He Loves Me, He Loves Me Not A Forecast of U.S. Jewelry Sales Alex Gates Ling-Ching Hsu Shih-Hao Lee Hui Liang Mateusz Tracz Grant Volk June 1, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

He Loves Me, He Loves Me Not A Forecast of U.S. Jewelry Sales Alex Gates Ling-Ching Hsu Shih-Hao Lee Hui Liang Mateusz Tracz Grant Volk June 1, 2010

Purpose Examine trends in jewelry sales in the United States Create a model capable of forecasting future U.S. jewelry sales Forecast U.S. jewelry sales for one year

Data Data obtained from U.S. Census Bureau website ( Data is monthly U.S. Jewelry Sales from January, 1992 through March, 2010

Jewelry Sales Data (JSALES)

JSALES Correlogram

Pre-Whitened JSALES

SDLNJSALES

SDLNJSALES – Unit Root Test

SDLNJSALES AR(1)

SDLNJSALES ARMA(1,1)

SDLNJSALES – Final ARIMA Model: AR(1) MA(1) MA(12) MA(14) MA(16)

SDLNJSALES - Correlogram

SDLNJSALES Serial Correlation Test

SDLNJSALES Correlogram of Residuals Squared and ARCH Test

SDLNJSALES - ARCH/GARCH

Actual, Fitted, Residual

Histogram of Residuals Non-normal, but single-peaked

Correlograms Standardized ResidualsResiduals Squared

ARCH Test for Heteroskedasticity

Conclusion: Accept the model!

Forecasting SDLNJSALES for Previous 12 Months

Forecasting SDLNJSALES for Next 12 Months

Recolored Forecast of JSALES

Detailed Graph

JSALES Data and Forecast Actual values of U.S. Jewelry Sales from January, 2009 through March, 2010 Forecasted values from April, 2010 through March, 2011

Final Conclusions Forecasted recovery of Jewelry Sales for 2010 holiday season 10.35% increase predicted for December 2010 sales over 2009 levels Upper bound of 95% confidence level predicts that, if everything goes very well, sales could be their highest since 1992

Final Conclusions