The NERC Increasing resilience to Natural Hazards Programme John Rees

Integrated Risk Assessment & Scientific Advice Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Hydro-meteorologicalVolcanoesEarthquakes StormsFloods Droughts, Wildfires & Heatwaves Coastal Erosion & Flooding Subsidence LandslidesVolcanoesEarthquakesTsunami Development of physically- based models Experimental Studies Monitoring & survey Experimental Studies Monitoring & survey Experimental Studies Monitoring & survey Experimental Studies Monitoring & survey Experimental Studies Monitoring & survey Experimental Studies Monitoring & survey Experimental Studies Monitoring & survey Experimental Studies Monitoring & survey Natural Hazard Challenges

Theme drivers 1.Natural hazards and their consequences need to be forecast effectively. 2.The communication of scientific knowledge and understanding of natural hazards needs to be much improved. 3.Much more emphasis and financial resources need to be put into mitigation strategies.

. Focus on resilience Christchurch 0 dead Haiti 92, ,000 dead 2010 Magnitude 7.0 earthquakes

Views of ‘Stakeholders’ ICSU UN-ISDR IRDR Wellcome AGU GEM LWEC GSA Hyogo Framework Belmont Forum …. And others Joint NERC & ESRC Programme

Increasing resilience through multi-hazard assessment of earthquake-prone and volcanic regions

Wenchuan earthquake -induced landslides Multi-hazard approach

Drive towards mitigation Three Workpackages 1.Spatial strain distribution analysis to inform earthquake hazards 2.Forecasting the timing of volcanic hazards 3.Multi-hazard risk assessment Tehran Pop. 12,000,000 Istanbul Pop. 12,800,000 And many others….

. WP-1 Increasing spatial and temporal resolution Focus on: Spatial patterns of inter-seismic strain rates Fault interactions Migration of seismic activity Will allow: rapid regional assessments of future risk to support prioritization of disaster mitigation measures through planning. Identification of changing hazard patterns based upon near real-time assessment of stress on faults and fault populations. Will encourage: Development of geodetic and remote sensing methods Geology, Geomorphology and palaeoseismic studies The great majority of the funding will be on physical process research

Montserrat Increasing temporal and spatial resolution. WP-2

Progress Theme LeaderNERC Commissioning team TAPSISBCouncil Call 1 Select Advisory Group Select Scoping Studies Scoping Studies Call 2 Programme Advisory Group NOTE: Call 2 will be open to all consortia. Undertaking a scoping study is not a pre-condition for application. 2 Consortia Total value >£6million

Assessment and quantification of Uncertainty and Risk in Natural Hazards Handling of uncertainty & risk within the Natural Hazards community poor Push for good practice guidance on uncertainty & risk analysis, and formalisation of approach across natural hazards science Need to change the uncertainty and risk culture within the fragmented natural hazard community Scoping Study (2008) SAPPUR (Bristol)

Accounting for model limitations Combining evidence Accounting for unquantifiable uncertainties Improving risk models Flooding hazards Multi-phase fluid flow hazards Earthquake hazards Hydrometeorological hazards (non-flooding) Research Programme £2m (100%) over 4 years Single consortium Including KTPs

Summary & Conclusions Main focus on interdisciplinarity Multihazards Cutting edge natural AND social science Questions?