Sub-Saharan Africa Class 1

Approximately 600 million people

South Africa Namibia Gabon Botswana

Annual per capita GNP Growth rates, Botswana Lesotho

Economic Growth by Major Region, (percent per year)

Percent children (under 5) malnourished,

Agricultural decline F Food security problem F Drought conditions of early 1970s within Sahel demonstrated: –no reserve productive capacity –no financial capacity to import significant food F Food security problem actually began in 1960s

F Decline of export-oriented agriculture F Significance –demonstrates declines in per capita food production are not just due to substitution of export-oriented crops –most countries are seriously dependent on these commodities for export earnings

Marginalization in world trade F % of global exports F % of global exports F (implied annual trade loss of $65 billion in 1990)

Ng and Yeats Open economies work better... F Close look at export trends between and to OECD countries (3 year averages) F to overcome trade data problems for African countries F OECD countries account for approx. 82% of all African exports

Central questions F What happened to demand for the traditional exports of the region over time? F What happened to the competitive position of the region as exporters of these products over time? F How well was the region able to diversify its exports over time?

Impact of demand and competition on Sub- Saharan African and other regions’ exports, to

Export diversification by region, and

Alternative Perspectives on Poor Economic Performance F Demographic factors F Environmental factors F External factors--relationships with developed economies F internal policy factors

1. Demographic Factors F Rapid population growth –2.6 percent per year –doubling time of 27 years F attributable to declining mortality and continued high fertility (delayed demographic transition) –TFRs from 4.1 to 7.4 well above replacement levels

Reasons for high fertility F Low level of contraceptive use F high level of “wanted” fertility rates

Factors underlying high “wanted” fertility rates F Source of old age insurance F important source of labor in rural settings F various social structures promote high fertility –children are often raised in other households which reduces costs of raising –communal-based land tenure systems with land distributed according to family “need” –polygyny with each wife and her children forming a discrete economic unit

Economic consequences of rapid population growth F Age structure skewed toward young ages –working age population is only half of total population compared to 60-70% elsewhere F reduces labor force participation, productivity and savings F high burden of providing basic education –data suggest primary school enrollment rates fell from 1980 to 1993

F Excessive pressure on agricultural resource base leading to degradation of the resource base

2. Environmental Factors F Good source: –Bloom and Sachs Geography, demography and economic growth in Africa, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2:

1. Tropical environment and agricultural productivity F Unfavorable soil-water balance (precipitation - potential evapotranspiration) creates problems of aridity and drought in various regions F lack of variation in day-length and lack of dry season create induction of flowering problem for many temperate-zone species in humid tropics

F Basic biological factors limit agricultural yields of other species –concept of net photosynthesis (energy net of the energy plant uses to stay alive) –where temperatures remain very high at night losses of net photosynthetic potential are especially high

F Problem of tropical soils –High precipitation leaches nutrients –makes permanent agriculture difficult F veterinary disease vectors –lack of cold weather barriers to vector reproduction and survival F plant pests --e.g. locusts F crop damage due to massive rodent populations

2. Tropical environment and infectious disease F Very high burdens of infectious and parasitic diseases –account for 42.5% of lost Disability- Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) –Compare u India--28.9% u Western Europe--2.8%

Traditional problem--Malaria F Caused by the protozoan plasmodium transmitted by anopheles mosquito F disease ecology depends on –density of mosquitoes relative to humans –mosquito longevity relative to life cycle of plasmodium F key variable: latency period of plasmodium in mosquito relative to life span of mosquito

Economic costs of malaria F Medical care costs for the individual-- medicines, treatment fees, transportation, bednets, insecticides etc. F public health expenditures F loss of productivity due to illness and care of the sick F impacts on long-term cognitive performance F constraints on technical diffusion, foreign investment and population exchange (including tourism) in endemic malarial regions

Strategy to avoid malaria? F Settlement and development in tropical highland areas F Problem --generally distant from coastline –result is high transportation costs u poor transport systems

Contemporary late 20th C problem--HIV/AIDS