Climate impacts of international aviation and maritime transport Preliminary results of the EU Integrated Project QUANTIFY and the Specific Support Action ATTICA Robert Sausen DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen Side Event on bunker fuels 11 May 2007, Bonn, DE

QUANTIFY Quantifying the Climate Impact of global and European Transport Systems Objective: To quantify the climate impact of the global and European transport systems for the present situation and for different scenarios of future development. Co-ordinator:Sausen, DLR-IPA Participants:41 from 19 countries Duration: March 2005 to February 2010 Funds: 8.4 M€ Total costs12.8M€

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 How can transport emissions impact climate ? Change of the radiative forcing by  the emission of greenhouse gases, including long-lived species like CO 2 and N 2 O, but also of water vapour;  the emission ozone precursors;  the emission of particles and their precursors;  triggering additional clouds (e.g., contrails, contrail cirrus) and by modifying natural clouds (e.g., ship tracks).

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Eyring et al., 2005 Emissions from different modes of transport in 2000 Contribution of transport to the total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions 2.7 % 2.2 % 13.8 %

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Aviation transport volume Fischer et al., 2007

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Does EU-15 comply with the Kyoto Protocol ? Equivalent CO 2 emissions relative to 1990 Kyoto target (2012) EU %

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Absolute equivalent CO 2 emissions since 1990

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Aviation and shipping emissions grow fast but still are only a minor fraction of the total emissions Equivalent CO 2 emissions relative to 1990 Absolute equivalent CO 2 emissions since 1990

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Updated Aviation Radiative Forcing for 2000 Sausen et al., 2005  T surf = · RF

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Shipping Radiative Forcing for 2000

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Updated Aviation Radiative Forcing for 2000 Sausen et al., 2005 Questions: Is RF the optimal variable to compare the future impact resulting from various aviation-induced contributions to climate change ? Is this a proper way to include the non-CO 2 effects of aviation in emission trading (key word RFI) ?

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Emissions and radiative forcing RF(t=2000):Result of all past emissions Measure of future climate change only if RF constant.. A1

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 What knowledge is necessary in order to evaluate the climate impact of transport ?  What did transport contribute to climate change until now? Understanding the climate system  What is the contribution of the transport of 2000 (or any other year) to climate change ? Tool for regulating emissions  What is the impact of mitigation options ? Scenario simulations

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Emissions and radiative forcing marginal radiative forcing  RF(t=2000): radiative forcing due to emissions of year 2000

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Metrics for evaluating impact on climate  radiative forcing RF(t=2000)  marginal radiative forcing  RF(t) "pulse" and "sustained"  integrated (marginal) radiative forcing "pulse" and "sustained"  temperature change  T(t) "pulse" and "sustained"

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Pulse_2000: Integrated radiative forcing

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Pulse_2000: Temperature change

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Pulse_2000: Normalised ( CO 2 ) temperature change Index =

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Final remarks  CO 2 (and other "Kyoto" gases) can easily be included in an emission trading scheme.  Large uncertainty exists with respect to the climate impact of non-CO 2 emissions from aviation and shipping.  In general, radiative forcing at a certain time is no good measure for the expected climate change. Therefore, the RFI is not suitable for emission trading.  Multiplying CO 2 emissions by any simple multiplication factor would weaken incentives to reduce the total climate impact beyond a reduction of the fuel consumption.  Eventually, it might become possible to include non-CO 2 effects by their individual contributions to climate change.  Often emissions have further effects beyond climate change, e.g., impact on air quality.

UNFCCC Bonn 2007 ATTICA: European Assessment of Transport Impacts on Climate Change and Ozone Depletion Start: 1 June 2006 End: 30 November 2009