1 The probability that a medical test will correctly detect the presence of a certain disease is 98%. The probability that this test will correctly detect.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

We use: There is……… when just one. There are……..for more than one.

Advertisements

Applications of HGP Genetic testing Forensics. Testing for a pathogenic mutation in a certain gene in an individual that indicate a persons risk of developing.

Chapter 13: Sequential Experiments & Bayes’ Theorem 1.(13.1) Partition Theorem 2.(13.2) Bayes’ Theorem 1.(13.1) Partition Theorem 2.(13.2) Bayes’ Theorem.

Genetic Statistics Lectures （５） Multiple testing correction and population structure correction.

 When we perform a hypothesis test, we make a decision to either Reject the Null Hypothesis or Fail to Reject the Null Hypothesis.  There is always the.

Student’s Book 1 Whiteboard Presentation. Student’s Book 1 Complete the table. have got: affirmative Unit 1 Affirmative I you ……………………………………. he she it.

GP 4001 Lecture Series Dealing with undifferentiated problems in primary care II.

Expected Value. Objectives Determine the expected value of an event.

Azita Kheiltash Social Medicine Specialist Tehran University of Medical Sciences Diagnostic Tests Evaluation.

Dealing with Uncertainty  The need to deal with uncertainty arose in “expert systems”  Code expertise into a computer system Example:  Medical diagnosis:

GerstmanChapter 41 Epidemiology Kept Simple Chapter 4 Screening for Disease.

Sample Proportion. Say there is a huge company with a boat load of employees. If we could talk to all the employees we could ask each one whether or not.

Biotic indices and Indicator species. Remember about canaries in coal mines? Indicator species – Use of a living organism that is sensitive to certain.

1. Probability of Equally Likely Outcomes 2. Complement Rule 1.

(Medical) Diagnostic Testing. The situation Patient presents with symptoms, and is suspected of having some disease. Patient either has the disease or.

Screening and Early Detection Epidemiological Basis for Disease Control – Fall 2001 Joel L. Weissfeld, M.D. M.P.H.

Lecture 4: Assessing Diagnostic and Screening Tests

I ’ ve got the Power! Hypothesis Tests When we perform a hypothesis test, we make a decision to either Reject the Null Hypothesis or Fail to Reject the.

Retrospective Cohort Study. Review- Retrospective Cohort Study Retrospective cohort study: Investigator has access to exposure data on a group of people.

ESTIMATION. STATISTICAL INFERENCE It is the procedure where inference about a population is made on the basis of the results obtained from a sample drawn.

FUNCTIONSFUNCTIONS Symmetric about the y axis Symmetric about the origin.

Measures of Association

The proportion of infants who are born alive with a defect of the ventricular septum of the heart is a prevalence or incidence? Slide 53.

In-Class Exercise: Geometric and Negative Binomial Distributions

Serial Position Effects in Free Recall In a free recall task, you are given a list of words, one word at a time, and immediately afterwards you try to.

1 Statistical Analysis Professor Lynne Stokes Department of Statistical Science Lecture #0 Inferences on Odds and Odds Ratios.

Normal Probability Distribution Using Normal Distribution for Probability.

1 SCREENING. 2 Why screen? Who wants to screen? n Doctors n Labs n Hospitals n Drug companies n Public n Who doesn’t ?

Task One – Data Collection Has an Ipod TOTALS YesNo Has been to the South Island Yes No TOTALS.

Ch Counting Techniques Product Rule If the first element or object of an ordered pair can be used in n 1 ways, and for each of these n1 ways.

 A -  B -  C -  D - Yes No Not sure.  A -  B -  C -  D - Yes No Not sure.

9.3: Sample Means.

AP Statistics Chapter 20 Notes

Standardized Distributions Statistics Introduction Last time we talked about measures of spread Specifically the variance and the standard deviation.

Baye’s Theorem Working with Conditional Probabilities.

Bayes’ Theorem -- Partitions Given two events, R and S, if P(R  S) =1 P(R  S) =0 then we say that R and S partition the sample space. More than 2 events.

DNA Identification: Bayesian Belief Update Cybergenetics © TrueAllele ® Lectures Fall, 2010 Mark W Perlin, PhD, MD, PhD Cybergenetics, Pittsburgh,

6.3 Bayes Theorem. We can use Bayes Theorem… …when we know some conditional probabilities, but wish to know others. For example: We know P(test positive|have.

 When we perform a hypothesis test, we make a decision to either Reject the Null Hypothesis or Fail to Reject the Null Hypothesis.  There is always the.

What is a charity? Which charities do you know? What kind of things do charities do? Why do you think it is important to support charities? Supporting.

Evaluating Results of Learning Blaž Zupan

Stevie Wonder By Vivan Misquitta. Do you wonder how Wonder got the disease Wonder was born blind. When Wonder was an infant, the blood vessels behind.

