Traps in the Decision Making Process ******* Thinking Styles Recognizing and Countering Heuristic Traps Harold V. Langlois

Examining Flawed Decision Making  Understanding thought processes  Exploring barriers blocking translation of thoughts to effective behavior  Recognizing unconscious routines for coping with complexity (Heuristics)  Balancing the perspectives of past, present and future behaviors

The Framing Trap - Review  Creating an argument that is self- fulfilling or guarantees a desired outcome—can block development of alternatives  Strategy: Reframing the problem Considering other outcomes Considering other outcomes Evaluating different framing options Evaluating different framing options

Anchoring Trap  Disproportionate weight to initial information Estimates of risk or benefit Estimates of risk or benefit Suitability of a specific option Suitability of a specific option  Strategy: Uncover these predispositions Articulate goals and expectations Articulate goals and expectations Unfreeze old connects that block reasessment Unfreeze old connects that block reasessment Use past connections to enhance networking Use past connections to enhance networking Recognize differences between past conditions and present realities Recognize differences between past conditions and present realities Be aware of one’s discomfort with change Be aware of one’s discomfort with change

The Status Quo Trap  Bias toward perpetuating the here and now  Protective attitude about present assumptions Identify status quo Identify status quo Determine if defensiveness is based on a lack of knowledge, or an emotional commitment (e.g., “originally my idea”) Determine if defensiveness is based on a lack of knowledge, or an emotional commitment (e.g., “originally my idea”) Fear of the unknown if change occurs Fear of the unknown if change occurs

The Status Quo Trap (continued)  Mindsets may mirror assumptions about one’s life or success Boundaries may be blurred Boundaries may be blurred Organizational assumptions may be linked to personal disappointments Organizational assumptions may be linked to personal disappointments Changes in the workplace represent turbulence, and may result in anxiety Changes in the workplace represent turbulence, and may result in anxiety

The Status Quo Trap (continued)  Over-representation of the benefits of current organizational direction Circular reasoning (I know what I have; I don’t know what I might have had) Circular reasoning (I know what I have; I don’t know what I might have had) Reinforcement for maintaining the status quo (“don’t rock the boat”) Reinforcement for maintaining the status quo (“don’t rock the boat”)

Navigating Around the Status Quo  Help others to identify their reasoning Determine where they are anchored Determine where they are anchored Talk about discomfort with change Talk about discomfort with change Changing direction can be incremental Changing direction can be incremental  Help others to focus on options with cost/benefit implications Use the “what if” approach Use the “what if” approach

Navigating Around the Status Quo (continued)  Accept incremental change in direction  Focus on small steps (“today is the beginning of the future”)  Don’t focus on too many alternatives  Emphasize team member’s taking control of his/her responsibilities

The Sunk Cost Trap  Making choices that validate past decisions Prior choices may have been costly, and may have required a large effort to “fix” a problem Prior choices may have been costly, and may have required a large effort to “fix” a problem Embarrassment about having failed in a past strategic intervention Embarrassment about having failed in a past strategic intervention Need to protect your honor or dignityNeed to protect your honor or dignity May have involved a career setbackMay have involved a career setback

Avoiding the Sunk Cost Trap  Seek feedback from others not involved in past decision Provides a new perspective Provides a new perspective May also result in new contacts/outreach May also result in new contacts/outreach  Assess needs of other stakeholders How these needs affect current options How these needs affect current options Identifying possible conflicts Identifying possible conflicts

Avoiding the Sunk Cost Trap (continued)  Clarify why past mistakes are distressing May affect self-esteem May affect self-esteem Decision may have matched realities of a past time, but no longer be appropriate Decision may have matched realities of a past time, but no longer be appropriate Extenuating circumstances may have changed Extenuating circumstances may have changed

Avoiding the Sunk Cost Trap (continued)  Stress importance of personal growth Avoids creating a climate of “failure-fearing” Avoids creating a climate of “failure-fearing” Meets need for a well-constructed personal and professional plan Meets need for a well-constructed personal and professional plan Helps to align stakeholders “on the same page” Helps to align stakeholders “on the same page”

The Confirming Evidence Trap  Looking for evidence and confirmation from those who have a similar perspective or a vested interest  Overweighting supportive information, while avoiding the search for conflicting data

Avoiding the Confirming Evidence Trap  Assist others in sorting evidence List people who benefit from the favored approach List people who benefit from the favored approach List those who might benefit from another scenario List those who might benefit from another scenario Collaborate on developing alternative scenarios Collaborate on developing alternative scenarios

Avoiding the Confirming Evidence Trap (continued)  Emphasize need to identify specific motives of team member and other stakeholders  Focus on meeting individual and team goals (not mutually exclusive)

Estimating & Forecasting Traps  Needing to make estimates in the face of uncertainty  Overconfidence (rose-colored glasses) Understanding the difficulties Understanding the difficulties Optimism may lead to quick fixes, or assuming you are smarter than everyone else Optimism may lead to quick fixes, or assuming you are smarter than everyone else

Estimating & Forecasting Traps (continued)  Prudence (stakes are too high and we need to duck and cover) Risk probabilities may be exaggerated Risk probabilities may be exaggerated May act too conservatively without an effective action plan May act too conservatively without an effective action plan  Recallability (base predictions on what we think we remember) Likely to shade the data in our favor Likely to shade the data in our favor Usually don’t remember too well Usually don’t remember too well

Avoiding Estimating & Forecasting Traps  Disciplined approach to making forecasts or judging probabilities  Look at up side & down side for inconsistencies Avoid regret as much as possible Avoid regret as much as possible Don’t overpromise benefits Don’t overpromise benefits Have client challenge his/her estimates Have client challenge his/her estimates Try to minimize distortions in memory Try to minimize distortions in memory

Managing Heuristics  Greater vulnerability to heuristic traps at times of discontinuous change  Recognize heuristic traps and develop countering strategies  Organizational learning involves individual efforts in taking responsibility for personal mindsets and blocking behaviors  Leading change initiatives requires strong commitment to examining one’s own mindsets and thinking style

Thinking Styles  Synthesist - Challenge accepted views  Idealist - Defend the value system  Pragmatist - Get it done  Analyst - Study the details  Realist - Organize and then take action

Thinking Style Summary for Class

Summary  Thinking style analysis helps one to better understand what underlies how you approach information  Understanding heuristics helps one to avoid entrapment by unconscious thought routines  Still to come…Utilizing these skills within organizational settings for effective coaching