Kimberley Zuill BWS Director February/March 2015 EMO Briefing 2015 Pre Tsunami Exercise Briefing 1.Basic Tsunami information 2.Is Bermuda at risk? 3.What are BWS SOPs regarding Tsunamis? 4.What do BWS Tsunami Watches or Warnings look like? 5.Overview of LANTEX 2015 Exercise scenario 6.Request for participation & feedback – What would you do? 7.Problems & Potential Solution ideas 8.Briefing outcomes

Tsunami Basics Tsunamis form from water displacement from usually earthquakes but also undersea land slides. A tsunami is a SERIES of “wall-like” deep waves that travel the same speed as a jet. Out in the open ocean boats may not even notice the tsunami Even small tsunami waves can cause lots of damage from currents and debris Tsunamis are NOT weather dependent! Topographical and bathymetric effects cause small scale complications that Computer models cannot resolve (due to resolution – BDA challenges in this area) NOAA Tsunami Basics – 3:18min

In each of the following videos Notice: 1) the sky- weather independent – blue in first, cloudy in second 2) various sizes of the waves - they are not all movie monster waves 3) can you see the “drag” of water out prior to the first wave? 4) series of waves – no “drag out” in subsequent waves 5) the currents / eddies / debris 6) panic of the people & helplessness in their cries watching the disaster 1:50min) (14:49min) Tsunami Basics

Tsunami SOPs at Bermuda Weather Service Conforms (where possible) to existing warning system formats for significant weather events. Disseminated via the same means as Severe Thunderstorm/Hurricane/ Marine Storm Watches & Warnings Includes information from WCATWC &/or PTWC Potentially incorporates prescribed information from local Emergency measures Organisation (not done in other warnings thus far)

Tsunami Message arrives via AFTN/FAX/Phone/ /Website Covering the Atlantic &/or Caribbean Confirm with RCC Bermuda Radio, Log phone call Is the Originator PTWC/WCATWC/CTWP? Call Director/Deputy Director YesNo YesNo Does Message specify a tsunami threat to Bermuda? Threat confirme d No threat Confirm threat to Bermuda with PTWC/WCATWC/CTWP – Log response. Find out Travel Time if available. No Local Watch/Warning required. Keep Director/DD, COMOPs Apprised Follow chart opposite to determine what Local Watch/Warning to Issue Potential Tsunami, but not Imminent, e.g. Southern Atlantic Source No Action until confirmation Advise PTWC, COMOPs of no Action taken Monitor Situation Closely No Action until confirmation Advise PTWC, COMOPs of no Action taken Monitor Situation Closely Potential Tsunami, Possibly Imminent, e.g. Mid Atlantic Ridge Issue a Tsunami Watch for Bermuda Note: At Director’s Discretion, a Warning may be required dependent on Situation Advise PTWC, COMOPs of Watch/Warning Issued Monitor Situation Closely Issue a Tsunami Watch for Bermuda Note: At Director’s Discretion, a Warning may be required dependent on Situation Advise PTWC, COMOPs of Watch/Warning Issued Monitor Situation Closely Confirmed Tsunami, but not Imminent, e.g. East Atlantic Source Issue a Tsunami Watch for Bermuda Advise PTWC, COMOPs of Watch Issued Monitor Situation Closely Issue a Tsunami Watch for Bermuda Advise PTWC, COMOPs of Watch Issued Monitor Situation Closely Confirmed Tsunami, confirmed as Imminent, e.g. Puerto Rico source Issue a Tsunami Warning for Bermuda Advise PTWC, COMOPs of Warning Issued Monitor Situation Closely Issue a Tsunami Warning for Bermuda Advise PTWC, COMOPs of Warning Issued Monitor Situation Closely Does Message indicate a travel time to Bermuda? Yes No Duty Forecaster only beyond this stage! They are responsible for Watches/Warnings Duty Forecaster &/or Observer Duty Forecaster Only Tsunami Watches & Warnings - Actions to Take Definitions PTWC: Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Ewa Beach Hawaii (operated by NOAA) – Designated international Tsunami Warning Center with responsibilities for Bermuda. WCATWC: West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer, Alaska (operated by NOAA) – backup Tsunami Warning Center with responsibilities for Bermuda. CTWP: Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program in Mayaguez, Puerto Rico (operated by NOAA) – Not fully operational as yet; being set up to take on responsibilities for the Caribbean and Northwest Atlantic RCC Bermuda – Bermuda Maritime Operations Centre/Rescue Coordination Centre Bermuda/Bermuda Radio Imminent: travel time 4 hours or less from Bermuda, or within 1000 nm of Bermuda Levels of Confirmation 1)WCATWC, PTWC, CTWP, Local reports of inundation from RCC Bermuda Radio, Police, Fire Service, Regiment, or other Government of Bermuda sources. 2) Reports of impact from other overseas reporting stations (e.g. weather services, airports, military/police installations) 3) Visual evidence from news reports, buoy data, webcams etc. Definitions PTWC: Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Ewa Beach Hawaii (operated by NOAA) – Designated international Tsunami Warning Center with responsibilities for Bermuda. WCATWC: West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer, Alaska (operated by NOAA) – backup Tsunami Warning Center with responsibilities for Bermuda. CTWP: Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program in Mayaguez, Puerto Rico (operated by NOAA) – Not fully operational as yet; being set up to take on responsibilities for the Caribbean and Northwest Atlantic RCC Bermuda – Bermuda Maritime Operations Centre/Rescue Coordination Centre Bermuda/Bermuda Radio Imminent: travel time 4 hours or less from Bermuda, or within 1000 nm of Bermuda Levels of Confirmation 1)WCATWC, PTWC, CTWP, Local reports of inundation from RCC Bermuda Radio, Police, Fire Service, Regiment, or other Government of Bermuda sources. 2) Reports of impact from other overseas reporting stations (e.g. weather services, airports, military/police installations) 3) Visual evidence from news reports, buoy data, webcams etc. Does Message indicate that a basin-wide tsunami or a tsunami affecting the Bermuda area may be/has been generated? Yes No No action necessary

