Part 2: Planning Chapter 4 Foundations of Decision Making 決策的基礎

4–2 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Learning Objectives 1.Decision-making process 決策程序 2.Rational decision-making model 理性的決策模式 3.Define certainty, risk, and uncertainty 4.Bounded-rational decision maker 5.Types of decision problems and decisions 6.Decision-making styles 7.Group Decision Making

4–3 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Decision-making Decision-making process  A set of eight steps that includes identifying a problem, selecting a solution, and evaluating the effectiveness of the solution Problem  A discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs Decision criteria 決策參考依據項目（決策準繩）  Factors that are relevant in a decision

4–4 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 The Decision-Making Process EXHIBIT 4.2

4–5 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Examples of Planning-Function Decisions  What are the organization’s long-term objectives?  What strategies will best achieve those objectives?  What should the organization’s short-term objectives be?  What is the most efficient means of completing tasks?  What might the competition be considering?  What budgets are needed to complete department tasks?  How difficult should individual goals be? EXHIBIT 4.1

4–6 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Criteria 項目 and Weight 加權 in Car-Buying Decision (Scale of 1 to 10) EXHIBIT 4.3 CRITERIONWEIGHT Price10 Interior comfort8 Durability5 Repair record5 Performance3 Handling1

4–7 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Assessment of Car Alternatives EXHIBIT 4.4 INITIALINTERIORDURA-REPAIR ALTERNATIVESPRICECOMFORTBILITYRECORDPERFORMANCEHANDLINGTOTAL Jeep Cherokee Ford Mustang Mercedes C Pontiac Grand Am Mazda Tribute Dodge Durango Volvo S Isuzu Axiom BMW Audi A Toyota Camry Volkswagen Passat

4–8 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Weighting of Vehicles (Assessment Criteria X Criteria Weight) EXHIBIT 4.5

4–9 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 練習：找出決策參考項目 (criteria) 與加權 (weight) 思考以下的常見的決策問題： 選舉：選出長大 ( 資管系 ) 最．．．的．．．？ 尋找伴侶：吾家有女（男）初長成，已有數位 追求者，如何決定一如意對象？ 就業求職：吾家小榮（蓉）即將畢業於長榮資 管系，投入職場，如何在眾家廠商機關中，決 定一個較合適的工作？ 企業徵才：如長大電算中心徵求資訊人才 請以小組討論方式，完成決策的 criteria （參考項 目）及 weight （加權）

4–10 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Decision-making (cont’d) Decision implementation 決策執行  Putting a decision into action; includes conveying the decision to the persons who will be affected by it and getting their commitment to it

4–11 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 The Rational Model 理性決策模式 三種決策狀況 Certainty 確定  The implication that the outcome of every possible alternative is known 任何可能方案之結果都已知 Risk 風險  The probability that a particular outcome will result from a given decision 已知每一方案造成結果之機率 Uncertainty 不確定  A condition under which there is not full knowledge of the problem and reasonable probabilities for alternative outcomes cannot be determined. 問題、 結果、及發生的機率都不清楚

4–12 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Decision Tree （決策樹） and Expected Values （期 望值） for Renting a Large or Small Retail Space EXHIBIT QM–3

4–13 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Assumptions of Rationality 理性模式的假設

4–14 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Making Decisions: The Rational Model Rational  Describes choices that are consistent and value- maximizing within specified constraints 處理所有的 資訊以達成理性（不可能）。 Bounded rationality  Behavior that is rational within the parameters of a simplified model that captures the essential features of a problem 簡化或有限的模型理性下來理 性地進行其行為 Satisfice  Making a “good enough” decision 滿意的決策而非最 佳的決策

4–15 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Three Elements of Creativity 創造力 EXHIBIT 4.7 Source: T. M. Amabile, “Motivating Creativity in Organizations,” California Management Review (Fall 1997): 43. Creativity The ability to produce novel and useful ideas 產生新而有用的想法

4–16 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Common Decision-making Errors Heuristics: Using judgmental shortcuts 捷思或經 驗法則  Availability heuristic 可獲性捷思  the tendency for people to base their judgments on information that is readily available to them  Representative heuristic 代表性捷思  The tendency for people to base judgments of probability on things with which they are familiar Escalation of commitment 持續增加投注  An increased commitment to a previous decision despite negative information  知其不可而為之

4–17 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 The impossible dream To dream the impossible dream To fight the unbeatable foe To bear with unbearable sorrow To run where the brave dare not go To right the unrightable wrong To be better far than you are To try when your arms are too weary To reach the unreachable star This is my quest, to follow that star No matter how hopeless, no matter how far To be willing to give when there's no more to give To be willing to die so that honor and justice may live And I know if I'll only be true to this glorious quest That my heart will lie peaceful and calm When I'm laid to my rest And the world will be better for this That one man scorned and covered with scars Still strove with his last ounce of courage To reach the unreachable star 不可能的夢 做難圓之夢 擊不敗之敵 忍難忍之悲 赴險懼之途 更正一個無法更正的錯誤 做一個比你現在更好的人 試試看，當你的雙手軟弱無力 登不上那無法到達的星星 追隨那顆星，是我的盼望 不論希望多麼渺茫，不管多麼遙遠 儘管已無法付出，仍然渴望付出 寧可犧牲，只願榮耀與正義長存 我明白只要忠於對榮耀的追尋 我心必能寧靜祥和 當我躺下度過餘生 世界會因此變得更好 當有人被蔑視，身上滿覆傷疤 卻依然以他僅存的勇氣努力奮戰 攀上那無法到達的星星

