Trend analysis for HMs and POPs Applications I. Ilyin, EMEP / MSC-East

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 List of trend parameters Parameters for trend characterization:  Relative reduction over the whole period (R tot ),  Relative annual reductions of contamination:  average over the period (R av ),  maximum (R max ),  minimum (R min ).  Relative contribution of seasonal variability (F seas ).  Relative contribution of random component (F rand ).  Phase shift of maximum values of contamination with respect to the beginning of the year (φ). Statistical tests:  Non-linearity parameter (NL)10%  Relative contribution of seasonal variability (F seas )10%

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for the report  Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations Seasonality Random component Shift relative to beginning of year  Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates Overall reduction  Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources.)  Changes of transboundary transport  Pollution levels caused by emission source categories  Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation)  Large Point Sources (LPS)  Deposition to ecosystems

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014  Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations Seasonality Random component Shift relative to beginning of year  Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates Overall reduction  Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources. )  Changes of transboundary transport  Pollution levels caused by emission source categories  Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation)  Large Point Sources (LPS)  Deposition to ecosystems Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for the report

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Application of the analysis of trends to individual stations Hg and B[a]P - in air - wet deposition - collocated Pb, Cd Selection of stations: data available from to (Pb, Cd) from 1996 to (Hg, B[a]P) Pb, Cd: 15 stations Hg: 6 stations B[a]P: 6 stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Observed air concentrations of Pb for station DE1 (Germany) Non-linearity of observed and modelled trends at monitoring stations Analysis of modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Observed air concentrations of Pb their trend for station DE1 (Germany) Non-linearity of observed and modelled trends at monitoring stations NL = 45% Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Modelled air concentrations of Pb their trend for station DE1 (Germany) NL = 43% Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations Non-linearity of observed and modelled trends at monitoring stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Average among stations Max among stations Min among stations Non-linearity of observed and modelled trends at monitoring stations Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Non-linearity: summary for HMs and POPs Air concentrationsWet deposition Threshold value: 10% Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Non-linearity: summary for HMs and POPs Air concentrationsWet deposition Threshold value: 10%  As a rule, trends of observed and modelled levels at stations are non-linear Linear trend at all stations Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations Non-linear trend at all stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Observed air concentrations and their trend, including seasonality for station DE1 (Germany) Analysis of long-term trends at monitoring stations: seasonality C seas = 50% Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Air concentrationsWet deposition Seasonality: summary for HMs and POPs Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Air concentrationsWet deposition Seasonality: summary for HMs and POPs Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Air concentrationsWet deposition Seasonality: summary for HMs and POPs Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Observed air concentrations and their trend, including seasonality for station DE1 (Germany) Analysis of long-term trends at monitoring stations: random component C rand = 66% Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Random component: summary for HMs and POPs Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Analysis of long-term trends at monitoring stations: phase shift Observed wet deposition and their trend, including seasonality for station NO39 (Norway) Δφ = ~6 months Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Month of maximum air concentrations of Pb trend in Phase shifts: summary for all stations (Pb, air concentrations) Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations Number of month with maximum

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Δφ model = 6 months Trends of modelled and observed concentrations of Pb at DE3 (Germany)  DE3 is located at height 1200 m (but in the model at 550 m)  This station may characterize conditions mostly in free troposphere rather then in boundary layer Possible explanation of difference in modelled and observed phase shifts (to be examined) Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations Δφ model ~ 1 month

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Concluding remarks  As a rule, trends of observed and modelled levels at stations are non-linear. Exception is concentrations of Hg in air  Trends of observed and modelled levels at stations exhibit substantial seasonal variability (except of Hg in air). The most pronounced seasonality is noted for B[a]P  Random component characterizes non-regular short-term seasonal meteorological variability

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for the report  Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations Seasonality Random component Shift relative to beginning of year  Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates Overall reduction  Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources. )  Changes of transboundary transport  Pollution levels caused by emission source categories  Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation)  Large Point Sources (LPS)  Deposition to ecosystems

