Value at Risk (VaR) Chapter IX.

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Presentation transcript:

Value at Risk (VaR) Chapter IX

Definition of VaR VaR is an attempt to provide a single number that summarizes the total portfolio risk. When using VaR, we are interested in making a statement of the following form: “We are X percent certain that we will not lose more than V dollars at time T.”

Definition of VaR The variable V is the VaR of the portfolio. It is a function of two parameters: the time horizon, T, and the confidence level, X percent. It is the loss level during a time period of length T that we are X% certain will not be exceeded. VaR can be calculated from either the probability of gains or losses during time T.

Definition of VaR When the distribution of gains is used, VaR is equal to minus the gain at the (100 – X)th percentile of the distribution. When the distribution of losses is used, VaR is equal to the loss at the Xth percentile of the distribution.

Calculation of VaR Suppose the gain from a portfolio during six months is normally distributed with a mean of $2 million and a standard deviation of $10 million. From the properties of normal distribution, the one-percentile point of this distribution is 2 - 2.33*10, or -$21.3 million. The VaR of the portfolio with horizon of six months and confidence level of 99% is therefore $21.3 million.

Calculation of VaR Suppose that for one year project all outcomes between a loss of $50 million and a gain of $50 million are considered equally likely. In this case the loss from the project has a uniform distribution extending from -$50 million to +$50 million. There is a 1% chance there will be a loss greater than $49 million. The VaR with one year time horizon and a 99% confidence level is therefore $49 million.