WATER IN COP 21 PARIS DECEMBER 2015 Dongyu Feng Sonny Kwon Tiffany Wu

DRIVERS OF CHANGE Climatic: precipitation, evaporation (streamflow, infiltration, soil moisture content…) Non-climatic: demographic, socioeconomic, technological factors

OBSERVED IMPACTS

PROJECTED IMPACTS ON WATER INFRASTRUCTURE Agriculture: irrigation demand will likely increase Energy production (hydropower): uncertain Municipal services: decrease in both water quality and quantity Indirect impacts: urban planning, tourism, political and social conflicts

ADAPTATION

Adaptation options being designed to ensure adequate water supply 1. Climate change challenges the conventional assumptions and may alter the reliability of water management systems. 2. There are some supply-side and demand-side adaptation options, designed to ensure supplies during average and drought conditions.

1. Supply-side options generally involve increases in storage capacity or abstraction from water courses. 2. Demand-side options may lack practical effectiveness.

 Options for autonomous adaptation are largely extensions or intensifications of existing risk management and production enhancement activities, and are therefore already available to farmers and communities.  Planned adaptation solutions should focus on developing new infrastructure, policies, and institutions that support, facilitate, co-ordinate and maximize the benefits of new management and land-use arrangements. AUTONOMOUS AND PLANNED ADAPTATION

 Adoption of varieties/species with increased resistance to heat shock and drought;  Modification of irrigation techniques, including amount, timing or technology;  Adoption of water-efficient technologies to ‘harvest’ water, conserve soil moisture (e.g. crop residue retention), and reduce siltation and saltwater intrusion;  Improved water management to prevent waterlogging, erosion and leaching; modification of crop calendars, i.e., timing or location of cropping activities; implementation of seasonal climate forecasting. AUTONOMOUS ADAPTATION

 Address climate change in development programs;  Increase investment in irrigation infrastructure and efficient water-use technologies;  Ensure appropriate transport and storage infrastructure;  Revise land tenure arrangements (including attention to well-defined property rights);  Establish accessible, efficiently functioning markets for products and inputs (including water pricing schemes) and for financial services (including insurance). PLANNED ADAPTATION

 Physical or ecological  Technical, political or social  Economic  Cultural and institutional  Cognitive and informational LIMITATIONS OF ADAPTATION

ABOUT UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE Purpose: Achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, from all the nations of the world to limit global temperature increase to 2 o C “The scientific reality of climate disruption and its serious consequences are now established. The means to act exist and are known. The expected benefits of such global action are clear. Political will now needs to be sufficiently strong for each country to commit itself..” - Manuel Pulgar-Vidal and Laurent Fabious, Chairs of COP20 and COP21

PROCESS OF COP21 February 2015 First Meeting in Geneva Draft negotiating document March 2015 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) May 2015 Final draft of negotiating document Nov 30 to Dec 11 COP21 in Le Bourget, France Agreement on Negotiating document

PARTICIPANTS Developing countries Developed Countries Least Developed Countries Alliance of Small Island States African Group Group of 77 and China Environmental Integrity Group Umbrella GroupEU Other Coalitions of Developing Countries  BASIC  LMDC  Coalition for Rainforest Nations  Alianza Bolivariana para los pueblos de Nuestra America  League of Arab States  CARICOM

WILL WATER BE AN ISSUE IN COP 21? Water Use and Scarcity EC includes water and sanitation as 1 of 17 goals UNCCD addresses land degradation neutrality African Development Bank addresses food security

MAJOR EMITTERS PLAN OUTLINE Joint Clean Energy Research and Development – launching new track on energy-water nexus Enhanced Water Recovery pilot project ChinaUSEU Reach peak emissions by 2030 Increase non-fossil fuels to 20% of energy mix by 2030 Reduce emissions % below 2005 levels by 2025 Cut GHG by at least 40% by 2030 No discussion on water

THANK YOU Questions?