Hurricane forecasts with Regional NMMB: Impact of HWRF Physics Weiguo Wang and Vijay Tallapragada EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD 20740 Mar. 2015 1.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Multi-physics Multi-IC Ensemble Plan for 2012 Hurricane Season Zhan Zhang and Vijay Tallapragada NCEP/EMC HFIP Regional Ensemble Conference Call March.

Advertisements

1 NCEP Operational Regional Hurricane Modeling Strategy for 2014 and beyond Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA/NWS, NCWCP, College Park, MD National.

Impact of cumulus parameterization on motion, structure, intensity: preliminary results Robert Fovell and Yizhe Peggy Bu University of California, Los.

A NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES A.V.Starchenko Tomsk State University.

Sensitivity of the HWRF model prediction for Hurricane Ophelia (2005) to the choice of the cloud and precipitation scheme Yuqing Wang and Qingqing Li International.

Hurricane Model Transitions to Operations at NCEP/EMC 2009 IHC Conference, St. Petersburg, FL Robert Tuleya*, V. Tallapragada,Y. Kwon, Q. Liu, Zhan Zhang,

UU Unitah Basin WRF Model Configuration (same as DEQ) See Alcott and Steenburgh 2013 for further details on most aspects of this numerical configuration:

Discretizing the Sphere for Multi-Scale Air Quality Simulations using Variable-Resolution Finite-Volume Techniques Martin J. Otte U.S. EPA Robert Walko.

NCEP/EMC Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Modeling System 1 Vijay Tallapragada JCSDA-HFIP Workshop on Satellite Data Assimilation.

Advancements to the Operational HWRF Modeling System at EMC Vijay Tallapragada Hurricane Team Lead Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA/NWS Camp Springs,

Operational Hurricane Model Diagnostics at EMC Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop NHC, Miami, FL 4 May 2009 – 6 May 2009 Vijay Tallapragada,

PBL simulated from different PBL Schemes in WRF during DICE

Jared H. Bowden Saravanan Arunachalam

Ensemble Forecasting of Hurricane Intensity based on Biased and non-Gaussian Samples Zhan Zhang, Vijay Tallapragada, Robert Tuleya HFIP Regional Ensemble.

Observing System Simulation Experiments to Evaluate the Potential Impact of Proposed Observing Systems on Hurricane Prediction: R. Atlas, T. Vukicevic,

Dynamical Downscaling of CCSM Using WRF Yang Gao 1, Joshua S. Fu 1, Yun-Fat Lam 1, John Drake 1, Kate Evans 2 1 University of Tennessee, USA 2 Oak Ridge.

2013 Upgrades to the Operational GFDL/GFDN Hurricane Model Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA Isaac Ginis, BijuThomas,

Recent performance statistics for AMPS real-time forecasts Kevin W. Manning – National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR Earth System Laboratory Mesoscale.

Convection-permitting forecasts initialized with continuously-cycling limited-area 3DVAR, EnKF and “hybrid” data assimilation systems Craig Schwartz and.

Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) Stacey Pensgen ESC 452 – Spring ’06.

1 NGGPS Dynamic Core Requirements Workshop NCEP Future Global Model Requirements and Discussion Mark Iredell, Global Modeling and EMC August 4, 2014.

Outline Regional Hurricane NMMB Progress

Christina R. Holt 1,2,3, Greg Thompson 1,4, Ligia Bernardet 1,2,3, Mrinal Biswas 1,4, Craig Hartsough 1,2,3 Testing Hurricane WRF with Alternate Radiation.

Hurricane forecasts with Regional NMMB: Impact of HWRF Physics Weiguo Wang and Vijay Tallapragada EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD TCRF/69th IHC Mar.

HWRF Model Sensitivity to Non-hydrostatic Effects Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop May 4, 2009 Katherine S. Maclay Colorado State University.

1 Short term plan to assist 2011 HWRF implementation HFIP Stream 1 Regional Hurricane Model Diagnostics Planning Meeting, 11/08/2010.

Current issues in GFS moist physics Hua-Lu Pan, Stephen Lord, and Bill Lapenta.

Jamie Wolff Jeff Beck, Laurie Carson, Michelle Harrold, Tracy Hertneky 15 April 2015 Assessment of two microphysics schemes in the NOAA Environmental Modeling.

The Hurricane Weather Research & Forecasting (HWRF) Prediction System Next generation non-hydrostatic weather research and hurricane prediction system.

Evaluation of Potential Impacts of Doppler Lidar Wind Measurements on High-impact Weather Forecasting: A Regional OSSE Study Zhaoxia Pu and Lei Zhang University.

Progress Towards a High- Resolution HWRF Samuel Trahan, Vijay Tallapragada (EMC/NCEP/NOAA) S.G. Gopalakrishnan and X. Zhang (HRD/AOML/NOAA)

Hurricane Model Transitions to Operations at NCEP/EMC 2007 IHC Conference, New Orleans  Robert Tuleya*, V. Tallapragada,  Y. Kwon, Q. Liu, W. O’Connor,

Advanced Hurricane Prediction A plan for research and development Naomi Surgi February, 2005.

Mesoscale Modeling Review the tutorial at: –In class.

2011 operational HWRF model upgrades EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Young C. Kwon, V. Tallapragada, R. Tuleya, Q. Liu, K. Yeh*, S. Gopal*, Z. Zhang, S. Trahan and J.

Jerold Herwehe 1, Kiran Alapaty 1, Chris Nolte 1, Russ Bullock 1, Tanya Otte 1, Megan Mallard 1, Jimy Dudhia 2, and Jack Kain 3 1 Atmospheric Modeling.

Atmospheric Modeling in an Arctic System Model John J. Cassano Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Atmospheric.

On the Multi-Intensity Changes of Hurricane Earl (2010) Daniel Nelson, Jung Hoon Shin, and Da-Lin Zhang Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University.

Improvements of WRF Simulation Skills of Southeast United States Summer Rainfall: Focus on Physical Parameterization and Horizontal Resolution Laifang.

Prediction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones with the Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) Model Jimy Dudhia Wei Wang James Done Chris Davis MMM Division, NCAR Jimy.

Implementation of New Air-Sea Exchange Coefficients(Cd/Ch) into the Operational HWRF Model: Impact on Hurricane Intensity Forecast Skill Young C. Kwon,

Evaluation and Development of Ensemble Prediction System for the Operational HWRF Model Zhan Zhang, V. Tallapragada, R. Tuleya, Q. Liu, Y. Kwon, S. Trahan,

Comparison of Different Approaches NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this work is partially.

Jian-Wen Bao (NOAA/ESRL/PSD) Sara A. Michelson (NOAA/ESRL/PSD) S. G. Gopalakrishnan (NOAA/AOML/HRD) In Collaboration with Frank Marks (NOAA/AOML/HRD) Vijay.

winter RADIATION FOGS at CIBA (Spain): Observations compared to WRF simulations using different PBL parameterizations Carlos Román-Cascón

Non-hydrostatic Numerical Model Study on Tropical Mesoscale System During SCOUT DARWIN Campaign Wuhu Feng 1 and M.P. Chipperfield 1 IAS, School of Earth.

Higher Resolution Operational Models. Operational Mesoscale Model History Early: LFM, NGM (history) Eta (mainly history) MM5: Still used by some, but.

Earth-Sun System Division National Aeronautics and Space Administration SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005 Regional Modeling using MODIS SST composites Prepared.

Jian-Wen Bao Christopher W. Fairall Sara A. Michelson Laura Bianco NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division in collaboration with N. Surgi, Y. Kwon and V.

Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.

Erik Crosman 1, John Horel 1, Chris Foster 1, Erik Neemann 1 1 University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Sciences Toward Improved NWP Simulations of.

Rick Saylor 1, Barry Baker 1, Pius Lee 2, Daniel Tong 2,3, Li Pan 2 and Youhua Tang 2 1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory.

Higher Resolution Operational Models. Major U.S. High-Resolution Mesoscale Models (all non-hydrostatic ) WRF-ARW (developed at NCAR) NMM-B (developed.

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP): Where do we stand after 3 years? Bob Gall – HFIP Development Manager Fred Toepfer—HFIP Project manager Frank.

A JHT FUNDED PROJECT GFDL PERFORMANCE AND TRANSITION TO HWRF Morris Bender, Timothy Marchok (GFDL) Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas (URI)

Tropical Transition in the Eastern North Pacific: Sensitivity to Microphysics Alicia M. Bentley ATM May 2012.

Research on the HWRF Model: Intensification and Uncertainties in Model Physics Research on the HWRF Model: Intensification and Uncertainties in Model Physics.

Ensemble variability in rainfall forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011) Molly Smith, Ryan Torn, Kristen Corbosiero, and Philip Pegion NWS Focal Points: Steve.

Modeling and Evaluation of Antarctic Boundary Layer

Evaluation of regional climate simulations with WRF model in conditions of central Europe Jan Karlický, Tomáš Halenka, Michal Belda, (Charles University.

