Process and methods Dr Alexander Smajgl (MERFI) MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute

ການຄົ້ນຫາອານາຄົດຂອງ ແມ່ນຳ້ງື່ມ ຄວາມເຊື່ອ ຕົວແບບທາງດ້ານມັນສະຫມອງ ວິໃສທັດ ການ ຕັດສິນ ໃຈທີ່ ເກີດ ຂື້ນ ຫລັກຖານດ້ານ ວິທະຍາສາດ ຄວາມເຊື່ອທາງ ເລືອກ MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute

Multiple methods to improve assessment quality Integrated modelling Expert panel Hydrological modelling Agricultural modelling Livelihood assessment MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute

Estimated seasonal flow changes in the Nam Ngum Basin (Lacombe et al Example: Hydrological modelling

Large potential benefits Total water use relatively small relative to total basin outflows Water requirements expand greatly with increased irrigated area Estimated total Agricultural Water Use MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute

Example: Agricultural modelling

What well being factors are you dissatisfied with? CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region FuturesPage 12 Poverty levels Irrigation

MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute (1) Keep the same set of livelihood activities and remain in their village (same and stay) (2) Keep the same set of livelihood activities, but go somewhere else (same and go) (3) Adjust their current set of livelihood activities (adjust) OR (4) Replace current livelihood activities with a completely new set of activities (replace) How will you respond to changes in livelihood factors? Profits/production down by 50%: 35% of people would NOT adapt Same and stay employment in industry62% Irrigation systems built52% More competition-less water 57%

MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute Adaptation intent by Province Higher adaptation XiengkhouangVientiane Vientiane Municipality Profit down by 50% Adapt 65%66%63% Competition for water Adapt 48%42%37% New irrigation schemes Adapt 38%51%56%

MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute Example: Integrated assessment

Improving assessment & covering more indicators Comparing results for consistency Stakeholders will involved to keep assessment on track Continuous capacity building MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute

Thank You Dr Alexander Smajgl (MERFI): Dr John Ward (MERFI) MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute