulf of Aden piracy drops dramatically from 2011 (152 incidents) to 2013 (13 incidents). Greater drop if include incidents off Seychelles and Maldives. Piracy in Indonesian waters increases by over 70% from 2011 to 2013 Nigerian piracy increases by over 160% from 2011 to 2013 Bunkering of transport oil now a threat not only in Guinea Gulf waters. Success rate of pirate attacks over 90% in Indonesian waters but only around 50% in the Gulf of Guinea (location of attack important. Only 15% of attacks in Indonesian waters occur while ships are steaming. Over 75% of attacks in Nigerian waters occur while ships are steaming. Somali Piracy 2011Somali Piracy 2013 SE Asian Piracy Steaming Vessels SE Asian Piracy Stationary Vessels MPELD Database Over 6,000 geo-coded piracy incidents Currently Currently inputting 2014 Filters include country, time of day, ship characteristics, whether ship was underway, pirate-specific information. Online data portal currently under construction for visualizing collected information. Pirate attacks consistently occur in SE Asia near & around Malacca Straits Somali increase beginning in 2009 appears to be an anomaly Analytical model forecasts 248 pirate attacks in 2014 (currently 162) Research Accomplishments Ursula Daxecker & Brandon Prins “The New Barbary Wars: Forecasting Maritime Piracy.” Forthcoming in Foreign Policy Analysis. Ursula Daxecker, Brandon Prins, & Amanda Sanford “Terror on the High Seas.” SAIS Review Fall Brandon Prins, Ursula Daxecker & Amanda Sanford “The New Barbary Wars: Assessing the Threat of Modern Day Piracy.” Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, Policy Brief Series 3:13. Maritime Piracy Event & Location Dataset, June 2014 Report: Focus on Piracy in Sub-Saharan Africa. Ursula Daxecker and Brandon Prins “Enforcing Order: Territorial Reach and Maritime Piracy.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association Meeting, Toronto, Canada, March 26-30, (Invited) Ursula Daxecker and Brandon Prins “Seeking Sanctuary: Government Power and the Location of Piracy.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Political Science Association, Edinburgh, Scotland, June 18-22, (Invited) Ursula Daxecker. “Piracy and Counterpiracy.: Presented at the Free University Amsterdam, February 20, 2014, Amsterdam, NL. (Invited) Brandon Prins. “The Threat of Maritime Piracy.” Presented at the Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, March , Knoxville, TN. (Invited) Somalia, Nigeria, and Tanzania are most piracy- prone countries Pirates increasingly attack ships underway Distance from coast to pirate attacks has increased Piracy in Sub-Saharan Africa appears more violent than elsewhere Pirate success rates have declined Plurality of attacks occur between midnight and 6am. Drivers of piracy remain strong in Sub-Saharan African countries All forms of political violence have increased over the past 5 years in Sub-Saharan Africa Climatic patterns may affect piracy in some countries Heat Map of Piracy Terrorist Attacks Armed Conflict