Flux-anomaly-forced model intercomparison project (FAFMIP) Steering committee: Jonathan Gregory (University of Reading, UK, and Met Office, UK) Stephen.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Global climate responses to perturbations in Antarctic Intermediate Water Jennifer Graham Prof K. Heywood, Prof. D. Stevens, Dr Z. Wang (BAS)

Advertisements

Cloud Feedback Katinka Nov 7,2011 *Photo taken by Paquita Zuidema in Maldives.

Global trends in air-sea CO 2 fluxes based on in situ and satellite products Rik Wanninkhof, NOAA/AOML ACE Ocean Productivity and Carbon Cycle (OPCC) Workshop.

4. Ocean Temperature The equilibrated ocean surface temperature anomalies in EPR0 and EPR2 are shown below ( o C). The responses at low latitudes, where.

Jon Robson (Uni. Reading) Rowan Sutton (Uni. Reading) and Doug Smith (UK Met Office) Analysis of a decadal prediction system:

Climate Forcing and Physical Climate Responses Theory of Climate Climate Change (continued)

Using observations to reduce uncertainties in climate model predictions Maryland Climate Change Workshop Prof. Daniel Kirk-Davidoff.

Thermohaline Circulation

Predicting Global Warming ENVS 110 ( ). Source: Commonwealth of Australia 2006, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN )

Reconciling net TOA flux/ocean heating in observations and models 5-yr running means (Smith et al. 2015)Smith et al Spurious ocean data? CERES ERBS/reconReanalysis/recon.

Projections of sea level change Jonathan Gregory NCAS-Climate, University of Reading Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter.

Overview of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and IPCC AR5 Activities Ronald J Stouffer Karl Taylor, Jerry Meehl and many others June 2009.

LINKING INFORMATION FROM SSS TO OCEANIC FRESHWATER FLUXES USING NEAR-SURFACE SALINITY BUDGETS NADYA T. VINOGRADOVA 1 RUI M. PONTE 1 MARTHA W. BUCKLEY 2.

US CLIVAR Themes. Guided by a set of questions that will be addressed/assessed as a concluding theme action by US CLIVAR Concern a broad topical area.

Land Use and Climate Change Stephanie J Houser Earth Climate Systems

Report on Ice Sheet Modelling Activities David Holland Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences New York University, NY USA Jonathan Gregory Walker Institute,

Lecture 14 Climate Sensitivity, thermal inertia. Climate Sensitivity The change in equilibrium temperature per unit of radiative forcing.

Sensitivity of atmospheric near-land temperature in Northern Europe to SST Andrey Vlasenko, Armin Köhl, Detlef Stammer University Hamburg.

High Climate Sensitivity Suggested by Satellite Observations: the Role of Circulation and Clouds AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, 9-13 December, 2013.

WP4.1: Feedbacks and climate surprises ( IPSL, HC, LGGE, CNRM, UCL, NERSC) WP4.1 has two main objectives (a) to quantify the role of different feedbacks.

6.4.8: Explain how convection affects weather patterns and climate.

LLNL-PRES-XXXXXX This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

How Does Climate Change Affect Biomass Accumulation in Boreal Ecosystems? Earth Science B Period 2012.

Temperature trends in the upper troposphere/ lower stratosphere as revealed by CCMs and AOGCMs Eugene Cordero, Sium Tesfai Department of Meteorology San.

1.Introduction 2.Description of model 3.Experimental design 4.Ocean ciruculation on an aquaplanet represented in the model depth latitude depth latitude.

Quaternary Environments Climate and Climatic Variation.

UNIT 3: Earth-Sun Relationships

Projecting changes in climate and sea level Thomas Stocker Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern Jonathan Gregory Walker.

Using Global Ocean Models to Project Sea Level Rise Robert Hallberg NOAA / GFDL.

R.Sutton RT4 coordinated experiments Rowan Sutton Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling Department of Meteorology University of Reading.

Future Climate Projections. Lewis Richardson ( ) In the 1920s, he proposed solving the weather prediction equations using numerical methods. Worked.

Members G. Danabasoglu(co-chair) National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA H. Drange (co-chair) University of Bergen, Norway M. MarslandCSIRO, Australia.

Impact of freshwater release in the Southern Ocean on the Atlantic Didier Swingedouw.

© Crown copyright Met Office AR5 Proposed runs for CMIP5 John Mitchell, after Karl Taylor, Ron Stouffer and others ENES, arch 2009.

Research Needs for Decadal to Centennial Climate Prediction: From observations to modelling Julia Slingo, Met Office, Exeter, UK & V. Ramaswamy. GFDL,

Global Warming Projections for the IPCC SAR and TAR using simple models Sarah Raper.

Motivation Quantify the impact of interannual SST variability on the mean and the spread of Probability Density Function (PDF) of seasonal atmospheric.

Radiative Feedback Analysis of CO2 Doubling and LGM Experiments ○ M. Yoshimori, A. Abe-Ouchi CCSR, University of Tokyo and T. Yokohata National Institute.

Nov.8, 2005CORE III protocol, Hobart Reaction of the oceanic circulation to increased melt water flux from Greenland - a test case for ocean general circulation.

Warm air near the Earth’s surface rises and then cools as it goes back up. Convection happens on a global scale in the atmosphere and causes global winds,

Climate feedback on the marine carbon cycle in CarboOcean Earth System Models J. Segschneider 1, E. Maier-Reimer 1 L. Bopp 2, J. Orr 2 1 Max-Planck-Institute.

Climate Modeling Research & Applications in Wales John Houghton C 3 W conference, Aberystwyth 26 April 2011.

© Crown copyright Met Office Uncertainties in the Development of Climate Scenarios Climate Data Analysis for Crop Modelling workshop Kasetsart University,

AOMIP status Experiments 1. Season Cycle 2. Coordinated - Spinup Coordinated - Analysis Coordinated 100-Year Run.

Physical Feedbacks Mike Steele Polar Science Center University of Washington Steve Vavrus Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin Co-Chairs:

Chapter 6 Future climate changes Climate system dynamics and modelling Hugues Goosse.

Art or Science?. Explain the thermal transfers of energy within oceans and the importance of oceanic conveyor belts.

How Convection Currents Affect Weather and Climate.

1/39 Seasonal Prediction of Asian Monsoon: Predictability Issues and Limitations Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center

Modelling Steric Sea Level Rise

Australian CMIP6 Modelling Plans ACCESS-CM2/ESM2

Influence of climate variability and

Task 3.2 : Arctic warming impacts : role of air-sea coupling

The Earth is not flat neither is the sea

Unit 14: The Future of Humanity

Ronald J Stouffer Karl Taylor, Jerry Meehl and many others

Mark A. Bourassa and Qi Shi

WP3: Linkages of Arctic climate changes to lower latitudes

NCAR-GFDL Workshops on Model Development

model intercomparison project (FAFMIP)

Modeling the Atmos.-Ocean System

Tore Furevik Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen

Heat Transport by the Atmosphere and ocean

National Center for Atmospheric Research

CO2 forcing induces semi-direct effects

Climate 6.E.2.B.4.

Interactions between the Oceans and the Atmosphere

Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading

Comparing the Greenhouse Sensitivities of CCM3 and ECHAM4.5

Presentation transcript:

Flux-anomaly-forced model intercomparison project (FAFMIP) Steering committee: Jonathan Gregory (University of Reading, UK, and Met Office, UK) Stephen Griffies (GFDL, USA) Detlef Stammer (University of Hamburg, Germany) The goal is to account for the spread in simulated ocean response to changes in surface fluxes resulting from CO 2 forcing. This is an aspect of the CMIP6 science question on the Earth system response to forcing. Specific interests are The model spread in geographical patterns of predicted sea level change due to ocean circulation and density change (GC on regional sea level rise). The global ocean heat uptake efficiency, which affects global mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion (GC on regional sea level rise) and the TCR. The magnitude of change in the AMOC, which affects regional climate (GC on regional climate information). The ocean’s role in determining patterns of SST change (GC on climate sensitivity) and ocean temperature change near to ice-shelves (GCs on regional sea level rise and changes in cryosphere).

Ocean-dynamical effect on regional sea level change (relative to global mean sea level rise) Yin (2012) CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 at 2100 Model meanStandard deviation CMIP5 and earlier models show a large diversity in the patterns of predicted sea level change due to ocean circulation and density change. FAFMIP will study the part of the spread due to the ocean’s response to changes in surface forcing.

Effect of separated surface flux changes on ocean In previous work a single AOGCM has been subjected to surface flux changes from a each of a range of CMIP3 AOGCMs, showing that part of the spread in regional sea level rise comes from the forcing fluxes. FAFMIP will do the converse, by applying the same surface flux changes to various AOGCMs. The influences of CO 2 -forced changes in heat, windstress and freshwater fluxes will be distinguished, which has not been done before in most AOGCMs. FAFMIP is an ocean analogue of the CFMIP patterned-SST-change experiment. Sea level change (wrt global mean) in FAMOUS AOGCM forced by CMIP5 windstress changesurface heat flux change m (Bouttes and Gregory, 2014)

FAFMIP experiments All are idealised. They all have piControl atmospheric composition (1xCO2) and are parallel to piControl. The AOGCM has surface fluxes applied to the ocean in addition to those computed interactively by the atmosphere, technically like the old technique of flux adjustment. The prescribed additional surface fluxes are functions of longitude, latitude and time of year, obtained fromCMIP5 model- mean changes in surface fluxes at the time of 2xCO2 (year 70) in 1pctCO2, and constant throughout the FAFMIP experiments, which are all 70 years long. Tier 1: stressFAF: add a perturbation to windstress (surface momentum flux, tau[uv]) heatFAF: add a perturbation to surface heat flux into ocean water (hfds) waterFAF: add a perturbation to surface freshwater flux into ocean water (wfo) Tier 2: allFAF: impose the windstress, heat and water flux perturbations together, to test the linearity of combination of their influences. passiveheat: add the heat flux perturbation as a passive tracer; by comparison with heatFAF we can quantify the effect of the feedback of ocean heat advection on surface heat flux (Winton et al., 2013). In all FAFMIP experiments, the parallel portion of piControl, and abrupt4xCO2 and 1pctCO2, we particularly request the process-based diagnostics of ocean temperature and salinity change proposed by the OMDP (Griffies et al.).