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014  Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations Seasonality Random component Shift relative to beginning of year  Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates Overall reduction  Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources. )  Changes of transboundary transport  Pollution levels caused by emission source categories  Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation)  Large Point Sources (LPS)  Deposition to ecosystems Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for the report

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014  Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations Seasonality Random component Shift relative to beginning of year  Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates Overall reduction  Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources. )  Changes of transboundary transport  Pollution levels caused by emission source categories  Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation)  Large Point Sources (LPS)  Deposition to ecosystems Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for the report

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Analysis of pollution trends in the EMEP region

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Analysis of pollution trends in the EMEP region

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Analysis of pollution trends in the EMEP region Reduction = 3.4% per yearReduction = 6 (5 – 7)% per year Reduction = 1.2 (-3.2 – 3.9)% per year Reduction = 2.2 (1.1 – 3.1)% per year

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Mean reduction rate of pollution levels in the EMEP countries for Rates of total deposition reduction of lead in the EMEP countries Average rate for period Maximum (beginning of the period) Minimum (end of the period) Trends in the EMEP region

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Rates of total deposition reduction of lead in the EMEP countries Trends in the EMEP region

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Trends in the EMEP region Rates of total deposition reduction of lead in the EMEP countries

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 B[a]P Trends in the EMEP region Rates of total deposition reduction of B[a]P in the EMEP countries

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 B[a]P Rates of total deposition reduction of B[a]P in the EMEP countries Trends in the EMEP region

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Mean among countries Maximum among countries Minimum among countries 95 percentile 5 percentile Average among countries 25 percentile 75 percentile Average reduction rate and overall reduction in the EMEP countries for Mean annual reduction rates in countries

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Average reduction rate and overall reduction in the EMEP countries for Mean annual reduction rates in countries Overall reduction in countries for

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Factors affecting long-term trends Meteorological variability Secondary emission sources Anthropogenic emissions Main factors affecting trends: Transboundary transport Changes in atmospheric composition Non-EMEP sources (boundary conditions)

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Factors affecting long-term trends Dimensionless emission of Pb in Europe

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Factors affecting long-term trends Dimensionless emission and deposition of Pb in Europe Deposition reduction is smaller Deposition trend is less smooth Compared to the emission trend: Main factors affecting deposition trends: Anthropogenic emissions Meteorological variability Secondary emission sources

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Model calculations for to determine influence of factors affecting trends Anthrop. emission Meteo Secondary sources Effect of anthrop. emission Effect of meteorology Effect of secondary emission Varies Fixed “Fixed” – relates to 1990 Factors affecting long-term trends

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Relative deposition changes caused by different factors Overall reduction of Pb deposition ~74% Factors affecting long-term trends

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Overall reduction of Pb deposition ~74% Major factor of Pb long-term changes is anthropogenic emission Relative deposition changes caused by different factors Factors affecting long-term trends

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Overall reduction of Pb deposition ~74% Major factor of Pb long-term changes is anthropogenic emission Meteorological variability responsible for ±10% of deposition in Europe as a whole Relative deposition changes caused by different factors Factors affecting long-term trends

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Overall reduction of Pb deposition ~74% Major factor of Pb long-term changes is anthropogenic emission Meteorological variability responsible for ±10% of deposition in Europe as a whole Effect of secondary sources is explained by long-term decline of concentrations in soils In countries of Europe the effect of these factors may be different Relative deposition changes caused by different factors Factors affecting long-term trends

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Effect of transboundary transport on long-term changes of pollution levels Reduction of Pb deposition 1990 and 2010 in the EMEP region

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Reduction of Pb deposition caused by changes of national, foreign and sum of secondary and non-EMEP sources between 1990 and 2010 in countries of the EMEP region Deposition of Pb Effect of transboundary transport on long-term changes of pollution levels Factors affecting long-term trends

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Reduction of Pb deposition caused by changes of national, foreign and sum of secondary and non-EMEP sources between 1990 and 2010 in countries of the EMEP region Deposition of Pb Effect of transboundary transport on long-term changes of pollution levels Factors affecting long-term trends

TFMM trend analysis workshop, November 2014 Changes in key source categories Contribution of source categories to HM deposition in EMEP countries MercuryLead 18