2015 Exercise Scenario March 25 th, 2015 – 13h00 UTC (10am local time) M 6.8 Earthquake 215miles east of Port Canaveral, Florida at 28.8 º N,77.0 º W Earthquake generates an undersea landslide, which in turn generates a tsunami Kick off messages will be sent by both PTWC and NTWC Enhanced products (started last year LANTEX14) will be issued for this scenario

2015 Exercise Scenario Kick off messages will be sent by both PTWC and NTWC PTWC has the responsibility of warning all non-US entities e.g. Caribbean/Bermuda Enhanced products (started in LANTEX14) will be issued by PTWC for this scenario Forecasted Tsunami Wave Heights for Florida submarine landslide tsunami scenario, showing tsunami at 5 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours, and 3 hours.

Bermuda First wave Less than 2 hrs after earthquake = just before noon local time EXPECT more waves behind it!! * Remember a tsunami is a SERIES of waves

Sea level time series for Bermuda

= estimate 1.8m / 6ft wave without extra effects!! E.g. Piling, topography enhancements!

Message Chronology Florida Scenario N.B. BWS will disseminate Tsunami Watches/Warnings based on the data we receive in these message from PTWC (responsible for our area)

Wednesday, 25 March 2015 BWS – Drill of communication systems, reenacting scenario as if real event. Your division / department / family ?????? Today is the first step! What would you do on Wed?

Feedback – Awareness & Improvement BWS will participants 10 question survey using Monkey Survey.com BWS creates an annual LANTEX report Depending on interest – BWS will consider an online video summary

Problems: (Potential Solutions?) Action 1.There is no official ALERT system in place.(Text message/Sirens?) 2.People do not know what to do = panic/ confusion(Public Awareness/Education/ annual LANTEX/CARIBE WAVE exercise drill at various levels to lead to improvements in the system.) Policy & Paperwork 1.SOPs for various agencies may not cover response to Tsunami events (creation of departmental and DM level SOPs for tsunami response) 2.Although recognized internationally as the Tsunami Warning Focal Point, BWS still does not have any documentation from either Government or Government House to carry out any objectives related to tsunamis. Potential legal implications in/during/after an event. (Letter of delegation for BWS to be responsible for local tsunami information dissemination) 3.Time constraints impacting DM agencies getting the “what to do” message out swiftly to the public. (Pre-approved EMO statements of action to be disseminated (by BWS) along with situation specific info at the start of the event.)

There is no ALERT system in place Potential Solution: Sirens Here are some examples of sirens used in regions where tsunamis are common. (Note: sirens are just an alert – that can be used to warn the public that there is a danger The public then needs to understand to go to an information source for further details Regarding the hazard and proposed public response. Such as EMO website or 100.1FM) What a tsunami warning siren alert and warning message sounds like in Guam Image of University of Hawaii siren – just alert no voice warning

Public Education/Awareness Insert useful maps and information in the “EMERGENCY PLAN for the General Public” - Dept Health (Last edition 2006) High ground Stations (BWS addition)

Kimberley Zuill BWS Director February/March 2015 EMO Briefing Outcomes After the 2015 Pre Tsunami Exercise Briefing the audience: 1.Acquires Basic Tsunami information & understands the BDA risk 2.Understands what BWS Tsunami Watches or Warnings look like 3.Receives an overview of BWS SOPs & LANTEX15 Exercise scenario 4.Considers participating in the exercise on some level – if even to contemplate on each message “What would you do?” 5.Those that participate in the exercise complete the short survey 6.Consider drafting your own departmental SOPs & family plan 7.Consider other Problems & the Potential Solution ideas 8.Commit to the creation of a solid set of SOPs to improve DM in BDA 9.EMO–Delegation letter for BWS/Pre-approved public statements/Sirens/Text message alerts 10. Public Education