Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 1 List of Nominations The Changing Debate on Climate Eric J. Barron National Center for Atmospheric Research

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 2 List of Nominations Every credible scientist recognizes that increases in greenhouse gases promotes warming “Greenhouse Gases” are wavelength- selective absorbers Without selective absorbers Earth is 5 F With selective absorbers Earth is 64 F

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 3 List of Nominations The Real Issues in the Debate How much will it warm – in response to humans adding more greenhouse gases? How fast will it warm? How significant will be the impact? The first two questions will likely remain uncertain for decades. So, for decision-makers the last question is key. It is not just a science question. It depends on what you value and your sense of risk.

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 4 List of Nominations Explain that – my debate with an economist Suppose I got contract to cut down all of the trees for lumber around your city. Good or bad?

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 5 List of Nominations Explain that – my debate with an economist Suppose I got contract to cut down all of the trees for lumber around your city. Good or bad? GOOD – a product - brings in dollars; jobs - brings in dollars

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 6 List of Nominations Explain that – my debate with an economist Suppose I got contract to cut down all of the trees for lumber around your city. Good or bad? GOOD – a product, brings in dollars; jobs, brings in dollars WAIT – what about beauty, habitat, ecosystem services (water)?

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 7 List of Nominations Explain that – my debate with an economist Suppose I got contract to cut down all of the trees for lumber around your city. Good or bad? GOOD – a product, brings in dollars; jobs, brings in dollars WAIT – what about beauty,habitat, ecosystem services (clean water)? In one generation they won’t know what they have missed – no value

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 8 List of Nominations The Changing Debate What do scientists really know about global warming? What are the predictions for the future? What are the potential impacts and vulnerabilities?

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 9 List of Nominations What do Climate Experts Really Know about Global Warming? And, step back 15 years ago to examine the predictions

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 10 List of Nominations Foundations (1995) Carbon Dioxide is a Selective Absorber Greenhouse Gases are Increasing (oil, coal, deforestation) Increased Greenhouse Gases Promote Warming Draw down will take Centuries Aerosols have Human Sources Many Aerosols Promote Cooling The Planet has warmed 1° F in Century

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 11 List of Nominations Global Temperatures

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 12 List of Nominations Cooling? Finally?

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 13 List of Nominations Temperature Trends

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 14 List of Nominations 1995: Confidence in Predictions

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 15 List of Nominations Predictions: Virtually Certain 1995: The Stratosphere will cool Stratospheric tropical temperature trends (observations in blue) From Bill Randel

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 16 List of Nominations Predictions: Very Probable 1995: Surface Temperature will Increase in response to increased levels of greenhouse gases –--.5 to 2.0 C by 2050 – to 4.5 C for end of century – C most likely

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 17 List of Nominations Predictions to 2100 (IPCC)

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 18 List of Nominations Predictions: Very Probable 1995: Global Precipitation Will Increase

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 19 List of Nominations Spatial Changes in Precipitation

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 20 List of Nominations Column Water Vapor

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 21 List of Nominations Predictions: Very Probable 1995: Sea Ice will Retreat in N.H. Compared to mean; Richter-Menge et al.

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 22 List of Nominations Rate of Decline Greater than Predictions Boe et al.

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 23 List of Nominations Predictions: Very Probable 1995: N.H. High Latitude Warming IPCC

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 24 List of Nominations Snow Cover (IPCC)

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 25 List of Nominations Predictions Very Probable 1995: Sea Level will Rise –5-40 cm by 2050

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 26 List of Nominations Sea Level (IPCC) Tide Gauges Based on A1B

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 27 List of Nominations Predictions Very Probable 1995: Solar Variability will Not be Significant Over the Next 50 years Compared to CO2 Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. 2009

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 28 List of Nominations Predictions - Uncertain Climate Variability Changes Regional Climate Changes Tropical Storms The Next 25 Years Biosphere Feedbacks

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 29 List of Nominations OBSERVATIONS ENSO CHARACTERISTICS 1 o CCSM4

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 30 List of Nominations Hurricane simulated in NCAR Nested Regional Model

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 31 List of Nominations What do Climate Models Predict? U.S. Centric – only to force us to think about impacts and risk

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 32 List of Nominations Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Advancing Earth-system science

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 33 List of Nominations

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 34 List of Nominations Regional Comparisons (IPCC)

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 35 List of Nominations Temperatures Compared to Prediction

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 36 List of Nominations US Temperature Predictions 1995

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 37 List of Nominations Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 38 List of Nominations

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 39 List of Nominations Global Climate Change Impacts In the United States, 2009

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 40 List of Nominations What are the Potential Impacts for Ecosystems, Water, Agriculture and Health? Many interesting areas: Consider only Ecosystems

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 41 List of Nominations

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 42 List of Nominations

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 43 List of Nominations Global Climate Change Impacts in The United States, 2009

Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level 44 List of Nominations The Changing Debate What do scientists really know about global warming? What are the predictions for the future? What are the potential impacts and vulnerabilities?