Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.

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Presentation transcript:

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2007 Water Year UW Climate Impacts Group October 3, 2006, Kelso, WA

Part I West Wide Hydrologic Forecast System

Experimental W. US Hydrologic Forecast System Soil Moisture Initial Condition Snowpack Initial Condition

Experimental Western US Hydrologic Forecast System ESP ENSO/PDO ENSO CPC Official Outlooks NCEP CFS CAS OCN SMLR CCA CA NSIPP/GMAO dynamical model VIC Hydrolog y Model NOAA NASA UW Multiple Seasonal Climate Forecast Data Sources

Hydrologic Model-based Forecasting ICs Spin-upForecast obs recently observed meteorological data ensemble of met. data to generate forecast hydrologic state

targeted statistics e.g., runoff volumes monthly hydrographs spatial forecast maps

Flow location maps give access to monthly hydrograph plots, and also to raw forecast data. Clicking the stream flow forecast map also accesses current basin-averaged conditions Applications: streamflow Introduction

Soil Moisture for last 2 weeks The daily update of surface conditions enables animationed views of recent changes

Other views of changing hydrologic conditions forecast/monitor/ Soil moisture change in last month

WY 2007 Forecast

Average annual water cycle The PNW hydrologic cycle PNW Where we are now on average  soil moisture near annual low  runoff near low  nearly all water year precipitation yet to come  snow season not really underway  evaporation not a factor

The PNW hydrologic cycle  water balance Note that there is variability in soil moisture now… current

Oct. 1 Soil Moisture Comparison THIS YEAR LAST YEARTHIS YEAR

Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Dalles: 100 / 88 ESPESP - El Nino

Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Snake: 96 / 83 ESPESP - El Nino

Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Upper Snake: 95 / 83 ESPESP - El Nino

Recap of WY 2006

Recap WY2006, Dec. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil MoistureSWE

Recap WY2006, Jan. 1 hydrologic conditions

Recap WY2006, Feb. 1 hydrologic conditions

Recap WY2006, Mar. 1 hydrologic conditions

Recap WY2006, Apr. 1 hydrologic conditions

Recap WY2006, May. 1 hydrologic conditions

Recap WY2006, Jul. 1 hydrologic conditions

Winter : seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

Winter : seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

Part II ENSO/PDO Forecasts

ENSO is typically very stable from Oct-Jan

Evaluation of Sept 1 ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast for WY WY 2003 WY 2004WY 2005

Used range: Jan3.4 >= -0.4 Jan3.4 <= 0.6 Evaluation of Aug 1 ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast for WY 2006

Nino to 0.6 Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY (Nino3.4 anomalies between -0.4 and 0.6) Naturalized Flow (cfs) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = Observed Blue = Ensemble Mean

Natural Flows at Milner

Natural Streamflow (KAF) WY 2006 Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations

October 1 Spin Up System Storage Forecast from SnakeSim: Jackson Lake Palisades Island Park Ririe American Falls Lake Walcott Nino3.4 anomaly between -0.4 and 0.6 C Demand aligned with water cond. Active Reservoir Storage (kaf) Obs. System Storage Oct 8, 2006

Nino to 0.6 Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY (Nino3.4 anomalies between 0.0 and 0.6) Naturalized Flow (cfs) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = Observed Blue = Ensemble Mean

WY 2007 Forecast

Natural Flows at Milner

Milner 2007 Nino3.4 Range 0.7 to 1.5 Natural Flow (KAF) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations 2007 Forecast for Natural Flow at Milner

Milner 2007 Nino3.4 Range 0.7 to 1.5 Warm PDO Natural Flow (KAF) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations 2007 Forecast for Natural Flow at Milner

Upper Snake Storage (KAF) 2007 System Storage Forecasts for the Upper Snake (Oct-Aug) Nino3.4 Range 0.7 to 1.5 Nino3.4 Range Warm PDO Full

Modified Flow (cfs) Ensemble Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles for WY (Nino3.4 anomalies between 0.7 and 1.5) Black = Climatological Extremes Gray = Forecast Ensemble Members Red = LTM from Blue = Ensemble Mean

All Years (‘60-’99) Nino3.4 Composite Long-Range Ensemble Forecasts of System-Wide Columbia Basin Hydropower Production for Water Year 2007.

Summary of Ensemble Average Hydropower Production for All Years (‘60-’99) Vs. Nino3.4 Composite Nino3.4 composite is about 7% lower

Regionally Averaged Cool Season Precipitation Anomalies PRECIP

Selected References on Compositing Techniques: Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P., 1999: Columbia River Streamflow Forecasting Based on ENSO and PDO Climate Signals, ASCE J. of Water Res. Planning and Mgmt., 125 (6) : Werner, K., Brandon, D., Clark, M., et al., 2004: Climate index weighting schemes for NWS ESP-based seasonal volume forecasts, J. of Hydrometeorology, 5 (6):

Conclusions: The WY 2006 ESP forecast predicted a range of flows centered around near normal conditions. Actual flows in 2006 were towards the upper range of this forecast, probably due in part to an unusually large ENSO forecast error. A moderate warm ENSO event is expected for the winter of ESP traces from associated with a forecasted range of Nino3.4 anomalies from suggest elevated drought risks for WY 2007, and lower carryover storage in the upper Snake at the end of WY 2007.