M&S 2010 Case Does news matter Is it science News Analysis Alchemy or; Child’s play? Technical Analysis Data or Dialogue? Fundamental Analysis But then what? Behavioural How to lose money Managed?

Enough to fund 20million HE students On-going bank costs £1,790,000,000,000

News Analysis Marks & Spencer Group PLC 30 July 2010 The Company's capital consists of 1,582,902,704 ordinary shares with voting rights. Therefore, the total number of voting rights in the Company is 1,582,902,704. Up 0.51% 31 August 2010 The Company's capital consists of 1,582,917,001 ordinary shares with voting rights. Therefore, the total number of voting rights in the Company is 1,582,917,001. Up 4.16% 01 November 2010 The Company's capital consists of 1,583,507,776 ordinary shares with voting rights. Therefore, the total number of voting rights in the Company is 1,583,507,776. Down 1.91% insight/news-analysis.html?fourWayKey=GB GBGBXSET1

“M&S seems to have the strongest momentum among the majors, with industry data still supportive,” said analyst Andrew Hughes. He estimated M&S to show “scarily good” same-store sales growth of 4 per cent for general merchandise and 3 per cent for food. By comparison, sales at Next and Argos stores may fall by 4.5 per cent and 6 per cent respectively, he forecast. December M&S finds favour as Footsie volumes slow for Christmas Financial Times December 16 th 2010

M&S finds favour as Footsie volumes slow for Christmas Financial Times December 16 th 2010

Technical Analysis resistance r e s i s t a n c e support s u p p o r t Bollinger bands B o l l i n g e r b a n d s Candle sticks C a n d l e s t i c k s Moving averages M o v i n g a v e r a g e s

Settlement as of 24/12/2010, at 5:45 p.m. Marks & Sp. fractionally up, achieving a modest profit of +0.43%. The day started well for the stock, which approached the previous session's peaks with a first price of 376.2, and stayed on a plateau during the entire session. The weekly analysis of the security and the FTSE 100 shows Marks & Sp. losing relative strength against the index. Status and Trend Analysis While the medium-term scenario still looks bearish, the short-term structure shows some promising signs, with support at 372 holding strong. The positive movement in the short term indicates a potential reversal of the bearish trend, with the possibility of prices flirting with the key resistance level of 378. Thus there is a good chance of the bullish phase continuing towards the 384 level. Risk Analysis The security's level of risk is currently under control, with daily volatility at 1.641, whilst daily volume remains high, having risen above the 1-month volume moving average in the last session. Marks & Sp.'s stable movement suggests that institutional investors have an interest in the security, to the extent that they can exert a high degree of control over its trend, which appears orderly and without strong fluctuations. Last year, United lost at home only twice: to Chelsea and to Aston Villa. That loss to Villa was during this very weekend of fixtures a year ago

Fundamental Analysis

‘Quants’ Buy and hold Conditions are 'right' in the short run, the market is a voting machine, not a weighing machine "being greedy when other people are fearful and fearful when other people are greedy." value investing Growth stocks > 15% If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you've wasted 10 minutes Peter Lynch

Cash flow Sales volume Retail price Inflation Interest Exchange rates Costs Inflation Interest exchange Exchange rates WACC Cost of equity Cost of debt Beta Market return Risk free return Dividend Share price

Behavioural Heuristics applied to surfing

Rule of 72. divide the number 72 by whatever yield you are getting to see how long it would take for your investment to double. “120 Minus Your Age” Rule. That is your percentage of stock allocation. The Long Term Inflation Average Is 4% Very Few Years Are “Average”. You Need 20x Your Gross Annual Income to Retire. Save and Invest 10% of Your Pre-Tax Income. 10, 5, 3 Rule. You can expect a nominal return of 10% from equities, 5% return from bonds and 3% return on highly liquid cash Required Return. Required return = risk free rate + beta (historical market return – risk free rate).

Stereotypes and anecdotes

mis-pricings and return anomalies

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