REDUX: REMAKES, REVIVALS AND RECREATIONS 12 TH ANNUAL CASE CONFERENCE.

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Presentation transcript:

REDUX: REMAKES, REVIVALS AND RECREATIONS 12 TH ANNUAL CASE CONFERENCE

DROUGHT AND SUMMER WEATHER UPDATE CASE Annual Summer Conference June 12, 2015

s drought

Record Low Palmer Severity Index

Lowest Summer PDSI Since 1550

National Drought Monitor October 4, 2011

Texas Drought Time Series

March-April Rainfall

May Rainfall Nationally

May Record Rainfall

May Rainfall Departure from Normal

Texas May Rainfall Stats Rainfall averaged 8.93 inches. Wettest May on record. Wettest month ever (Previous was 6.66 inches in June 2004). Wettest spring on record. Wettest Jan-May on record.

Buffalo Bayou-Houston

Barton Springs Pool Austin

Trinity River Dallas

Soil Moisture has Improved

Texas Reservoir Levels

Comparison with Jan. 1 Jan 6, 2015Jun 9, 2015

Blame it (mostly) on El Niño!

El Niño in Place, Growing Stronger 27 USAChina Australia

Typical Effects of El Niño

El Nino

Temperature Rainfall

NWS Rainfall Outlook

NWS Temperature Outlook

NMME July-August-September Rainfall Outlook

NMME July-August-September Temperature Outlook

NMME Sep-Oct-Nov Rainfall Outlook

Looking Out Longer Term

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies 38

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies 39

Gray and Klotzback Outlook “We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century”. 8 named storms (average is 12) 3 hurricanes (average is 6.5) 1 major hurricane (category 3,4 5) (average is 2)

Tropical Storm Ana

Bob Rose LCRA Chief Meteorologist Questions?