4–18 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 How Do Problems Differ? Well-structured problems 結構化  Straightforward, familiar, easily defined problems Ill-structured problems 非結構化  New problems in which information is ambiguous or incomplete Programmed decision 程序化決策  A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach Nonprogrammed decisions 非程序化決策  Decisions that must be custom-made to solve unique and nonrecurring problems

4–19 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Programmed Decision-Making Aids Policy 政策  A general guide that establishes parameters for making decisions about recurring problems Procedure 程序  A series of interrelated sequential steps that can be used to respond to a well-structured problem (policy implementation) Rule 法規  An explicit statement that tells managers what they ought or ought not to do (limits on procedural actions)

4–20 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Types of Problems, Types of Decisions, and Level in the Organization EXHIBIT 4.8

4–21 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Technology And Decision Making Expert systems 專家系統  Software that acts like an expert in analyzing and solving ill-structured problems  Use specialized knowledge about a particular problem area rather than general knowledge  Use qualitative reasoning rather than numerical calculations  Perform at a level of competence higher than that of nonexpert humans. Neural networks 類神經網路  Software that is designed to imitate the structure of brain cells and connections among them

4–22 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Decision-Making Styles Exhibit 4.9

4–23 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 現代管理學 4-13

4–24 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Decision Making: Styles Directive style  Characterizes the low tolerance for ambiguity and a rational way of thinking of individuals who are logical and efficient and typically make fast decisions that focus on the short term. Analytic style  Characterizes the high tolerance for ambiguity combined with a rational way of thinking of individuals who prefer to have complete information before making a decision.

4–25 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Decision Making: Styles (cont’d) Conceptual style  Individuals who tend to be very broad in outlook, to look at many alternatives, and to focus on the long run and often look for creative solutions. Behavioral style  Individuals who think intuitively but have a low tolerance for uncertainty; they work well with others, are open to suggestions, and are concerned about the individuals who work for them.

4–26 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 一店老闆剛關上店裏的燈, 有一男子 來到勒索錢款, 店老闆打開收銀機, 收銀機裏的東西被倒了出來, 然後那 個男子逃走, 一員警很快接到報案 …… 測驗 請先閱讀一則小故事 第一次每個人將問題答案寫下 第二次每小組討論，寫下小組的答案，但不要去改個人 之前的答案

4–27 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 故事中涉及到三個人物 : 店老闆, 勒索男子, 員警 2. 勒索者沒有把錢帶走 3. 店老闆燈關掉後, 一個男子走進來了 4. 勒索者打開了收銀機 5. 勒索者拿走了收銀機裏的東西後逃離 6. 勒索者向店老闆要錢款 7. 儘管收銀機中有錢, 但故事中沒有說有多少錢 8. 店老闆倒出收銀機的東西後逃走 9. 打開收銀機的那個人是店老闆 10. 來的勒索的那個人沒有拿到錢款 11. 勒索的人是個男子 12. 店老闆將店內的燈關掉後, 一男子來到 以下 12 題的答案有三種 : 正確 (Y), 不正確 (N), 不能肯定 (?)

4–28 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 故事中涉及到三個人物 : 店老闆, 勒索男子, 員警 -- Y 2. 勒索者沒有把錢帶走 -- ? 3. 店老闆燈關掉後, 一個男子走進來了 -- Y 4. 勒索者打開了收銀機 -- N 5. 勒索者拿走了收銀機裏的東西後逃離 -- ? 6. 勒索者向店老闆要錢款 -- Y 7. 儘管收銀機中有錢, 但故事中沒有說有多少錢 -- Y 8. 店老闆倒出收銀機的東西後逃走 -- ? 9. 打開收銀機的那個人是店老闆 -- Y 10. 來的勒索的那個人沒有拿到錢款 -- ? 11. 勒索的人是個男子 -- Y 12. 店老闆將店內的燈關掉後, 一男子來到 -- Y 一店老闆剛關上店裏的燈, 有一男子來到勒索錢款, 店老闆打開收銀機, 收銀機裏的東西被倒了出來, 然後那個男子逃走, 一員警很快接到報案 ……

4–29 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Group Decision Making Advantages  Make more accurate decisions  Provides more complete information 完整的資訊  Offers a greater diversity of experiences and perspectives  Generates more alternatives 更多可行方案  Increases acceptance of a solution 增加接受程度  Increases the legitimacy of a decision. 增加合法性 Disadvantages  Is more time-consuming and less efficient 費時  Minority domination can influence decision process 少數壟斷  Increased pressures to conform to the group’s mindset 服從的壓力 (groupthink)  Ambiguous responsibility for the outcomes of decisions 模糊的責任

4–30 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 When Are Groups Most Effective? Creativity  Groups tend to be more creative than individuals. Acceptance of the final solution  Groups help increase the acceptance of decisions. Effectiveness of group decision making  Groups of five to seven members are optimal for decision process speed and quality.

4–31 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 Improving Group Decision Making Brainstorming 腦力激盪  An idea-generating process that encourages alternatives while withholding criticism Nominal group technique 名目群體  A decision-making technique in which group members are physically present but operate independently Electronic meeting 電子會議  A type of nominal group technique in which participants are linked by computer

4–32 Management─ Foundations of Decision Making 吳明泉博士 2005 名目群體（ Norminal Group Technique NGT ） 1. 針對特定問題，與會者先寫下主張或構想； 2. 與會者逐一公開說明、討論（但不能互相批評） 3. 每位與會者對各項主張或構想分別加以排序、 評分（最好以不干擾他人之方式） 4. 統計得分最高之項目（可為多數）即為最後決 定。