WHY DO SOME DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BECOME AND STAY DEMOCRATIC? WHY DON’T OTHERS?

WHAT IS DEMOCRACY? AND WHAT ISN’T IT (A REFRESHER!) What institutions matter most? What procedures matter most? How do we empirically measure whether a country is democratic? Why does measurement matter? The “two-turnover test” Freedom House rankings (details follow)

WHAT ARE THE PREQUISITES FOR DEMOCRACY? No political polarization around insurmountable differences Economic/social structure Elite attitudes Previous experiences with democracy Why does democracy happen in waves? A certain mass political culture?

HOW DO COUNTRIES BECOME DEMOCRATIC? Types of transitions: Government-dominated Negotiated Bottom-up replacement The “Players”: Hard-liners, soft-liners; moderates Preference orders Process tradeoffs: Short-term vs. long-term Economic vs. political transition Justice and reparations

WHAT MAKES DEMOCRACIES ENDURE? Consolidation requires legitimization Behavioral vs. attitudinal (norms) dimensions Elites, civil society, mass public The behavioral dimension The infrastructure of lasting democracies A strong civil society Independent media Political society (especially political parties) Institutions for the rule of law and citizenship Rational administration with state accountability A regulated market economy?

IS THE THIRD WAVE OVER? Larry Diamond: There are only 30 core democracies, 8 of which are micro states Looming threats Economic and performance crises; inequality Civic decay and state violence Nationalist and theocratic movements Authoritarian enclaves and examples Impediments to reversal Professionalization of militaries Cultural penetration of democracy No global alternative ideology Trade relationships and organizations

DEMOCRACY AND GROWTH? WHAT DIRECTION IS THE RELATIONSHIP? Three possibilities: X  Y; Y  X; Spurious variable A  both X & Y. And then there is the “sometimes” factor: necessary vs. sufficient causality. Why do democracies excel? Voters care about economic performance a lot! Checks and balances: deliberation & consensus Political monopoly tends to turn into economic monopoly The free flow of information and transparency pressures Adaptability and crisis management Does a focus on growth mean democracy will follow? It is hard to liberalize economies under democracy State capitalism provides an alternative to democratic growth Authoritarian regimes are getting better at suppressing and using bad elections and propaganda: They’ve learned how to break the link between growth and democracy (for now) Why does inequality matter? (veils of ignorance and democracy)