COUNTRY PROJECT Presentations Jamaica Integrated Assessment of Trade-Related Policies and Biological Diversity in the Agriculture Sector Geneva, November 2007

OVERALL OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSESSMENT This was an IA study of the sugar industry in Jamaica. ▪ Jamaica’s sugar industry is in crisis. It is uncompetitive, threatened by the phasing-out of trade preferences. The Government is trying to encourage investment and a switch into ethanol production. ▪ Jamaica needs an economically viable, politically acceptable, socially tolerable and environmentally not- too-damaging solution.

FOCUS OF THE PROJECT This project focused on the sugar industry in Jamaica. The research started early in To date, we have reviewed the economic, trade, social, technological and environmental issues.

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ▪ The driving force is the change in the system of EU preferences. Without these subsidies, the industry might collapse. ▪ Sugar is the most extensive crop in terms of land, irrigation etc. ▪ The collapse of the industry would leave this land available for other forms of use...but what? ▪ A successful move into ethanol production would encourage more land to switch into cane. ▪ Which would be better for Jamaica? For farmers? For biodiversity?

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK (cont.) Linkages between the main issues: Trade preferences: timetable to phase-out Subsidized sugar farming Bad for biodiversityMaintains workforce of up to 30,000 in low-wage industry Increasing competitive and trade pressure from eg Brazil Lack of clear alternatives for land use Failure of political will/vision Votes

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK (cont.) Changing environment Will drive change – but what direction? It could be positive or negative

METHODOLOGY AND TOOLS ▪ The baseline is the untenable status quo. If the industry collapses, the impacts are: - Financial (loss of f/x) - Social (loss of jobs, mostly low-paid, in poor rural districts) ▪ The potential gains are: - Reduced burden of subsidies - Potential biodiversity gain (depends on alternative use) IF move into ethanol the potential gains are: - Reduced f/x outflows for oil - New business and job opportunities ▪ The potential impacts are: More land under cane, with associated environmental impacts.

PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ▪ Core project team: Professor Anthony Clayton, Dr. Kn’Ife, Andrew Spencer. ▪ Technical support: Tricia Jack, Jacquie Howell-Nash ▪ Partners: Anthony McKenzie, National Environmental and Planning Agency ▪ National Advisory Committee: - Michael Prescod, Cabinet Office (chair) - Earle V. Roberts, Sugar Industry Research Institute - Donovan Stanberry, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture - Marilyn Headley, Conservator of Forests - Dr Audia Barnett, Director, Scientific Research Council - Keith Collister, Private Sector of Jamaica - Carlo Pettinato, European Commission

ASSESSMENT PROCESS The research work has involved: ▪ Two research officers: Dr. Kn’Ife and Andrew Spencer, conducting field work, interviews, preliminary assessment of other studies, drafting reports. ▪ One research supervisor: Professor Anthony Clayton) maintaining oversight, drafting main reports.

METHODOLOGY AND TOOLS (cont.) ▪ Data being sourced from variety of sources, including: - Ministry of Agriculture: many earlier studies of industry (over 110 years) - Sugar Industry Research Institute - University of the West Indies - Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica

INTERIM RESULTS ▪ Four reports completed so far: - Social - Trade - Technological - Environmental impacts and biodiversity Specific scenarios assessed: probability of change in external trade environment, feasibility of technological solutions, pattern of environmental impact, likely social and economic implications of different options. ▪ Now submitted to UNEP: - Project LogFrame - Four technical reports - Three PowerPoint presentations - Advisory Committee Minutes etc - Country report update - Two assessments of the UNEP IA manual ▪ Reports still to do: - Business model for the industry - Assessment of optimal land-use options

PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION UPDATE (cont) ▪ Major activities for the next 6 months include: Completion of the next two studies: - Business model for the industry - Assessment of optimal land-use options ▪ National meeting to discuss the six studies ▪ Then review the IA indicators, review country reports and IA models, review UNEP manual, draft final report

MAJOR ACHIEVEMENTS TO DATE ▪ The main achievements to date are: - High-level access to necessary data. - Honest assessment.

The main challenges are… ▪ 110 years of political failure to arrive at a solution for this industry. ▪ An entrenched, powerful elite that dominates the decision-making process. ▪ EC locked in to failed models of development. MAIN CHALLENGES