‘Dynamically simulated tropic storms in a changing climate and their impact on the assessment of future climate risk’ - PhD project Ray Bell Supervisors.

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Presentation transcript:

‘Dynamically simulated tropic storms in a changing climate and their impact on the assessment of future climate risk’ - PhD project Ray Bell Supervisors – Prof. Pier Luigi Vidale, Dr. Jane Strachan and Dr. Kevin Hodges

MOcean (Hons) – NOCS. Dissertation – Wind and wave variability in re-analysis and satellite measurements Met office placement 2010 Waves team – wave ensemble system About me

Impacts on the climate system, removing heat and moisture from the ocean affecting large scale circulation Socio-economic impacts Associated risk with climate change Katrina Current damage $91.5bn (ICAT, 2011) Motivation

Does dynamically simulated TC activity (location, frequency, intensity, structure and energetics) change in model simulations including anthropogenic forcing? Will the predictability of TC variability based on natural climate variability of large scale atmospheric modes break down under anthropogenic climate change? PhD outline

HiGEM (N144, 1/3 o ocean) - Higher resolution can resolve TCs better, important for intensity (Bengtsson et al, 2007) TRACK (Hodges) to indentify and track TCs Compare TCs in the transient run to the control run PhD project

Natural variability vs. Climate change (Webster et al, 2005; Pielke et al, 2005) Consensus on decreasing frequency globally (McDonald et al, 2005; Yamada et al, 2010) however contrasting regional changes Possible stronger winds (Bengtsson et al, 2007) Increasing GCM resolution... Increase in rainfall (Knutson et al, 2010) Previous studies

MSc modules (>50% of my time) Reading lists – Structure and dynamics, natural variability, climate change Tracking HiGAM data (developing TRACK, Linux and IDL skills) Work done so far

HiGAM 1979 Min mslp

Typhoon track

Reading – Natural variability, climate change 1 st chapter finished by October TRACK stats Tracking the HiGEM transient runs – compare to control runs and re-analysis/obs (Jane) CMIP5 data? Air-sea interaction? Future work

Collaborations Username: metoffice Password: metoffice_tc

References Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Esch, M. (2007). Tropical cyclones in a T159 resolution global climate model: comparison with observations and re-analysis. Tellus A, 59, 396–416. Knutson, T. R., McBridge, J. L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., Held, I., Kossin, J. P., Srivastava, A. K., and Sugi, M. (2010). Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat. Geosci., 3, 157–163. McDonald, R., Bleaken, D., Creswell, D., Pop e, V., and Senior, C. (2005). Tropical storms: representation and diagnosis in climate models and the impacts of climate change. J. Climate, 18, 1275–1262. Pielke, R. A. J., Landsea, C., Mayﬁeld, M., Laver, J., and Pasch, R. (2005). Hurricanes and global warming. Bul l. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 1571–1575. Webster, P., Holland, G., Curry, J., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309, 1844– Questions ???