Part IV: Historical Climate Changes Lecture 18: The Little Ice Age (Chapter 15)

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Presentation transcript:

Part IV: Historical Climate Changes Lecture 18: The Little Ice Age (Chapter 15)

Frequency of sea ice intrusion along the coast of Iceland MW: LIA: Vikings invaded southwestern Greenland Vikings abandoned Greenland

Canada arctic lichen Dead lichen due to snow expansion indicates the time of LIA

Mountain glacier: Annual layer, δ 18 O, Dust content,

Ice core in Peruvian Andes MWLIA

Ice cores in four regions MW LIA Warming? Global? Temperature change, not uniform! MW and LIA seems to be present in tropical mountain glaciers, but not obvious in Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Tasmanian tree rings MW? LIA? Not obvious in SH Unprecedented warming?

Reconstructed NH temperature (hockey stick pattern) MW?LIA? Global warming?

Longest Instrument record LIA? Global warming?

Temperature stations, Urban heat island effect

Global surface temperature

Source: D. Fagre, USGS, 2004 Recession of the Grinnell Glacier “Glacier National Park”

Kilimanjaro ice extent (km 2 ) ?

Little Penck Glacier, Kilimanjaro

Sea level rise 5cm upper ocean warming, 3 cm land ice melting, 2 cm Greenland ice melting

Increased cloud cover Unclear warming or cooling effect because unknown high or low clouds

Arctic sea ice Arctic clouds (warming or cooling?)

The growing season lengthens in Alaska

Tree Ring Width Obs. Trend Tree ring Tair Model Obs. P ~ R

Global Greening Trend Global Greening Trend Total CO2 Physiology Carbon fertilization Radiation Obs. >1980 Obs. – crops (FPAR: Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation)

Decrease in snow cover

Reduced Arctic sea ice cover and thickness !

Global Lake Open/Close Date Lake Mendota

2) Is it cause by orbital forcing of reduced summer insolation or millennial variability? Fundamental Questions on MW/LIA 1) Are these change regional or global? 3) What caused the rapid warming since 1900 that terminates the LIA?

Forcing mechanism for centennial and decadal variability Solar forcing Natural variability: PDO, NAO

11 year cycle: solar radiation and sunspots

More Sunspots More solar radiation from faculae

Sunspot history from telescopes

Forcing mechanism for interannual variability Volcanic forcing Natural variability: ESNO Relation between ENSO and volcanic activity?

Eruption of Mount Pinatobo in 1991 and global cooling

(Tropical) Volcanic cooling

End of Lecture 19

Lecture 20: El Nino, La Nina and Southern Oscillation (Chapter 16)

Change of Climate Variability Tropical Pacific SST

El Nino and Southern Oscillation: ENSO

Historical record of El Nino

Corals and tropical ocean Annual layers made of CaCO3, take ocean water δ 18 O (a proxy of temperature, but also with salinity effect) LIA? El Nino

Evolution of the last 21,000 yrs Deglaciation, but not smooth

Change of Climate Variability Tropical Pacific SST

1935 Texas (Dustbowl) 1997 Kansas

Global surface temperature

SAHEL RAINFALL North Africa Climate Change S. Nicholson Charney Charney ? SST decadal variability!

Global US Wisconsin Madison Climate Change: Global to Regional Perspective

End of Lecture 20

Tibet ice core

Tree-ring (dendroclimatology)

Arctic tree ring Asian tree ring Strong centennial /decadal variability

Natural Climate Variability