Quah (1996): Emerging Twin Peaks. Forecasting the future of the WDI (by country) Quah’s Methology: Based on historical experience  pp=probability of.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Advertisements

PAST HABITS: USED TO Use used to to talk about past habits, situations or states: We used to go out every night (habit) We used to live in the city (situation)

What is the sum of the following infinite series 1+x+x2+x3+…xn… where 0

The impact of media access on democracy Matt Bodnar & Flemming Schneider Rhode.

T h e G a s L a w s. T H E G A S L A W S z B o y l e ‘ s L a w z D a l t o n ‘ s L a w z C h a r l e s ‘ L a w z T h e C o m b i n e d G a s L a w z B.

“How Progressive is the U.S. Federal Tax System? A Historical and International Perspective” Thomas Piketty- Economics Professor, Paris Emmanuel Saez-

11.4 – Infinite Geometric Series. Sum of an Infinite Geometric Series.

Empirical Applications of Neoclassical Growth Models

SURINAME: THE INSTITUTIONS THAT MATTER FOR DIVERSIFICATION Francisco G. Carneiro.

Xavier Sala-i-Martin Columbia University

Stat 301- Day 32 More on two-sample t- procedures.

Performance of World Economies

Facts About Growth Slide 1 Data on growth and development Fact #3: Growth rates are not necessarily constant over time. Fact #3: Growth rates are not necessarily.

The Question The Answer P = 94 %. Practical Uses of   To infer  from S x To compare a sample to an assumed population To establish a rejection criterion.

OMS 201 Review. Range The range of a data set is the difference between the largest and smallest data values. It is the simplest measure of dispersion.

To work or not to work? Do people prefer leisure to work? Different preferences around the world. Dave Van Calster & Jonas Van Riel.

Performance of World Economies Gavin Cameron Monday 25 July 2005 Oxford University Business Economics Programme.

Ilian Mihov Professor of Economics Novartis Chaired Professor of Management and the Environment Tel Aviv December 2009 New Alignments in the Global Economic.

Heating water experiment By: Brianna, Jordan, Jordan, and Tyler.

John Van Dyke International Market Information Development.

Immigration policy in canada and europe with special focus on future of the european integration felipe ferreira - nov 22nd 2013 university of lethbridge.

Notes Over 11.4 Infinite Geometric Sequences

By Ethan lockyer If I was a world leader... If I was a world leader I would spend more money on schools for education. If I was a world leader I would.

By: Al-Muthanna Class: 6B Number of children under 5 dying because of HIV/ADIS in Trinidad and Tobago (%)

OECD/World Bank Database On Budget Practices and Procedures 2006 Teresa Curristine, Budgeting and Public Expenditure Division, Public Governance Directorate,

Convergence Prospects for CEE Countries M. Sc. Dissertation Paper ACADEMY OF ECONMIC STUDIES DOCTORAL SCHOOL OF FINANCE AND BANKING Mihaescu Flaviu Coordinator:

Is the Developing World Catching Up? Global Convergence and National Rising Dispersion Maurizio Bussolo, Rafael E. De Hoyos, and Denis Medvedev The World.

It is very dangerous for our population when children don’t get educated. More girls than boys in the world are not in school. If girls are not educated,

Long Term Oil Prices: Goldman Sachs vs. OPEC PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND ERIKA SOLEM.

Digital citizenship By: Cody Quinn.

I. Work in pairs: 1. Do you like Carnival? Why (not)? 2. What about the rest of your family? 3. In your opinion, where is the best Carnival in Brazil?

Peter Edward and Andy Sumner

Poverty & Causes of Poverty To describe the life of poor vs. rich To explain the causes of poverty To create an example of a poverty cycle.

Theoretical Probability Key words: knowing equally likely outcomes.

Trinidad and Tobago Researched via: Student Name: Ashley Johnson Date: April 19,2010.

MODEL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES AND OUTBREAKS IN VIETNAM MILITARY ( ) Sr.Col. Le Ngoc Anh, MD. PhD. Vietnam Military Medical Department.

Gross Domestic Product GDP is the total value of all the goods and services produced in that country in one year Tells how rich or poor a country is;

WHITNEY_ROWANS_ _ Consists of two main islands, Trinidad, and Tobago. Gained its independence from the United Kingdom in 1962 Is the birthplace.

Population by Eleanor Joyce City of Salem Schools.

UNIT 2: THE GILDED AGE AND THE PROGRESSIVE ERA. Unit Overview  5 weeks – now through 10/30  Big questions:  How did America become a wealthy, modern.

Population10/23 Bellringer: Analyze the Cartogram below – what do you see (5 observations)? What does this map mean?

MISS UNIVERS /03/20161RIQUET Miss Australia 21/03/20162RIQUET

Power Series Chapter 12.8,12.9. Basic Definitions: A power series looks like: All the techniques for testing convergence apply but now we are interesting.

ПЕЧЕНЬ 9. Закладка печени в период эмбрионального развития.

Step # 5: Conclusion Step # 4: Collect & Analyze Data Step # 3: Experiment Step # 2: Hypothesis Step # 1: Problem Scientific Method.

Introduction Intro Problem Materials Hypothesis Procedure Results

by Eleanor Joyce City of Salem Schools

Economic growth make us happy?

Trinidad and Tobago Researched via:

History of Caribbean Integration

Mass of the Penny Problem: To examine any variations in the mass of a penny over time. Procedure: Sort pennies by year of minting and measure the mass.

Communism vs. Democracy (part of Chapter 27 Notes)

AF3 - Read and plot locations using co-ordinates.

Production Planning (P/P) Process Flow

GROUP Closure Associativity Identity

Accessing Water.

Bernice Mahabier, Coordinator Suriname Aton Academy

The Role and Relationship of Scientific and Official Information

#. shop now P1080P · /' '

Image showing the destruction of Hurricane Katrina

Aid to the South Chapter 67.

GENETIC EQUILIBRIUM I Types of Selection

OIL RICH OR ECONOMICALLY POOR: THE PUZZLE OF THE RESOURCE CURSE

*** Series PRS Version 1, ***

Research Paper Overview.

იტალიის რესპუბლიკის აგრარული განვითარება

Ch Community Ecology pp

Population projections Agenda: 6.2; Document 13

Town & Country.

Presentation transcript:

Quah (1996): Emerging Twin Peaks

Forecasting the future of the WDI (by country) Quah’s Methology: Based on historical experience  pp=probability of poor in 1960 staying poor in 2000  pr=probability of poor becoming rich  rp=probability of rich becoming poor  rr=probability of rich staying rich

Forecasting the future of the WDI (by country) N poor (2040)=N poor (2000)*  pp+ N rich (2000)*  rp N rich (2040)=N poor (2000)*  pr+ N rich (2000)*  rr Repeat the procedure infinite many times to get the ergodic (steady-state) distribution Conclusion: depends on Venezuela and Trinidad- Tobago