Naomi Surgi and HWRF Team Naomi Surgi and HWRF Team NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN ™

Yuqing Wang Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii The 65 th IHC, February 28-March 3, 2011.

Consortium Meeting Feb 07, Our Audience, Hits: January 2013.

1 Naomi Surgi and the HWRF Team NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN.

Hurricane Model Transitions to Operations at NCEP/EMC 2006 IHC Conference, Mobile, AL Robert Tuleya, S. Gopalkrishnan, Weixing Shen, N. Surgi, and H.Pan.

Brian Freitag 1 Udaysankar Nair 1 Yuling Wu – University of Alabama in Huntsville.

Higher Resolution Operational Models

Hurricane Model Transitions to Operations at NCEP/EMC 2008 IHC Conference, Charleston, SC Robert Tuleya*, V. Tallapragada, Y. Kwon, Q. Liu, W. O’Connor,

Coupled atmosphere-ocean simulation on hurricane forecast

IMPROVING HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTS IN A MESOSCALE MODEL VIA MICROPHYSICAL PARAMETERIZATION METHODS By Cerese Albers & Dr. TN Krishnamurti- FSU Dept.

Presentation transcript:

Hurricane forecasts with Regional NMMB: Impact of HWRF Physics Weiguo Wang and Vijay Tallapragada EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD Mar

Outline Importance of physics in Hurricane forecast HWRF physics packages into NMMB Hurricane simulations with regional NMMB + NMMB with ‘NAM physics’ vs with ‘HWRF physics’ + NMMB with ‘HWRF phys’ vs operational HWRF Summary and Future work 2

Introduction + The Nonhydrostatic Multi-Scale Model on B grid (NMMB) is the second generation of nonhydrostatic models developed at NCEP. It performs well, and replaced WRF-NMM (HWRF’s dynamic core) years ago in NAM. + NMMB has the potential to continue to advance our hurricane forecast capability, given good parameterizations of hurricane physics. + Storm intensity and track are sensitive to the parameterizations of physical processes such as PBL, convection, microphysics, radiation, even land surface exchange + HWRF physics package has been well tested, and performed well to simulate hurricane structure in addition to intensity and track. 3

HWRF physics to NMMB Following physics schemes used in operational HWRF have been added to NMMB: 1.GFSPBL scheme 2.GFDL surface layer plus GFDL land surface scheme 3.SAS scheme 4.MESO-SAS scheme 5.Add empirical z 0 for hurricane to MYJ surface scheme NMMB has “fer”, “fer_high” micophysics schemes, and “gfdl”, “rrtmg” for radiation; those are very similar to HWRF’s. 4

How to use - Options in configure files # turbulence: gfspblhur convection: sashur sfc_layer: gfdl land_surface: gfdlslab - Tunable variables can be changed in configure files, default values are those currently-used in HWRF # RUN_TC=.true. ! true='run hurricane' sas_pgconvar_ric sas_shal_pgconcoef_ric_l shallow_convcoef_ric_s sas_shalconvALPHA sas_mass_fluxSFENTH sas_mommixDISHEAT 5

Operational HWRF vortex Initial conditions GFS 0.5-degree data Boundary Conditions NPS NMMB configure_file_d01 namelist.nps Post/Tracker Graphics Can be replaced by spectral data Will be replaced by NMMB-DA/INIT Flow chart for tests 6

Configuration 01 “Hwrfphys” turbulence: gfshur sfc_layer: gfdl land_surface: gfdlslab convection: sashur microphysics: fer shortwave: gfdl longwave: gfdl Configuration 02 “NAM-like” turbulence: myj sfc_layer: myj land_surface: noah convection: bmj microphysics: fer shortwave: gfdl longwave: gfdl NMMB Hurricane simulations domains, 43-level, feedback=0.5 No ocean, no DA 7

ARTHUR simulated by regional NMMB with HWRF phys 8

HWRF phys NAM phys 9

36 hr, near landing 10m wind E-W cross section NAM physHWRF phys 10

Compare NMMB using HWRF phys with Operational HWRF NMMB (red) Intensity very close to HWRF (purple), and even better timing of max 11

Another NMMB run: turbulence: gfspbl sfc_layer: myj ( z 0 modification ) land_surface: noah Comparison of myj/noah- LSM and GFDL/slab from NMMB runs. 12

Summary 13 With HWRF phys package, regional NMMB can well simulate hurricane structure, intensity and track, showing potential to further advance NCEP capability to hurricane forecast. Comparison with physics options in NAM shows importance of using good physics parameterizations for hurricanes. Future work: improve nest motion algorithm, other components (e.g., DA + init) from HWRF system, …