Integrated Assessment and Modelling: Introduction to training exercises RICHARD WARRICK International Global Change Institute (IGCI) University of Waikato New Zealand

This presentation will: Provide an overview of integrated assessment and modelling Describe the SimCLIM system for national and sub-national assessments Introduce the hands-on training session

Part 1: Integrated Assessment and Models

What is meant by “assessment”? Integrated Assessment Models - Part I: Integrated Assessment Models -

Assessment Process - Climate impacts and adaptation - Assessment Process Products, e.g. National Communications Project development time Technical analyses and studies PAST FUTURE Assessments What do we know? What don’t we know? What needs to be done? Priority gaps and needs?

What is meant by “integrated” assessment? Integrated Assessment Models - Part I: Integrated Assessment Models -

Global - what is meant by integrated assessment? - Regional Local sectoral agriculture wetter drier Vertically integrated Global Warming

Global - what is meant by integrated assessment? - Regional Local sectoral agriculture wetter drier Vertically integrated Global Warming

Global - what is meant by integrated assessment? - Regional Local sectoral agriculture watercoastal health Horizontally integrated Drought Risk Coastal Risk Flood Risk Epidemic Risk

Global Warming Global - what is meant by integrated assessment? - Regional Local sectoral agriculture watercoastal health Fully integrated Drought Risk Coastal Risk Flood Risk Epidemic Risk wetter drier

What is meant by integrated assessment “model”? Integrated Assessment Models - Part I: Integrated Assessment Models -

Atmospheric Chemistry Ocean Carbon Cycle Atmospheric Composition Climate Ocean Temperature Sea level Climate & Sea Level Agriculture, Livestock & Forestry Energy System Other Human Systems Coastal System Human Systems Crops & Forests Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Unmanaged Ecosystems Hydrology Ecosystems Key components of full-scale IAMs (Weyant et al., IPCC, 1996)

EXAMPLE: Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) (NIES, Japan)

Study Area of AIM (NIES, Japan)

End-to-end characterisation of IAMs (Weyant et al., IPCC 1996) Atmospheric Chemistry Ocean carbon Cycle Atmospheric Composition Hydrology Health & other Coastal System Crops & Forestry Impacts Agriculture Other Emissions Energy System Emissions Climate Ocean Temperature Sea level Climate & Sea Level

EXAMPLE: MAGICC/SCENGEN MAGICC Greenhouse gas emissions Global mean temperature change SCENGEN GCM patterns Climatologies Regional Scenarios of Climate Change

Part 2: The SimCLIM models for national and sub-national assessments

The SimCLIM Models The SimCLIM Models (the “first generation” structure)

SimCLIM Models VANDACLIM (island version) BDCLIM (Bangladesh)VANDACLIM (fictitious country)PACCLIM (Pacific Island region)OZCLIM (Australia) CLIMPACTS ( New Zealand) CHAMP (New Zealand) FijiClim (Viti Levu) CANCLIM (Canada)HOTSPOTS (NZ) TOPOCLIM (NZ)

For Example: FIJICLIM Mean Annual Precipitation 2070 Climate:

Example: FijiCLIM, Dalo Suitability El Nino DroughtClimate Change 2050 with El Nino Drought Current Average Climate GREEN = highly suitable soils and climate BROWN = least suitable Impacts:

SimCLIMs can be used to: Describe baseline climatesDescribe baseline climates Examine current climate variability and extremesExamine current climate variability and extremes Assess risks – present and futureAssess risks – present and future Investigate adaptation – present and futureInvestigate adaptation – present and future Create climate change scenariosCreate climate change scenarios Conduct sensitivity analysesConduct sensitivity analyses Project sectoral impacts of climate and sea level changeProject sectoral impacts of climate and sea level change Examine risks and uncertaintiesExamine risks and uncertainties Facilitate integrated impact analysesFacilitate integrated impact analyses

A customised, prototype SimCLIM model can be developed for AIACC projects Data Required: Spatially interpolated monthly climatologies Time-series climate data for stations (monthly or daily) Downscaled, standardised patterns of monthly temperature and precipitation changes from GCMs. Digital elevation model (optional)

Part 3: The “hands-on” training exercise

Objective To gain practical experience in: selected elements of integrated assessment using an Integrated Assessment Model - Hands-on Training Exercise -

The “Republic of Vanda Islands” (an imaginary country) - Hands-on Training Exercise -

Using: The Island Version Developed by the International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, New Zealand - Hands-on Training Exercise -

Problem Focus: Risk Reduction Assess current climatic risks Assess adequacy of current adaptation to climatic variability and extremes Develop scenarios of future climate changes Assess possible future changes in risk Assess adaptation options for reducing future risks Estimate incremental cost ratios - Hands-on Training Exercise -

Choice of 4 Training Groups Coastal Flood Risk (storm surges) Agricultural Drought Risk Risks of Groundwater shortage Drought risk to water supply - Hands-on Training Exercise -

Sessions All four training groups in each session No more than four persons per group Each session repeated four times - Hands-on Training Exercise -

The End… Thank you for your attention