Demographic Transition Model An explanation of the move from high birth rates/death rates to low birth rates/death rates in industrialized (developed) countries

Stages of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Demographic Transition Model a theory to explain human population change based on idea that all societies want to transition from pre-modern to postmodern experience of richer, fully developed states (Europe, US, Australia…) - beginning about 1700: population surge! (Industrial Revolution, colonization…) based on experience of richer, fully developed states - underwent population surge beginning about 1700 in Europe and then stabilized Other states (typically ex-colonies of Western Europe - U.S., Australia or states in close proximity such as Russia) underwent similar process Every other place can be seen somewhere in the transitional process that these states have gone through Generally begins with high birth rates, high death rates, passes into high birth rate, lower death rate period, and ends with low birth rates an dlow death rates Growth rate is low (maybe even negative) in beginning and the end Massive increases in the middle that make the model compelling and explain what’s happening in today’s world Birth rate - how many people born per 1000 people (US 14/1000) Death rate - how many die (US 8/1000)

Important Demographic Words Demographic- statistical characteristics of a population Birth rate- childbirths per 1,000 people per year Ex. US- 14 Death rate- deaths per 1,000 people per year Ex. US- 8 Infant mortality rate- number of babies who die before the age of 1 per 1,000 per year Ex. US- 6.5

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)- the average number of children that would be born to a woman during her child bearing years Ex. US- 2.1 Replacement Rate- number of children a women needs to have to replace the current population- 2.1. Not 2 to account for deaths. Lesser developed countries have a higher Replacement Rate. Life Expectancy- average number of years that people live. Ex. US- males- 75; females- 80

Population Pyramids

Stage 1 premodern hunter-gatherers

Stage 1: Low Growth Birth rate high death rates high Why? Pre-industrial societies Much human suffering Birth rate high death rates high Why? Epidemics, plagues, famines and wars High IMR Cost of raising a child = low Children are “insurance” for parents in their old age

Population Pyramid – Stage 1 No States Some isolated populations, such as rainforest tribes

Stage 2 - long stretch of time… from hunter-gatherer stage to agriculturalists to factory workers Agricultural Revolutions leads to specialization leads to formation of villages and towns (urbanization) further advancements lead to creation of machines

Stage 2: High Growth Death rates decline, but birth rates remain high  population explosion Why? Improved sanitation Greater food supply b/c of improvements in agriculture (crop rotation) Europe – agricultural revolution  industrial revolution Can lead to migration

Population Pyramid – Stage 2 Ex: Yemen, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Laos, most of Sub-Saharan Africa, states in Central America

File info into your brain! Cloud= File info into your brain! Words with Friends= Work with a partner Discuss 2 things that you learned or found interesting about STAGE 1 or 2 of the DTM!

Stage 3 - most states in the planet are in this stage

Stage 3: Moderate Growth Significant decline in birth rates Need for children Urbanization Education Child labor Contraception use Women’s rights Family planning clinic in Kuala Terenganu, Malaysia

Population Pyramid – Stage 3 Ex: India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Costa Rica, Nicaragua

Stage 4 - fully developed, post-industrial, mostly Western nations

Stage 4: Low to Zero Growth Birth & death rates low Stable (but high) population TFR ≤ 2.5 Can include baby booms Birth rates lowest where women are most involved in workforce Beach in the Netherlands – few children

Population Pyramid – Stage 4 Ex: US, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, most of Europe, Sri Lanka, Iran, China

Stage 5: Negative Growth Not part of original DTM Death rates higher than birth rates Declining population TFR ≤ 2.1 High life expectancy and low labor force In developed countries Japan’s aging population presents different population problems

Population Pyramid – Stage 5 Ex: Japan, Hong Kong, many East European and East Asian countries

File info into your brain! Cloud= File info into your brain! Words with Friends= Work with a partner Discuss how population changes as countries become more developed. Are the changes positive or negative? Why?