Population Dynamics Population is always changing. You can study the effects of both natural change from birth and deaths, and migration. This change has important implications so countries try to manage both population and migration through government policies.

You need to know: 1.1 How and why population is changing in different parts of the world? 1.2 How far can population change and migration be managed sustainably?

Key terms: Key term Definition Ageing Population This is when a country has a large number of people over the age of 65 in their country. Anti – natalist policy A government policy used to encourage people to have fewer children. Birth rate The number of births per 1,000 people in a year. Death rate The number of deaths per 1,000 people in a year. Development Economic and social progress that leads to improvements in the quality of life for an increasing proportion of the population. Economic migrant Someone who has emigrated from one region to another region looking for employment or improved standard of living. Emigrant A person leaving a country or region to live somewhere else (for at least one year). Exponential Growth When the population starts doubling itself very quickly - the bigger the population the faster it grows

Key term Definition Fertility rate The average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime. Immigrant A person arriving in a country or region to live (for at least one year). Infant mortality rate The number of babies who die per 1, 000 before the child's first birthday. Life expectancy The average number of years a person might be expected to live. Migration The movement by people from one place to another Natural change The change (an increase or a decrease) in population numbers resulting from the difference between birth and death rates. Natural increase Is the number of people added to or lost from the population of every 1000 people in one year. Overpopulation An area that has too many people for the resources available.

Key term Definition Population pyramid A diagrammatic way of showing the age and sex structure of a population. Population structure The 'make up' or composition of a population Pro -natalist policy A government policy used to encourage people to have more children. Tipping point The point at which the momentum of a change is unstoppable. Under population When there are too few people to develop fully the economic potential of an area or nation. Youthful population This is when there are a very high percentage of people under the age of 15. Zero population growth (also called the replacement level, is where the population neither grows or declines, and remains stable.

Key idea 1: What has happened to the global population – historical, current and future trends?   The world population is growing at an alarming rate in 2013 at least another 65 million people were added to the global total of 7.1 billion. Exponential Growth has been occurring (In 2000 the doubling time fell to 39 years) Watch this YouTube video on population growth and future projections. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTznEIZRkLg&feature=related&safe=active However since 2000 the rate of growth has become more uncertain in fact no country in the EU is producing enough babies to stop their population declining.

Key idea 2: Why does natural increase vary around the world? Could be due to a decline in death rates and infant mortality rates: Development of modern medicines and Introduction of vaccination and immunisation programmes e.g. smallpox vaccination that helps people to live longer. Cleaner drinking water and better sewage disposal, a lot more people have access to clean drinking water than before. Better healthcare – more doctors, nurses and hospitals, means that people can be treated and not die. Better diets, e.g. promoting eating ‘5 a day Changing social conditions – attitudes to marriage etc. Technology might facilitate population growth - improved fertility treatment However death rates might also be unpredictable because: Catastrophes might occur such as natural disasters Resources might run out causing famine/wars etc Pandemics might occur - HIV/AIDS

Key Idea 3. How and why does the population of a country change Key Idea 3. How and why does the population of a country change? - The Demographic Transition Model Stage 1: High fluctuating – E.g. a few remote tribes - High birth rate due to no birth control and high infant mortality - High death rate due to disease and famine Stage 2: Early expanding – E.g. Niger, Bangladesh - High birth rate - Falling death rates due to improved health care and nutrition Stage 3: Late expanding – E.g. India, Brazil & Mexico - Falling birth rates due to birth control and wanting smaller families - Falling death rates Stage 4: Low fluctuating E.g. USA, France - Low birth and death rates due to working women delaying age to start their families Stage 5: Decline E.g. Japan & Russia - Death rate higher than birth rate due to a ‘grey’ population

As with any theory or model, The DTM isn’t without its critics though! Not all countries have followed the same path of development or growth. Some countries develop at faster speeds than others. It is a generalisation. Migration isn’t taken into account. And to help you remember here is the DTM song: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzxREH08EkI

Key Idea 4: Why are their variations in population structure around the world? (Population Pyramids) Population pyramids show important features of a population – age and gender. This diagram below shows how to read one.

Population pyramids can be seen to link to the Demographic Transition Model – this is what they look like at different stages of the DTM.

MEDC like Russia LEDC like Yemen The birth rate in an MEDC is DECLINING The birth rate is higher in a LESS DEVELOPED country. The death rate is lower in an MORE DEVELOPED country. Females generally live LONGER than males in both countries.

