Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts for Belgium using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations (QUEST-B) Nicole van Lipzig a, Tim Böhme a, Kwinten van Weverberg a, Laurent Delobbe b a Physical and regional geography group, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium b Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI) Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008

Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary QUEST vs. QUEST-B:  Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts with a mesoscale model (COSMO) Focus: Germany ↔ Belgium  Commun goal: Identification of processes responsible for deficiencies in quantitative precipitation forecast QUEST, QUEST-B  Using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations: Radar data: QUEST, QUEST-B Satellite data: QUEST, QUEST-B Microwave data: QUEST Ceilometer data: QUEST GPS data: QUEST, QUEST-B Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008

Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) region COPS Region Summer 2007 General Observation Period (GOP) Entire year 2007 QUEST-Belgien Area QUEST Belgien - Region of interest Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

Phase I: Model evaluation  Comparison to observations and to output of other models Phase II: Compilation of precipitation distribution for two contrasting summer seasons  Improve understanding of causes for these differences in precipitation characteristics  Input for soil erosion models and crop models input for soil erosion models and crop models Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

 C-band Doppler Radar (f = 5.6 GHz, λ = 5.4 cm) - Scans at 10 elevation angles each 15 minutes (0.5 – 17.5 ° ) - Horizontal resolution is 500 m in range and 1 ° in azimuth European network - Actual 2 radars in Belgium  Satellite data (MSG, MODIS, CLOUDSAT)  GPS data  Synoptical weather stations Comparison to observations Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

Kick-Off-Treffen PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

Radar of Wideumont (RMI, Ardennes) C-band Doppler Radar Gematronik Tower : 46 m Antenna height : 592 m Antenna diameter : 4.2 m Measurements range: 240 km for reflectivity 120 km for velocity Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

Radar of Zaventem (BELGOCONTROL, Brussels) C-band Doppler Radar Radtec / Sigmet Antenna diameter : 4.2 m Measurements range: 240 km for reflectivity 120 km for velocity Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

~ 250 rain gauge stations in Belgium: Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

Atmospheric models COSMO-DE model (LMK) Δx = 2.8 km Comparison to (case studies): ALARO used for operational weather forecasting in Belgium  basing on French AROME modeling system Δx = 7 km resp. Δx = 4 km ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) Δx = 3 km Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

Stratiform precipitation case 23/11/2006 Dynamically driven convective case 01/10/2006 Thermodynamically driven convective case 28/07/2006 Case studies: (but also long term evaluation!) Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

Compilation of precipitation characteristics for two contrasting summer seasons  Precipitation patterns / distribution in Belgium `  Interdisciplinary exchange: Example: - Input for soil erosion models Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

Soil erosion in Flanders (Belgium) (Verstraeten et al., 2003) Orography of Belgium Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

Amount of precipitation is important for soil erosion P (mm) per rain event Rain erosivity for a rain event Time series for the Belgian station Ukkel Verstraeten and Poesen, 2006 Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

Summary: Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecast for Belgium using COSMO model  Comparison of COSMO model results with results of two other atmospheric modeling systems (ALADIN, ARPS) in case studies  Long-term evaluation (observations) in 2 contrasting summer seasons Characteristics of precipition in Belgium Interaction between different disciplines (meteorology, geography, agriculture) with respect to atmospheric branch of hydrological cycle Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008 Introduction Phase I Phase II Summary

Vielen Dank !! Kick-Off meeting PQP – Bonn – 10 / 11 April 2008