Lending Team Analysis AGEC 489-689 Spring 2010. Factors to Consider Credit scores assessing the borrower’s existing credit history. Business plan and.

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Presentation transcript:

Lending Team Analysis AGEC Spring 2010

Factors to Consider Credit scores assessing the borrower’s existing credit history. Business plan and purpose of the loan. Economic conditions in the borrower’s industry (i.e., livestock, crops, input supply and other area of agribusiness). Stress testing the assumptions made by the borrowers in their baseline scenario.

What is a Credit Score?

Credit ScoringFundamentals Credit Scoring Fundamentals creditworthiness A credit score is a numerical expression based on a statistical analysis of a borrower’s credit history to represent his/her creditworthiness, which is the likelihood that the borrower will pay his/her debts in a timely manner. A credit score is primarily based on credit report information obtained from credit bureaus and credit reference agencies.

Credit ScoringFundamentals Credit Scoring Fundamentals potential risk who qualifies for a loan, at what interest, and what credit limits Lenders use credit scores to evaluate the potential risk posed by lending money and to mitigate losses due to bad debt. Lenders also use credit scores to determine who qualifies for a loan, at what interest, and what credit limits. potential employers Credit scoring is not limited to lending. Other organizations, such as mobile phone companies, insurance companies, and potential employers are examples of other users of credit scoring.

Fundamentals Credit Scoring A credit score is primarily based on credit report information typically from the three credit bureaus: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax. There are differing approaches to calculating credit scores. The FICO is a credit score developed by Fair Issac & Company. It is used by many mortgage lenders that use a risk-based system to determine the possibility that the borrower may default on financial obligations to the lender.

What is in a Credit Score? 1. Borrower’s payment history – past due payments and adverse records (i.e., bankruptcy, wage attachments, suits). 2. Amounts owed. 3. Length of credit history. 4. New credit undertaken. 5. Types of credit (i.e., credit cards mortgages).

What is Not Included? 1. Race, religion, national origin, sex and marital status of borrower. 2. Age of borrower. 3. Salary, occupation, employment history. 4. Where you live. 5. Interest charged on loans outstanding. 6. Child/family support obligations and rental agreements.

Widely-used FICO credit scores are calculated based on information from credit bureaus that collect information on borrower’s use of credit. The weights and factors captured in this score are shown below:

Loan automatically rejected below 500 Loan automatically accepted above 750 Consumer Credit Decisions More information required. Risk premium applied to interest rate. More information required. Risk premium applied to interest rate. Many retail firms offer credit cards, trade credit lines and even home mortgage loans to individuals based upon FICO credit scores, which range from 350 to a perfect score of 850. Assume a hypothetical retail firm makes the following decisions in extending credit:

4.467 % risk premium % risk premium Assume you are applying for a 30 year home mortgage loan for $300,000 fixed interest rate loan at a commercial bank. Based upon your FICO credit score in the first column below, the lender has decided to charge annual percentage rates (APR) shown in the second column below. This has a significant effect on your monthly loan payment as shown in the third column.

4.467 % risk premium % risk premium $930 difference in monthly loan payment!!!! Assume you are applying for a 30 year home mortgage loan for $300,000 fixed interest rate loan at a commercial bank. Based upon your FICO credit score in the first column below, the lender has decided to charge annual percentage rates (APR) shown in the second column below. This has a significant effect on your monthly loan payment as shown in the third column.

Scorecard Lending

Credit Standards only one Many agricultural lenders use credit scores as only one of several standards when evaluating loan applications. They will also include standards related to liquidity, solvency and debt repayment capacity (minimum current ratio of 1.50, maximum debt ratio of 0.50, minimum term debt and capital lease coverage ratio of 1.0). Lenders also focus on the “Six C’s” when assessing a borrower’s creditworthiness.

The Six C’s

Actual Scorecard Used to Underwrite loans

Standards Employed Agricultural dependent loans: 1.Current ratio standard (weight 20%) 4CR > 2.0 5CR between 1.50 – CR between 1.25 – CR between 1.10 – CR between 0.90 – CR between 0.80 – CR between 0.70 – CR < Debt coverage ratio standard (weight 35%) 4DCR > DCR between 1.40 – DCR between 1.25 – DCR between 1.20 – DCR between 1.15 – DCR between 1.05 – DCR < 1.05

Standards Employed Agricultural dependent loans: 3.Management/character standard (weight 10%) 4MC very strong 5MC strong 6MC above average 7MC average 8MC minor weaknesses 9MC some weaknesses 10MC serious weaknesses 11MC major weaknesses 4.Equity/asset ratio (weight 35%) 4ER > ER between ER between ER between ER between ER between ER < 40

Standards Employed Agricultural dependent loans: The total score is then calculated by a weighted average of the borrowers average: Current ratio standard20% Debt coverage ratio standard35% Management/character standard10% Equity/asset ratio standard35% Total 100% Non-agricultural dependent loans: The total score is then calculated by a weighted average of the borrowers average: Current ratio standard10% Debt coverage ratio standard30% Management/character standard10% On line credit bureau score20% Equity/asset ratio standard30% Total 100%

Extension to Pricing Loans

Hypothetical Scorecard 1.Credit score from credit bureau15%________ 2.Current ratio15%________ 3.Debt ratio20%________ 4.Debt coverage ratio30%________ 5.Other factors10%________ a. Continuing customer b. Primary commodity c. External control factors TOTAL SCORE________ Weight Points achieved The lender then decides the minimum score for automatic approval, automatic rejection, and range over which additional conditions must be met (risk premium, additional collateral, compensating balances, etc.

Hypothetical Scorecard 1.Credit score from credit bureau15%__12____ 2.Current ratio15%__13____ 3.Debt ratio20%__17____ 4.Debt coverage ratio30%__25____ 5.Other factors10%___9____ a. Continuing customer b. Primary commodity c. External control factors TOTAL SCORE__76____ Weight Points achieved The lender then decides the minimum score for automatic approval, automatic rejection, and range over which additional conditions must be met (risk premium, additional collateral, compensating balances, etc.

Loan automatically rejected if < 50 Loan automatically accepted if > 75 Score Card Lending Ruler Score Card Lending Ruler More information required. Risk premium applied to interest rate. More information required. Risk premium applied to interest rate. 50

Hypothetical Loan Rates Bank cost of funds4.0% Score > 756.0% Score = 71 – 757.0% Score = 66 – 707.5% Score = 61 – 658.0% Score = 56 – 608.5% Score = 51 – 559.0%

Your Decisions You must decide upon your bank’s credit standards and weights associated with each of these standards. You must decide on your credit score card ruler cutoffs. You must decide on the rates of interest you will charge based upon these scores. You must decide how much to stress test the lending team’s baseline scenario.