Named study 1: Comparing the growth rates of Russia & Yemen (MEDC) YEMEN (LEDC) Current Population 142 million 24.7 million GNI Per Person Upper middle income country ($10,400) Lower middle income country ($ 1,070) Birth Rate 12.3 32.6 Death Rate 14.1 6.8 Natural Increase -0.2 2.6 Predicted Population in 2057 Fall to 104 million Rise to 105 million Reasons for… Population decline... Falling life expectancy caused by industrial disease and alcoholism Outward migration of young men and women A low fertility rate of 1.2 Population growth.... Early age of marriage (48% of women are married before the age of 18) Low literacy rates among women A high fertility rate of 6.7 children due to improved life expectancy and child vaccines

Key Idea 5: What are the issues relating to a youthful or ageing population? Youthful population - This is when there are a very high percentage of people under the age of 15. Problems: Pressure on housing – not enough housing, people living in slums. This is very common around the big cities (New Delhi), where millions of people live in shanty towns with no running water, roads, sewage of any kind. Pressure on schooling – illiterate population. India’s literacy rate is 60%, Cambodia’s literacy rate is 69% Pressure on food supplies - famine, food distribution difficulties. Natural disasters accentuate this problem e.g. droughts. Pressure on health services – a growth in diseases being spread around and not being dealt with adequately to stop the spread. High unemployment - Large numbers of people unable to find work so they emigrate Ageing population This is when a country has a large number of people over the age of 65 in their country. Health care Skilled health care workers, e.g. nurses, doctors, etc. Pensions - Increase in pension costs. More retired people means fewer workers in the economy 3 solutions Increase tax – not popular Raise retirement age – not popular Abolish state pensions – not popular Watch this clip on why the UK’s population is ageing http://www.bbc.co.uk/learningzone/clips/why-is-the-uks-population-ageing/537.html

Named study 2: Countries with contrasting population structures Japan vs. Mexico Youthful population: Mexico (LEDC) Facts Causes Effects - 31% of population under 15 - Population grew 50 million in 40 years - Average age in 26 - Low death rate at 4.78 deaths per 1000. due to vaccinations and doctors - falling birth rate but large % of young people - Will take 50 years for to loose it’s youthful population - Increase need for school places - Young people unable to find work so emigrate to - Growing manufacturing industry - Strongly catholic but abortion has been legalised to reduce number of children Ageing Population – Japan (MEDC) Facts Causes Effects - 20.8% of population aged +65 - 26.8 million pensioners - Birth rate below replacement level - People living longer (79 for men & 85 for women). Due to healthy diet and high GDP - Birth rate declining due to increase age of first child (2006 29.2 years) and number of marriages has decreased - Increase cost of pensions as fewer workers - Government raised retirement age from 60 to 65 - Increase in numbers in nursing homes - Increase cost of medical care

Key Idea 6: Why do some countries wish to control their population? Named study 3: Pro - Natalist Policy – Singapore (More, More, More) What? Why? Effects Marriage and Parenthood package - Launched in 2008 Helps people to find life partners Provides housing schemes to help couples set up a home Offers baby bonus schemes Offers maternity leave 16 weeks Provides paid child care leave for working parents. Offers state subsidised child care. - Concerns about an ageing population more pressure on working population. - Concerns that there are not enough people of working age - Not enough money collected in tax to pay for public services - Small population - only 5million means more pressure on military and other services Increased fertility rate Watch these clips to help you understand their policy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qz8PTkjJuqo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mltkqqaGFUE

Named study 4: Anti - natalist Policy – China (one child policy) What? Why? Effects Introduced in 1970s – couples not allowed to have more than one child. Couples with one child were given benefits e.g. cash bonuses, better childcare and improved housing. Unauthorised pregnancies pressured to have abortions Men have to be over 22 and women over 20 in order to be granted permission to have a child State officials with more than one child lose their job and other rule breakers receive a heavy fine Families in rural areas are allowed 2 children -High growth rate of population - Pressure on land and food supplies due to large population -Birth rate fell from 34 per 1000 in 1970 to 13 per 1000 in 2008 - Annual population growth rate fell from 2.4% to 0.6% -Total population grown from 996 million in 1980 to 1,320 million today -Chinese tradition to prefer sons so sex selective abortions occurred (120 males to 100 females) Shortage of women at marrying age - China faces population in balance crisis High % of unwanted babat girls abandoned or left in orphanages Concerns that now China will not have enough workers for its rapidly growing economy Concerns that there will not be babies people of working age to support china’s ageing population (4 grandparents, 2 parents and 1 child) Watch these clips to help you understand their policy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0cQIlHlKxM http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-19677676

Key idea 7: Why do People Migrate? There are many different reasons why people migrate. These factors can be spilt into two categories: PUSH FACTORS and PULL FACTORS. Push Factors: Factors which cause someone to leave an area, i.e. they PUSH people out. Also known as forced migration. Pull Factors: Factors which attract someone to an area, i.e. they PULL people in. Also known as voluntary migration.

