Presentation to the Workshop Climate Change and Great Lakes Water Levels March 30, 2001 Chicago, Illinois Gerald E. Galloway, Jr., P.E., Ph.D. International Joint Commission United States and Canada Washington, DC Regulating Great Lakes Water Levels and Water Use

Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909 Provided Principles and Mechanisms to Prevent and Resolve Disputes Concerning Water Quantity and Water Quality and Other Environmental Issues Along the U.S.-Canada Boundary Established the International Joint Commission (IJC) Required IJC Approval of Actions Causing Changes in Levels and Flows

The International Joint Commission Principles of Operation Operation Without Instructions from Governments Balanced Membership: –Three Commissioners From Each Country –Equality on IJC Boards and Working Groups Service in Personal and Professional Capacity Good Science - Joint Fact-Finding Full Public Involvement

Lake Levels Human Control Over Great Lakes Levels is Minor in Comparison to Nature’s Ability to Change Levels Humans Impact Level by: –Regulating Flows –Modifying Channels –Removing or Adding Waters

Lake Michigan-Huron Range of Levels Jan-60Jan-61Jan-62Jan-63 Jan-64 Jan-65Jan-66Jan-67Jan-68Jan-69Jan-70Jan-71Jan-72 Jan-73 Jan-74Jan-75Jan-76Jan-77Jan-78Jan-79Jan-80Jan-81Jan-82Jan-83Jan-84Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87Jan-88Jan-89Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99 Year/Month Elev. IGLD1985 (Feet) RECORD LOW Mar 1964 RECORD HIGH Oct 1986

Order of Use Precedence Domestic and Sanitary Navigation Hydropower Riparians

Lake Superior Systemic Regulation (balancing) Upper & Lower Limits on Lake Superior Maximum and Minimum flow limits Winter Operations Rapids Requirements

Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence UPSTREAM CONDITIONS LOCAL CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM CONDITIONS CRITERIA RULES OF PLAN CRITERIA RULES OF PLAN DO NOT EMPTY LAKE DO NOT OVERFILL LAKE DO NOT EXCEED RIVER CAPACITY MAINTAIN MINIMUM LEVELS MAKE ROOM FOR SPRING RAINS FLOW DOWN ST. LAWRENCE RIVER

OPTIONS Further Regulation –Three Lake –Limited Regulation of Lake Erie Diversions Management Emergency Preparedness Land Use / Shoreline Zoning Education Shoreline Protection Dredging

IJC Recommendations No Additional Regulation No Diversion Management Improve Emergency Preparedness Initiate Comprehensive Shoreline Management Review Current Regulation Improve Education Consider Climate Change Address Technical Issues (Forecasting, Mapping, Analytical Techniques)

Order of Use Precedence Domestic and Sanitary Navigation Hydropower Riparians Environment Recreational Boaters Explicit New

The Environment Environment Requires Extremes in Levels Changes in Mean Levels Modify Existing Habitat or Create New Habitat Lower Levels May Disturb Sediments

CLIMATE CHANGE!

Lake Ontario -St. Lawrence River Regulation Review $20 Million (US), Five-Year Study of Criteria Governing Regulation Address Competing Needs of: –Navigation –Hydropower –Riparians –Domestic Users –Environment –Boaters Address Climate Change Impacts

Current Water Use Removals - –Bottled water cfs –Ballast water - 0.7cfs –Chicago Diversion- 3250cfs –Other (net) - 0 Consumptive Use cfs Inflow –Long Lac/Ogoki cfs –Bottled Water cfs Outflow (St. Lawrence) 244,000 cfs

“The Governments are concerned that current management principles and conservation measures may be inadequate to ensure the future sustainable use of our shared waters.” Reference to the IJC on the Consumption, Diversion and Removal of Water. February 10, The Concern

IJC Conclusions There is never a ‘surplus’ of water in the Great Lakes system. Because there is uncertainty about the availability of Great Lakes water in the future caution should be used in managing water to protect the resource for the future

Water Uses Reference Recommended –Principles to Govern Removals and Consumptive Uses –Development of Standards by States and Provinces –Attention to Water Management Issues Climate Change

Current Actions Governors and Premiers Develop Standards for Removals and Consumptive Uses Congress- Parliament Affirm IJC Review Climate Change?

Lake Levels Human Control Over Great Lakes Levels is Minor in Comparison to Nature’s Ability to Change Levels Humans Impact Level by: –Regulating Flows –Modifying Channels –Removing or Adding Waters

Climate Change and Levels Climate Change May Severely Stress Current Regulatory Regimes Uncertainty Demands Caution and Intense Study IJC is : –Studying St Lawrence –Planning for Superior (Michigan and Huron)

To protect the integrity of the ecosystem of the Great Lakes basin, permit no proposals for major new or increased CONSUMPTIVE USE to proceed unless: Full consideration of cumulative impacts Effective conservation in requesting area Based on sound planning All returns meet quality objectives of GLWQA IJC Recommendations

Permit no REMOVALS unless proponent can demonstrate that the removal would not endanger the integrity of the ecosystem of the Great Lakes Basin…and that: No practical alternatives Full consideration of cumulative impacts Effective conservation in recipient area Based on sound planning No net loss in process but in no case greater than a 5% loss IJC Recommendations

Conclusions - Future Demand There are no active proposals for major diversions There remains little reason to believe such proposals will be economically, socially or environmentally feasible in the foreseeable future Alternatives Exist to Great Lakes Water Use - Desalination; Water Rights Transfers; Conservation Potential exists for requests from Near-basin Communities