Erik Pedersen, Independent Consultant HFC Management Workshop, UNEP, Paris, July 11-12, 2014

Sector HFC consumption Existing uses of HFCs Mobile Air Conditioners New vehicles with MAC Systems 46 million new cars by A5 countries 33,000 MT to 37,000 MT of HFC-134a Servicing of vehicles with MAC system ~300 million cars in A5 countries 25,000 MT to 30,000 MT of HFC-134a Domestic refrigerators New refrigerators with HFC-134a ~ 40 million new 134a DRs by A5 6,000 MT to 7,000 MT of HFC-134a Servicing existing refrigerators HFC/HC ~300 million DRs in A5 countries 4,500 MT to 5,500 MT of HFC-134a HCFCs to be replaced by non-HFCs or via HFC to non-HFC Alternatives Air conditionersNew ACs and servicing95,000 MT of HCFC-22 Converting to HFC-32, HC- 290 and/or HFO blend Commercial refrigeration CR Units and CR system, (compressor manufacturers ) ~45,000 MTConverting to HFC-32, HC- 600a, HC-290, R744 PU Foam sectorFoam production75,000 MT of HCFC-141b ~ 10%-20% might convert to HFCs => to Non-HFC

SectorAlternativesICC CE US$/kg of HFCs ICC CE US$/CO2 equ MAC, Vehicles manufactures HFO-1234yfUS$ 6.35/kg HFC- 134a US$ 4.44/tCO2-e MAC component manufacturer HFO-1234yfNa MAC, ServicingHFO-1234yfUS$ 6.5/kgUS$4.55/tCO2-e Domestic refrigeratorsR-600a,US$10.4/kg HFC- 134a US$ 7.29/tCO2-e DR ServicingHFC-123a/R-600aUS$6.5/kg HFC- 134a US$ 5/tCO2-e ACHFC-32, HFO blends and R290 US$ 5/kg HCFC- 22 ($14/kg for R290) US$ 2.60/tCO2-e ($7.78/kg for R290) CR plug-in units (Refrigeration part) HFC-32, HC-290, HC-600a and HFOs US$ 8.0/kg HCFC- 22 US$ 4.44/tCO2-e CR on site installationsHC-290, R744US$ 4.5/kg HCFC- 22 US$ 3.6/tCO2-e PU FoamHC, HFOs, water/CO2 US$17/kg (HC) US$ 5.5/kg (HFO) US$23.45/tCO2-e (HC) US$ 7.59 (HFO)

SectorUse of HFCs and HCFCs ICC CE US$/kg of HFCs ICC Conversion cost MAC, Vehicles manufactures 35,000 MTUS$ 6.35/kg HFCUS$ million MAC component manufacturer N.A. No estimates available MAC, Servicing27,500 MTUS$ 6.5/kg HFC/HFO US$ million Domestic refrigerators6,500 MTUS$10.4/kg HFCUS$ 67.6 million Dom Ref Servicing5,000 MTUS$ 6.5/kg HFC/HCUS$ 32.5million AC95,000 MTUS$ 5/kg HCFC-22US$ 475 million Com Ref, P-I units35,000 MTUS$ 8/kg HCFC-22US$ 280 million Industry-Com Ref On site10,000 MTUS$ 4.5/kg HCFC-22US$ 45,000 PU Foam15,000 MTUS$ 17/kg HCFC- 141b US$ 255 million

A5 Baseline estimated based on latest proposal as around 500 million tons CO2 equivalent

 Non-HFC Technologies are avail, but:  High up-front investment cost for e.g. hydrocarbon based technologies,  Are safety requirements a barrier?,  High cost of low carbon chemicals, Very high HFOs prices are quoted, but will the experiences on the history of cost of e.g. HFC-134a be repeated.  What will drive the phase-out of HFC-134a in the MAC sector in A5 countries?  Cost of servicing of existing chemical and new non-HFC flammable alternatives.  R600 and R290  HFC-32 and HFOs  Are Technology transfer a barrier for going non-HFC?  What are the barriers for going directly to Non-HFC technologies for stage II and III of the HPMPs instead of HFCs:  A choice between high cost of IOC for HFOs or high cost of ICC for hydrocarbon based technologies.  MLF funding policies will play a major role,

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