THE WORLD IS NOT RUNNING OUT OF OIL!!!! (That is a problem)

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Presentation transcript:

THE WORLD IS NOT RUNNING OUT OF OIL!!!! (That is a problem)

Conventional Oil Production

The New Oil Fields

Coal can be converted to liquid fuel

We are running out of atmosphere faster than we are running out of fossil fuels

Oil + Oxygen  CO 2 + water + energy Rainforest + Oxygen  CO 2 + water + fire Food + Oxygen  CO 2 + water + satisfaction How humans add carbon dioxide

The air you breathe: Nitrogen (79%) Oxygen (20%) Carbon Dioxide?-- Trace

Increasing Carbon Dioxide: the Greenhouse Effect Image source: DOE website

1896: Crazy Swede accurately predicts impact of greenhouse gases? Svante Arrhenius– discoverer of the Greenhouse Effect Predicted 7-11 degree warming with doubling of carbon dioxide Current predictions similar

Carbon dioxide directly measured since late 1950s

Sources of carbon dioxide released by US Image source: DOE website

DIRECT OBESERVATIONS (Fig SPM-3, IPCC 2007)

Reconstructed global temps (source: National Research Council 2006)

Carbon dioxide levels 1850: 270 ppm Now: 384 ppm 2009: 388 ppm 2100: 550+ ppm If we burned all known fossil fuel reserves: 1900 ppm

Future Temperature in Minnesota Year: 2100 CO 2 : 550 ppm Temp increase- global surface average (IPCC 2007) Range= F Mean = 8.1 F for land, 5.2 for ocean Mean = 5.4 F for Central America, 14.4 F for Northern Canada Temp increase in MN Much greater than global average in winter Slightly greater during summer

Precipitation changes? Much harder to predict than temperature Consensus estimate for Upper Midwest (IPCC 2001): –5-20% wetter winters –5-20% drier summers

Future drought may be severe NAST 2000

Climate Change in Minnesota

Will Minnesota become one big prairie? Minnesotans for an Energy Efficient Economy

Pollen record reveals past vegetation Arabidopsis pollen

History of Forest Movement in Minnesota Pollen and charcoal suggest that prairieforest border has swung wildly “Grassiness” last peaked years ago with warm dry climate “Woodiness” waxes and wanes on decade to century scale. Source: Clark et al. (2001) Ecology 82:

12,000 Years of the Prairie-Forest Border (history of the Clark et al study sites) North Dakota MinnesotaWisconsin 12,000Forest 9,000Prairie Forest 6,000PrairiePrairie / Forest Mix Forest 3,000PrairieForest NowPrairieForest

How can this be avoided?

What to do? Pacala and Socolow 2004 advocate 7 x 1GT “stabilization wedges”