Is the Environment a Security Issue? Emily Meierding Department of Political Science University of Chicago

Climate Insecurity? Upper left image: National Geographic (2008). “ Climate stress may well represent a challenge to international society just as dangerous – and more intractable — than the arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union during the cold war or the proliferation of nuclear weapons among rogue states today. ” --Thomas Homer-Dixon, NYT

Overview 1.Does climate change create real-world insecurity? (empirical concern) 2.Should we call climate change a security issue? (normative concern)

The Academic Perspective Q:Is climate change a security issue?

The Academic Perspective Q:Is climate change a security issue? A: Maybe. We don’t know (yet?)

Data Problems For the most part, for environmental variables We don’t have data at the regional level We don’t have multiple years of national data We don’t have data for all countries Data were often collected in different years

Climate Change(in)Security The Climate Change-Security Equation

Climate Change(in)Security = Temperature Change The Climate Change-Security Equation

Climate Change(in)Security = Temperature Change = Civil War The Climate Change-Security Equation

Climate Change(in)Security = Temperature Change = Civil War ? The Climate Change-Security Equation

Causal Pathways Rise in Temp. Crop Failure Rebellion Migration (urban) Migration (rural) Reduction in state revenue Violent State Response Riots in over- crowded slums Conflict with local ethnic groups State weakness Decline in social services Police response Armed intervention by state Coup attempts Grievance- induced rebellion

Previous Research NATO Environment and Conflicts Project (ENCOP), led by Gunther Baechler. Environmental Change and Conflict Project (ECACP), led by Thomas Homer-Dixon. Environment, Scarcity, and Violence (1999) and Ecoviolence (1998), edited by THD and Jessica Blitt Collapse (2005), Jared Diamond CRITICISM: Nils Petter Gleditsch, “Armed Conflict and the Environment: a Critique of the Literature” (1998) Journal of Peace Research.

Causal Pathways Rise in Temp. Crop Failure Rebellion Migration (urban) Migration (rural) Reduction in state revenue Violent State Response Riots in over- crowded slums Conflict with local ethnic groups State weakness Decline in social services Police response Armed intervention by state Coup attempts Grievance- induced rebellion

Security: of What and for Whom? Conventional View: National Military Security New Perspectives: 1970s: Economic Security, Energy Security 1980s: Food Security 1987: Human Security, The Brundtland Report “Redefining Security” to include the environment Lester Brown (1977) Jessica Tuchman Mathews (1989)

The Language of Security PROSCONS

The Language of Security Heightened sense of importance PROSCONS

The Language of Security Heightened sense of importance More $$$ PROSCONS

The Language of Security Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization PROSCONS

The Language of Security Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization Promotes solidarity PROSCONS

The Language of Security Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization Promotes solidarity Burnout PROSCONS

The Language of Security Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization Promotes solidarity Burnout Bad fit PROSCONS

The Language of Security Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization Promotes solidarity Burnout Bad fit Military polluters PROSCONS

The Language of Security Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization Promotes solidarity Burnout Bad fit Military polluters Us vs. them thinking PROSCONS

The Language of Security Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization Promotes solidarity Burnout Bad fit Military polluters Us vs. them thinking Empowers nasty regimes PROSCONS

Alternative Frameworks Agricultural issue Economic Development issue Governance issue Human Rights/ Social Justice issue