Copyright 2003 Joseph Greene All Rights Reserved 1 MFGT 124 Solid Design in Manufacturing Kepner-Tregoe Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Potential Problem Analysis Professor Joe Greene CSU, CHICO References: H. Scott Fogler and Steven E. LeBlanc, Strategies for Creative Problem Solving, The University of Michigan, Englewood Cliffs, N.J. PTR Prentice Hall, 1995 C. C. Kepner and B. B. Tregoe, The New Rational Manager, Princeton Research Press, Princeton, NJ, 1976 MFGT 124

Copyright 2003 Joseph Greene All Rights Reserved 2 Chap 3: Problem Solving Topics –Introduction –Situation Analysis –Problem Analysis –Decision Analysis –Potential Problem Analysis

Copyright 2003 Joseph Greene All Rights Reserved 3 Introduction Kepner-Tregoe –Once real problem is defined, then there are a number of possible solutions. –Time is needed to make a decision. Decide which problem to work on first. Choose the best alternative. Decide how to successfully implement the solution. –Organized approach to making decision. KT New Rational Manager Situation Analysis (Where are we?) Problem AnalysisDecision Analysis Potential Problem Analysis PastPresentPotential What is the fault? How to correct the fault? How to prevent future faults?

Copyright 2003 Joseph Greene All Rights Reserved 4 Situation Analysis In many cases many problems arise at the same time. –Sometimes they are interconnected and other times they are totally unrelated. –Need to prioritize the problems. Timing Trend Impact- Cost, environment, legal Criteria –Timing How urgent is the problem? Is there a deadline? What are consequences if nothing is done? –Priority - High, Moderate, Low –Trend What is potential for problem growth? Is this a beginning of a pattern that could make matters much worse? –Priority - High, Moderate, Low –Impact How serious is the problem on other parts of the organization, e.g., people, equipment, products, policies? –Priority - High, Moderate, Low

Copyright 2003 Joseph Greene All Rights Reserved 5 Situation Analysis Example, First Day Blues…. Pg 90 –Observations Boxes are an eyesore and awkward to step around, –It it not necessary now; Timing (L) –It will not get worse; Trend (L) –It won’t cause any problems if they are left in boxes for now; Impact (L) 20 new desks are an immediate problem, will get worse if ignored, and is greatly affecting the staff effectiveness. (H, H, H). Decision Analysis is needed Employee moral is important and needs to be addressed soon before it gets worse and causes other sloppy mistakes. Problem analysis is needed to figure out why moral is so low. Utility bills need to be paid soon so that utilities won’t be cutoff. The finances need to be put in order so that future problems are avoided. Problem analysis is needed to figure out what is causing the money problems. Scratches on desk are annoying but can wait. Need to figure what process failure caused the desks to be scratched with Potential Problem Analysis.

Copyright 2003 Joseph Greene All Rights Reserved 6 Situation Analysis Pareto Analysis and Diagram –Pareto Principle: 80% of trouble come from 20% of the problems –Used to prioritize all problems and decide which to attack first. –Highlights which problems are important and which are trivial. –Method List problems and the associated degree of the problem; quality problems, costs, lost time. Using a bar chart the problems with the highest degree of problems are listed on the left and those with least amount of problems are on the right. Example, Toasty O’s quality problems in (Pg 91) –Number of out of spec boxes.Most important is No Prize in Box. –Amount of lost revenue from quality problem. Most important is Stale cereal.

Copyright 2003 Joseph Greene All Rights Reserved 7 KT Problem Analysis Experienced problem solvers ask the right questions. –KT problem analysis helps you ask the right questions. What is the problem and –what is not the problem? Where did the problem occur? –Where is everything OK? When did the problem first occur? –When was everything OK? What is the magnitude (extent) of the problem? Who was involved? –Who was not involved? Why is it important? –Why is it not important? –Table 5-1 –Example, Fear of Flying Pg 95 plus handout.

Copyright 2003 Joseph Greene All Rights Reserved 8 KT Decision Analysis How to choose the best solution from a number of alternatives. –KT decision analysis is a logical algorithm to chose between different alternatives.. Separates desires into two categories. These items are how the decision will be evaluated. –Musts- essential things that must occur. »Have Go- No Go options for alternatives that do not meet Musts –Wants- necessary things that would make it better. Weight scale is given for each evaluation item. Add up the weighted points to determine the best solution. –Weighting scheme can be used for negative consequences too. –Example, Finding a job Pg 102 plus handout. –Cautions Subjective method Be careful not to bias weighting for a predetermined alternative or blackball another one.

Copyright 2003 Joseph Greene All Rights Reserved 9 KT Potential Problem Analysis After making decision, need to ensure its future success. –Look into the future. See what could go wrong. Make plans to avoid these pitfalls. KT Potential Problem Analysis –Decreases possibility of disastrous outcome. Lists –Potential problems –Possible causes –Preventative actions –Contingent Action Example Ragin Cajun Chicken- Pg 105- Handout