Keynesian Circular-Flow Analysis (Labor-Based Macroeconomics) The Inherent Instability of a Wholly Private Economy (according to John Maynard Keynes) Roger W. Garrison 2006

Keynes’s vision of the economy suggests a circular-flow framework — in which earning and spending are brought into balance by changes in the level of employment. The Keynesian Vision Graphically, the circular flow appears as the Keynesian cross, the cross’s intersection identifying the particular state of the economy in which income and expenditures are in balance. The Income-Expenditure Framework

BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS WORKERS FACTOR OWNERS CONSUMERS LABOR AND OTHER FACTOR SERVICES INCOME THE CIRCULAR-FLOW FRAMEWORK

BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS WORKERS FACTOR OWNERS CONSUMERS LABOR AND OTHER FACTOR SERVICES INCOME GOODS AND SERVICES EXPENDITURES Let the speed of rotation indicate the strength (fast) or weakness (slow) of the economy.

BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS WORKERS FACTOR OWNERS CONSUMERS INCOME EXPENDITURES

BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS WORKERS FACTOR OWNERS CONSUMERS INCOME EXPENDITURES In Keynesian equilibrium, INCOME equals EXPENDITURES. Y = E Y = C + I + G

BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS WORKERS FACTOR OWNERS CONSUMERS INCOME EXPENDITURES In Keynesian equilibrium, INCOME equals EXPENDITURES. Y = E For a wholly private economy, Y = C + I

45 o E = Y EXPENDITURES INCOME The circular character of the flow suggests an equality of left-half flow and right-half flow---as represented by a forty-five degree line passing through the origin. EXPENDITURES, which constitute the left half of the circular flow, is represented on the vertical axis. INCOME, which constitutes the right half of the circular flow, is represented on the horizontal axis.

The economy is in a Keynesian equilibrium somewhere along the 45 o line — the line itself identifying all possible income-expenditure equilibrium points. As taught at all levels, the consumption function is an essential component of the Keynesian framework. The presumed stability of this function underlies Keynesian thinking. EXPENDITURES INCOME CONSUMPTION INVESTMENT INCOME C = a + bY C + I 45 o a b 1 Consumption and Investment (as well as Government Spending) are portrayed as additive components of total spending. The three components are distinguished largely in terms of their stability characteristics: stable (C ), unstable (I), and stabilizing (G). A wholly private macroeconomy achieves an income-expenditure equilibrium when Y = C + I. Note that income itself (rather than prices, wages, or the interest rate) is the equilibrating variable. Investment depends neither on (current) income nor on the rate of interest. It depends only on profit expectations, which themselves are not well-anchored in economic reality. Keynes would say the investors are moved by the “animal spirits.”

EXPENDITURES INCOME C = a + bY C + I Suppose that a = 120 and b = In equilibrium, Y = E So, Y = C + I Y = a + bY + I Y = Y Y – 0.60Y = Y = 360 Y = 900 b a C = Y And suppose we know that investors are spending 240 on investment goods. I = 240 Can we calculate the equilibrium level of income that corresponds to these parameters? 1 Y eq = 900 a = 120 b = 0.60

Though not emphasized by Keynes, full employment implies that the economy is operating on its production possibility frontier, the PPF itself being defined in terms of sustainable output levels of consumption and investment goods. Y fe According to Keynes, it is only by “accident or design” that the economy is actually preforming at its full- employment potential. We assume here that, initially, full employment conditions prevail — if only by accident. EXPENDITURES INCOME C = a + bY N W S D C + I INVESTMENT CONSUMPTION In Keynesian macroeconomics, full employment implies that the labor market clears at the going wage rate, the going wage itself having emerged during a period in which the economy was experiencing no macroeconomic problems. LABOR INCOME Labor income (Y = WN) is fully representative of total income, such that changes in labor income stand in direct proportion to changes in total income.

EXPENDITURES C = a + bY C + I INCOME Y fe

LABOR INPUT REAL WAGE RATE S D LABOR INPUT OUTPUT REAL INCOME C + I

EXPENDITURES C = a + bY C + I INCOME Y fe

E < Y EXPENDITURES INCOME N W S D ΔYΔY EXCESS INVENTORIES ΔIΔI C + I C = a + bY ΔIΔI ΔY = 1 (1 – b) According to Keynes, a collapse of investment activity (the collapse being attributed to a waning of “animal spirits”) is the primary cause economic downturns. In response to reduced investment and hence reduced employment opportunities, the economy spirals downward into recession and possibly into deep depression. Note that the going wage keeps going — even after the market conditions that gave rise to it are gone. The simple investment- spending multiplier, 1/(1-b), quantifies the extend of the downward spiraling. Y fe E = Y INCOME CONSUMPTION INVESTMENT 900

ΔYΔY ΔY = 1 (1 – 0.6) ΔYΔY EXPENDITURES INCOME N S D W C = a + bY C + I In the Keynesian construction, prices and the wage rate are sticky downward. But note that they’re not stuck too high. They’re stuck just right. The going wage rate will clear the labor market once again — as soon as spending and hence labor demand recover to their full-employment levels. A further loss of confidence on the part of the business community will send the economy even further from its full- employment potential. ΔIΔIΔY = 1 (1 – b) ΔI = 100 (100) = ΔY = 1 (1 – 0.6) (100) = 250 ΔI =

900 Recovery may be self-initiating. Waning animal spirits may become waxing animal spirits. In due time, a pressing need to maintain or replace depreciating capital may account for the lower turning point of a bust-and-recovery sequence. (Keynes, of course, preferred not to wait it out. He advocated make-work projects, deficit spending, and monetary stimulation to get the economy turned around.) EXPENDITURES INCOME C = a + bY C + I N S D W Y fe

Recovery may continue as further investment activity drives labor-demand back to its full-employment level... EXPENDITURES INCOME C + I C = a + bY N S D W

but there is nothing about “animal spirits” that will bring the recovery process to an end at full employment. Over-optimism may push the economy beyond its full- employment level. EXPENDITURES INCOME C + I C = a + bY N S D W From full-employment onward, there is upward pressure on both prices and wage rates. And since prices and wage rates are not sticky upwards, the economy experiences a spiraling inflation. The equilibrium points in the labor market traced out during the recovery and inflationary spiral constitute the so-called L-shaped supply curve. Recovery may continue as further investment activity drives labor-demand back to its full-employment level... Y fe

EXPENDITURES C = a + bY C + I INCOME Y fe Y = C + I C = C Y – C = I S = I Even in Keynesian equilibrium, saving equals investment. But it’s not the interest rate that does the equilibrating. Rather, it’s income that adjusts (spirals up or spirals down) until the saving- investment equality is established.

BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS WORKERS FACTOR OWNERS CONSUMERS INCOME EXPENDITURES Dealing with the inherent instability of the economy, according to Keynes, requires policy activism. Well-gauged and well-timed fiscal policy (changes in government spending and the level of taxation) can counter the recessionary and inflationary forces that are deeply rooted in capitalism.

Keynesian Circular-Flow Analysis (Labor-Based Macroeconomics) The Inherent Instability of a Wholly Private Economy (according to John Maynard Keynes) Roger W. Garrison 2006