Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Hybrid Life Cycle Assessment Sangwon Suh Centre of Environmental Science (CML) Leiden University, the Netherlands

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Truncation in LCA Hybrid input-output LCA Case Study Conclusion Contents

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Energy Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Raw Capital Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Energy Capital Raw Capital Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Energy Capital Raw Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Raw Capital Energy Capital Raw Capital Energy Raw Capital Energy Raw Capital Energy Capital Raw Capital Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Energy Raw Energy Capital Energy Capital Raw Capital Raw Capital Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Raw Capital Energy Capital Raw Energy Capital Raw Capital Raw Energy Raw Energy Raw Capital Energy Raw Capital Raw Capital Energy Raw Use Raw A Manuf. Raw B Disp. Raw Energy Capital Energy Raw

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Reference Lave et al., 1995 Lenzen, 2001 Estimated truncation 66% 9~52% Method 1 st order upstream 3 rd order (energy) Truncation in Process LCA

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 [Lave et al., 1995][Lenzen., 2001]

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 [Donhomae, 1994] [Lave et al., 1995] [Hendrickson et al, 1998] Input-output based LCI

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Activated carbon and charcoal Alkali metals Alumina Aluminum chloride Aluminum compounds Aluminum hydroxide (alumina trihydrate) Aluminum oxide Aluminum sulfate Alums Ammonia alum Ammonium chloride, hydroxide, and molybdate Ammonium compounds, except for fertilizer Ammonium perchlorate Ammonium thiosulfate Barium compounds Bauxite, refined Beryllium oxide Bleach (calcium hypochlorite), industrial Bleach (sodium hypochlorite), industrial Bleaches, industrial Bleaching powder, industrial Borax (sodium tetraborate) Boric acid Boron compounds, not produced at mines Borosilicate Brine Bromine, elemental Calcium carbide, chloride, and hypochlorite Calcium compounds, inorganic Calcium metal Carbide Catalysts, chemical Cerium salts Cesium metal Charcoal, activated SIC Industrial inorganic chemicals, NEC 182 items

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Engineering Model Meso/Macro Economic Model Why Hybrid ? Integrated hybrid LCA Accurate Disaggregated Partial Complete Aggregated General

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Hybrid Life Cycle Assessment [Moriguchi et al., 1993] Utilized Japanese input-output table and process data for life cycle CO2 emission of automobile

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Process analysis Input-output analysis Bullard et al. (1978) Engelenburg et al. (1994) Moriguchi et al (1993) Tired hybrid model

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Input-output based hybrid model + Use + Disposal Joshi (1999) Gibbson et al. (1982)

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Integrated Hybrid LCI modeling LCI [Heijungs & Suh, 2002] : Physical unit/operation time IOA [Stone, et al., 1963] : Monetary unit/total production Integrating the computational structure of Full interaction between process and economy

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Steel Steam Production of Toaster Use of Toaster Disposal of toaster 1 kg CO 2 /kg steel 4 kg CO 2 / MJ Steam 1 kg0.5 MJ 1 unit 2 kg CO 2 /unit toaster production kg CO 2 / piece of bread toasted 0.5 kg CO 2 /unit toaster disposal 0.5 MJ 0.25 kg Integrated Hybrid LCI modeling

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Integrated Hybrid LCI modeling

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 LC CO 2 Contribution by processes

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Integrated Hybrid LCI modeling

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Pretreatment of IO table for integration

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Hybrid matrix

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September $ Sub Bitumen Steam 0.031$ Ind.Bld Coal mining Ind. Installat’n

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Case Study - Baseline (Existing LCI) - Hybrid (Cut-offs and capitals : 38 links) - IO LCI (Miscellaneous floor coverings) Linoleum (a flooring material by Forbo BV)

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Baseline Hybrid Max IO LCI 0% 5% ~ 73% (avg. 18%) -85% ~ 124% (avg. 3%) Percent change

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Process LCA Input-OutputLCA Model Process specific Encompassing system boundary StrengthsWeakness Truncation Aggregation HybridLCAHybridLCA Process specific Encompassing system boundary Process specific Encompassing system boundary Process specific Encompassing system boundary Process specific Encompassing system boundary Approaches in Life Cycle Inventory Modelling

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Uncertainties in LCI

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Uncertainty analyses Perturbation Analysis (Heijungs and Suh, 2002) Monte Carlo simulation (Hendry, 1984, Huijlbregts, 2001) Changes in results due to change in a parameter Location and dispersion of the results due to simultaneous changes in all parameters

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Monte Carlo simulation Computation of LCI E: Life Cycle Inventory B: Environmental intervention matrix A: Technology matrix y: Functional unit

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Monte Carlo simulation Basic concept Randomly distributed noise on Environmental intervention matrix Randomly distributed noise on Environmental intervention matrix Randomly distributed noise on Technology matrix Randomly distributed noise on Technology matrix Statistical property, location and dispersion

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Model building Data gathering Extraction of distributionproperties distributionproperties Coding and running a program Coding and running a program Analyse the results Analyse Steps for Monte Carlo simulation

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Process LCA Input-output LCA Hybrid LCA Monte Carlo simulation Model building

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Monte Carlo simulation Data gathering Linoleum 1996 US. IO data and environmental statistics Hard surface floor coverings, n.e.c. 38 missing flows linked with IO table Process LCA (Gorree et al., 2001) Input-output LCA (Suh and Huppes, 2001) Hybrid LCA (Suh and Huppes, 2001)

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Considered uncertainty IO part Aggregation Uncertainty Uncertainty due to data age Source data uncertainty in IO table Source data uncertainty in environmental data Process part Uncertainty due to data age Source data uncertainty in technology matrix Source data uncertainty in environmental data

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Monte Carlo simulation Extraction of distribution property Ex) Aggregation Uncertainty in IO LCA 496 X

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Monte Carlo simulation Data preparation Ex) Aggregation Uncertainty in IO LCA

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Narrow distribution but relatively underscored More provable to contain the ‘ true values ’ but rather wider distribution Wider than process analysis but much narrower than IO results and closer to the target value

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Accuracyvs.precision

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 APPLAUSE

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 ‘ Which is the better ’ arguments between process LCA and IO LCA Two sides of a coin: Accuracy vs. precision Process LCA High precision but less accuracy IO LCA High accuracy but less precision

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Conclusions In engineering terms, pure process-LCA is precise but lacks accuracy, while pure IO-LCA is more likely cover the true value but lacks precision. Hybrid LCA combines the two and improves the accuracy while maintaining the overall precision. Hybrid approach generally solves the problem of system boundary in process-LCA conserving process-specificity as much as possible

Centre of Environmental Science CML, Leiden University Prepared for NATO workshop Budapest, Hungary September 2003 Thank You