Named Example 5: Migration policies in the UK Source advantages (the country they have come from) UK advantages Immigrants send money to their home countries (remittance) Immigrants take skills back to their home country when they leave the UK. Less pressure on jobs in countries like Bangladesh and Poland Migrants are often young, helping to solve the problem of an ageing population in the UK Immigrants can often take low paid jobs which people in the UK are unwilling to do Increases cultural diversity in the UK Addresses the problem of skilled and unskilled labour shortages Less then 5% of immigrants claim any sort of state benefits Immigrants contribute to the economy by paying taxes Source disadvantages UK disadvantages Decline in birth rate as most migrants are young men Loss of working population Some immigrants can remain isolated and not integrate with the wider community. Can lead to hostility and stereotyping Local people can find it difficult to find jobs in the crowded labour market Public money needs to be spent on extra housing and healthcare to cope with the increase in population

Which policy is best for the UK? Open-door policy : Post War immigrants came to UK from colonies in the Caribbean due to an Act of Parliament giving all Commonwealth (ex-colonial) citizens free entry into the UK. (1950-1960s ¼ million people came from the Caribbean). Another example of an open door policy is membership of the EU which allows all members of the EU to move freely between each country this was particularly evident when in 2004 eastern European countries of Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined the EU (A8 – Accession countries). This meant that citizens of these countries are free to move and work in other EU member countries. In most cases these economic migrants stay only until they feel they have made enough money to take home https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_fv3HpSFww Advantages:   Meets shortage of unskilled and semi-skilled labour Helped with the reconstruction of the country post war Fill jobs that British citizen are reluctant to do. Can provide economic boost – It is estimated that Polish people have contributed more than three times as much to the UK economy than they have cost.   Disadvantages Public money spent on meeting needs of the immigrants e.g. housing etc Recession – immigrants can lead to increased unemployment Wages are forced down because migrants are willing to work for less Can lead to ethnic tensions

Points-based system – A skills tested policy is when tests are used to assess the qualifications and skills that potential immigrants have to see if they match the jobs and skills that are needed in a country. The UK points based system was established in 2008 and contains 5 tiers of migrants. Tier one has highly skilled workers such as scientists, down to Tier five who are temporary workers e.g. musicians playing in a concert. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wfPNp6bIRw – watch this advert to help you understand the different tiers. Immigration quotas - In the UK, there are quotas in place, working alongside the Points-based system. For example, only 20,700 people from tier 2 are allowed access to migrate to the UK each year (from outside the EU). http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/policy-primers/migrants-london-policy-challenges One of the most extreme examples was the US Immigration Act of 1924, where they limited the number of migrants from each country to 2% of the total number from that country who were already living in the USA. For example, if there were 1 million Indian people living in the USA in 1925, the maximum number of Indian people who could migrate to the USA in that year would be 20,000. - Advantages: Migrants contribute to the UK economy by paying tax. Many jobs they do are low paid. These are jobs often avoided by UK workers. Strong work-ethic. Efficient and polite. Less than 5% receive any state benefit. Stops too many people migrating into the UK. Can be changed according to what the country needs Disadvantages: restricts well qualified people from coming into the country. Restrict movement of people fleeing persecution.

Key Idea 8: Tensions that arise as a result of migration The UK immigration of ethnic groups lead to conflict as there was hostility towards them. These ethnic groups banded together into particular areas to reduce the risk of being victimised. The UK government stepped in and stated that all citizens regardless of ethnicity should enjoy equal opportunities. Today much more harmonious as people have begun to realise the positives of having them; they add to country’s skill base and culture.

Population Dynamics – past questions   Explain why the future growth rate of the world’s population is hard to predict. (4) Suggest TWO reasons why some developing countries have high birth rates. (2) Describe what is meant by an ‘ageing population’. (2) Suggest two reasons why some countries have large numbers of elderly people. (2) Explain why people in many developed countries are living a lot longer now. (2) Give two reasons why a country may have an ageing population. (2) Describe two economic impacts of an ageing population. (2) Outline either one social or one economic issue resulting from an ageing population. (2) Explain TWO problems faced by countries with ageing populations. (4) Many countries have youthful populations. Describe what is meant be a ‘youthful population’ (2) New Outline two problems faced by countries with youthful populations (4) New Suggest two reasons why many countries have experienced a fall in birth rate. (2) Suggest two reasons why some European countries have falling populations. (2) Name a country that has an anti-natal policy. (1) Describe one policy used to control population size in a country. (2) Describe the methods governments can use to control population size. (4) Using examples, describe how a government might try to encourage fewer births (an anti-natalist policy). (4) Explain why some governments may wish to control their population size. (2) Explain why governments may wish to control the number of migrants entering their country. (2) Explain why some countries decide to reduce levels of immigration (4) New Using named examples, explain why some countries choose to increase immigration but others choose to reduce it (4) New Using named examples explain why predicting the future population size of countries is difficult (6) New

Population Dynamics Good Luck