Tsunami Hazards Three-dimensional Modeling of Tsunami Generation and Near-field Characteristics and Vulnerability of Honolulu Critical Infrastructure to.

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Presentation transcript:

Tsunami Hazards Three-dimensional Modeling of Tsunami Generation and Near-field Characteristics and Vulnerability of Honolulu Critical Infrastructure to Tsunamis Kwok Fai Cheung Ocean and Resources Engineering University of Hawaii January 30, 2008

Three-dimensional Modeling Hawaii State Civil Defense and National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Inundation maps based on 100 years of Pacific Rim tsunamis - Development of tsunami evacuation maps with county civil defense - Textbook examples of 2D nonlinear shallow-water models Inundation maps for locally generated tsunamis from Big Island - Development of in-house emergency response plans 3D modeling of Tsunami Generation and Near-field Characteristics (2+1)D approach with approximate solutions in the vertical direction Wave dispersion, bore approximation of breaking waves, and energy transfer from seafloor deformation

Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure to Tsunamis Tsunami Inundation Maps in the Five Pacific Coastal State Based on historical or paleo-tsunamis or “credible worse-case” scenarios Not suitable for coastal development planning or vulnerability study FEMA National Flood Insurance Program $3 Billion FIRM modernization project (tsunami is not considered) Probabilistic approach to produce 100, 200, and 500-year flood limits Probabilistic Approach Mapping of earthquake probability to flood probability through a systematic sampling approach Calibration with historical runup records (Tentative Results)Results

Outreach Steering Committee, National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Implementation of the Inverse Algorithm for Tsunami Forecast NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Chilean Navy Servicio Hidrográfico y Oceanográfico National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China Community Outreach Presentations in 2007 State Building Code Committee and Department of Accounting and General Services State Risk Management Office, UH Office of Risk Management, Aon Risk Services, Inc., Hawaii UNESCO ITIC Delegations (4 times) Department of Land and Natural Resources UH Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance Program (simulcast at Bangkok, Tokyo, Okinawa, American Samoa) Structural Engineer Association of Hawaii Luncheon Advisory UH Office of the VP for Research, PacRBL Project

Publications Yamazaki, Y., Kowalik, Z., and Cheung, K.F. Depth-integrated dispersive model for wave breaking and runup. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, in preparation. Yamazaki, Y., Wei, Y., Cheung, K.F., and Curtis, G.D. (2006). Forecast of tsunamis generated at the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka source region. Natural Hazards, 38(3), (UNIHI-SEAGRANT-JC ). Wei, Y., Mao, X.Z., and Cheung, K.F. (2006). Well-balanced finite volume model for long-wave runup. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 132(2), (UNIHI-SEAGRANT- JC-05-03). Wei, Y., Cheung, K.F., Curtis, G.D., and McCreery, C.S. (2003). Inverse algorithm for tsunami forecasts. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 129(2), (UNIHI-SEAGRANT-JC ). Smith, D.A. and Cheung, K.F. (2005). Transport rate of calcareous sand in uni-directional flow. Sedimentology, 52(5), (UNIHI-SEAGRANT-JC-03-06). Smith, D.A. and Cheung, K.F. (2004). Initiation of motion of calcareous sand. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 130(5), (UNIHI-SEAGRANT-JC-00-31). Smith, D.A. and Cheung, K.F. (2003). Settling characteristics of calcareous sand. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 129(6), (UNIHI-SEAGRANT-JC-02-10). Smith, D.A. and Cheung, K.F. (2002). Empirical relationships for grain size parameters of calcareous sand on Oahu, Hawaii. Journal of Coastal Research, 18(1), (UNIHI-SEAGRANT-JC-00-06). Chandrasekera, C.N. and Cheung, K.F. (2001). Linear refraction-diffraction model for steep bathymetry. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 127(3), (UNIHI-SEAGRANT- JC-00-02). Chandrasekera, C.N. and Cheung, K.F. (1997). Extended linear refraction-diffraction model. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 123(5), (UNIHI-SEAGRANT-JC-97-19).