CHAPTER 4: Effects of Intimate Partner Violence Against Women.

Screening and its Useful Tools Thomas Songer, PhD Basic Epidemiology South Asian Cardiovascular Research Methodology Workshop.

Rejecting Chance – Testing Hypotheses in Research Thought Questions 1. Want to test a claim about the proportion of a population who have a certain trait.

S-005 Sampling. Some basic terminology Population –Larger group (the research population) –Sometimes can be quite small Sample –A subset of the population.

Where do teens say SEXUAL PRESSURES and other influences come from? (The pressure or influence could be to be sexually active or to wait to have sex) Sexual.

1 Wrap up SCREENING TESTS. 2 Screening test The basic tool of a screening program easy to use, rapid and inexpensive. 1.2.

Probability & Significance Everything you always wanted to know about p-values* *but were afraid to ask Evidence Based Chiropractic April 10, 2003.

Topic 6 Probability Modified from the notes of Professor A. Kuk P&G pp

False Positives Sensitive Surveys Lesson Starter A bag contains 5 red marbles and 4 blue marbles. Two marbles are drawn without replacement. What.

Headway Unit 5 Where do you live?. Grammar There is / are Positive Negative Yes/ No Question a bookisThere three booksare a bookis notThere any booksare.

Diagnostic Test Characteristics Professor Mobeen Iqbal Shifa College of Medicine.

Section Conditional Probability Objectives: 1.Understand the meaning of conditional probability. 2.Learn the general Multiplication Rule:

Bell Ringer Employment data at a large company reveal that 72% of the workers are married, 44% are college graduates, and half of the college grads are.

Tay Sachs Disease By Dana Hienbuecher. Other Names Abbreviation: TSD Other names include GM2 gangliosidosis and Hexosaminidase A deficiency Bernard Sachs,

Diagnosis Examination(MMSE) in detecting dementia among elderly patients living in the community. Excel.

1 Section 8.2 Basics of Hypothesis Testing Objective For a population parameter (p, µ, σ) we wish to test whether a predicted value is close to the actual.

Chapter 9 – Statistical Estimation Statistical estimation involves estimating a population parameter with a sample statistic. Two types of estimation:

STAT 240 PROBLEM SOLVING SESSION #2. Conditional Probability.

© 2010 Jones and Bartlett Publishers, LLC. Chapter 12 Clinical Epidemiology.

Chapter 9: Means and Proportions as Random Variables 9.1 Understanding dissimilarity among samples 9.2 Sampling distributions for sample proportions 9.3.

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم COHORT STUDIES.

The False Positive Paradox

Using the Percent Proportion

Distribution of the Sample Proportion

Using the percent proportion

MAS2317 Presentation Question 1

Proportions of discharge diagnoses or death following first readmission/death within 30 or 180 days after initial discharge, according to the presence.

Age-standardized* prevalence and number of cases of diagnosed diabetes among individuals aged 1 year and older, Canada, 1998/99 to 2008/09. *Age-standardized.

Presentation transcript:

1 The probability that a medical test will correctly detect the presence of a certain disease is 98%. The probability that this test will correctly detect the absence of the disease is 95%.

2 The disease is fairly rare, found in only 0.5% of the population. If you have a positive test (meaning that the test says “yes, you got it”) what is the probability that you really have the disease?

3 Test positive Test negative TOTAL Have disease? YES Have disease? NO TOTAL100,000

4 Test positive Test negative TOTAL Have disease? YES 500 Have disease? NO 99,500 TOTAL100,000

5 Test positive Test negative TOTAL Have disease? YES Have disease? NO 99,500 TOTAL100,000

6 Test positive Test negative TOTAL Have disease? YES Have disease? NO 99,500 TOTAL100,000

7 Test positive Test negative TOTAL Have disease? YES Have disease? NO 94,525 99,500 TOTAL100,000

8 Test positive Test negative TOTAL Have disease? YES Have disease? NO 4,975 94,525 99,500 TOTAL100,000

9 Test positive Test negative TOTAL Have disease? YES Have disease? NO 4,975 94,525 99,500 TOTAL 5, ,000

10 Test positive Test negative TOTAL Have disease? YES Have disease? NO 4,975 94,525 99,500 TOTAL 5,465 94, ,000

11 Test positive Test negative TOTAL Have disease? YES Have disease? NO 4,975 94,525 99,500 TOTAL 5,465 94, ,000 Among those with a positive test, the proportion with The disease is (about 9%).

12 Test positive Test negative TOTAL Have disease? YES Have disease? NO 4,975 94,525 99,500 TOTAL 5,465 94, ,000 Among those with a negative test, the proportion with out the disease is ( %).