©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com.

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Presentation transcript:

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. |

US Lodging Real Estate Cycle Early Operating Recovery Early Transaction Recovery Main Street Debt Availability Full Operating Recovery Conversions/Renovations New Project Announcements Early Wall St. Activity Peak Transaction Activity Peak New Hotel Openings Peak Earnings Full Wall St. Participation Cycle Peak Lending Development Earnings Transactions X

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | Rooms (000s) Projs 2,7533, ,1222,7573,311 Under Construction Starts in Next 12 Mos Early Planning Forecast Prior Peak 2Q08: 785K Rooms, 5,883 Projects US Construction Pipeline by Projects and Rooms 455

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | At 2Q Projs 126,380 Rms US Under Construction Trends by Projects: Quarter over Quarter

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | US Construction Start Trends by Projects: Quarter over Quarter At 2Q Projs 32,515 Rms

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | At 2Q Projs 49,490 Rms US New Project Announcement Trends by Projects: Quarter over Quarter

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | At 2Q Projs 159,574 Rms US Announced Conversion & Renovation Trends by Projects: Quarter over Quarter

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | US Construction Pipeline by Project Stage: Quarter over Quarter Q4 131Q 142Q 14 Proj Rms Proj Rms Proj Rms Under Construction , , ,380 Starts Next 12 Month 1,156141,1401,327161,7481,354161,204 Early Planning 1,071140,0831,014131, ,803 Total Pipeline 3,020382,9583,226407,2353,311421,387

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | ProjsRooms 3110, , ,543 1,205116, , , , ,917 Total 3,311421,387 US Construction Pipeline by Chain Scale: with an Unbranded Breakout

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | ProjsRooms 8420, ,237 1,048146,732 1,386146, , , ,349 Included Total 3,311421,387 US Construction Pipeline by Chain Scale: with Unbranded Included

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | * = Pipeline of rooms as a percentage of current Census Projs Rms * New York17730, Houston11513, Washington DC 8113, Los Angeles 5811, Miami 5811, US Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 10 Markets US Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 10 Markets

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | US Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 10 Markets US Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 10 Markets * = Pipeline of rooms as a percentage of current Census Projs Rms * Chicago 439, Austin 528, San Diego 348, Boston 497, Seattle 397,

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | Rooms 97,540 44,584 84,844 70,249 53,076 LE’s US Forecast for New Hotel Openings *1.9% *1.7% *1.3 – 1.4% *1.1% *0.9%

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | Forecast for New Hotel Openings: by Chain Scale as of 2Q13 * = growth rate (Includes Independents) Projs Rms * Projs Rms * Projs Rms * Luxury 14 3, , , Upper Upscale 26 5, , , Upscale 20125, , , Upper Midscale 26224, , , Midscale 82 5, , , Economy 33 2, , , Casino 122, , , LE’s US Forecast for New Hotel Openings: By Chain Scale LE’s US Forecast for New Hotel Openings: By Chain Scale

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | Under Construction PlanningTotal Pipeline Proj Rms Proj Rms Proj Rms United States ,3802,341295,0073, ,387 Other Americas , , ,426 EMEA , ,4101, ,236 Asia Pac 2,791567, ,7983, ,207 Global 4,905914,2994,366666,9579,2711,581,256 Global Construction Pipeline Total: By Region Global Construction Pipeline Total: By Region

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | Projs Rms United Kingdom ,665 Russia ,497 Germany 98 18,343 Turkey 67 11,617 Spain 37 5,318 Europe Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 5 Countries Europe Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 5 Countries

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | Projs Rms China2,409521,452 India ,815 Indonesia ,495 Japan ,172 Malaysia 67 17,219 Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 5 Countries Asia Pacific Construction Pipeline Total by Rooms: Top 5 Countries

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | Q YTD >200 Rooms <200 Rooms Total Trans K 197K 72K 107K 152K 77K Average Selling Price Per Room (000s) US Transactions with a Reported Selling Price 211K 76K

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | US Lodging Real Estate Total Investment by Dollars 1 As SellersAs Buyers $ Millions Q YTD Q YTD Privately Held Companies Equity Funds2,9085,2732,2542,8764,4971,770 Hotel Companies2,2575,2532,2352,1802,9291,332 Individual Owners1,9621, ,0101, Publicly Traded Companies REITs9682, ,4225,0242,722 Hotel Companies1,0601, , Other Entities7311, , Total Dollar Volume9,88617,1827,5199,88617,1827,519 1 For Transactions with a reported Selling Price

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | US Transactions By Chain Scale 1 by Number of Hotels Sold Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy 1 Includes Like Kind Independents

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | Forecast The overall US Market will continue to remain robust in several areas including Transactions. The Construction Pipeline will continue to grow but it will be dominated by projects with less than 200 rooms in the Upscale and Upper Midscale Chain Scales. Highest rate markets and gateway cities will continue to draw eager developers looking for land or adaptive reuse projects. Availability of debt will continue to improve. Profits will continue to rise as we have a good four-year run in front of us.

©2014 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. |