Poli 103A California Politics Parties and Redistricting - scribers/ - sp?i=12

Parties and Redistricting Why California Has Weak Parties Roles of parties History of nomination processes in CA The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting Rules of the game Rules of thumb Can we judge redistricting plans?

Why California Has Weak Parties In American politics, a party’s most important functions are selecting a nominee and supporting that nominee in a general election. In Europe, parties are much more active in influencing the votes of their legislators and disciplining them by controlling their careers.

Why California Has Weak Parties Nominating Candidates In California’s history, the process of selecting party nominees has undergone significant changes. The Convention System, Parties got to throw their own parties, managing and paying for conventions that were not regulated by the state.

Why California Has Weak Parties Nominating Candidates The Convention System No laws against bribing delegates. No laws guaranteeing delegates the right to vote at a convention. “Both sneaks and sluggers were employed as the occasion dictated.” –C. Edward Merriam, Streetfights between the longhair and shorthair Union partisans in 1866.

Why California Has Weak Parties Nominating Candidates Direct primaries with cross-filing, initiative, pushed by Progressives, had the state take over and finance primaries in which party members voted. Cross-filing removed a candidate’s party label from the primary ballot, and allowed candidates to run in multiple primaries

Why California Has Weak Parties Nominating Candidates Cross-Filing Party members could still select their nominee, but they often chose an incumbent from the other party initiative attached party labels abolition of cross filing prevented candidates from running in more than one party primary.

Why California Has Weak Parties Nominating Candidates Blanket Primary, Proposition 198, financed by moderate Republicans and reformers, let voters chose the primary in which they would participate. Meant to bring independents and moderates into the process, and select more moderate nominees.

Why California Has Weak Parties Nominating Candidates The danger to parties was that by opening up their primaries to non- members, they might select: Republicans’ favorite Democrat & vice-versa “Turkeys” who can’t win general election The US Supreme Court agreed that this system violated a party’s freedom of association in California Democratic Party vs. Jones, 2000

Why California Has Weak Parties Nominating Candidates

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of the Game After each census (2000, 1990,..) new congressional, state Senate, and state Assembly districts drawn because: CA always gets more seats in Congress. Old districts no longer = in population. Plan must pass Senate and Assembly with simple majorities and be signed by the governor, requiring compromise.

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of the Game If elected officials fail to reach an agreement, redistricting passes to the State Supreme Court, which may appoint “Special Masters.” The federal Voting Rights Act of 1965 allows affected voters to sue if the voting power of racial and ethnic minorities is diluted when lines drawn with discriminatory intent and effect.

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of the Game

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of Thumb There is often a trade-off between making incumbents safe and getting more seats for the party in power. A plan that makes incumbents safe (less responsive ) packs lots of their supporters together in a district. A plan that helps a party win more seats than it has voters (more biased ) needs to spread around just enough supporters.

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of Thumb There is sometimes a trade-off between increasing minority voting power and helping Democrats. Latino and African-American voters tend to live in areas heavily populated by Democrats. A district that is 55% African-American is likely to be 85% Democratic, leaving fewer voters to spread around.

Can We Judge Redistricting Plans? J. Morgan Kousser argues that plans should be judged by their predicted partisan effects, not by the process by which they are created. Since political dynamics change after a plan is written (Watergate, Gingrich revolution), statistics provide us with the best way to judge plans.

Can We Judge Redistricting Plans? Kousser’s method uses a regression to see how increasing Republican registration by 1% will affect the vote for a Republican candidate. Predicts about 98% of races. Allows us to compare how many seats each party is expected to win at the time a plan is drawn.

Discussion Questions What would California politics look like without any parties? Can we look for clues by studying local, non-partisan politics? Which goals are most important in a redistricting system? Competition Partisan proportionality Minority voting rights Compactness and continguity