Political Party & Unemployment Group 5: Richard Baker, Michael Jelmini, Kenneth Morino, Cambria Price, You Ren, James Young Econ 240A Professor Llad Phillips.

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Presentation transcript:

Political Party & Unemployment Group 5: Richard Baker, Michael Jelmini, Kenneth Morino, Cambria Price, You Ren, James Young Econ 240A Professor Llad Phillips

Objective  Why? Upcoming graduation Recent recession Recent increase in unemployment  What? Is there a correlation between unemployment and presidential party affiliation?  How? Time series data of national unemployment rate Bernoulli distribution of party affiliation

Hypothesis H 0 : When a republican is in presidential office, the unemployment rate is higher than when a democrat is in office. H a : There is no correlation between the political affiliation of the president and the unemployment rate.

Collected Data Unemployment Data from Bureau of Labor Statistics Presidential Party Affiliations - The White House

Meet the Presidents

Presidential Party Affiliation

Time Series Data of Unemployment Rates

Linear Probability Model

Regression Results

Linear Probability Model Analysis Problem: –LPM not constrained within 0<P(x)<1 Solution: – model with Probit!

Model with Probit

Probit Regression Results

Further Analysis Is there an unemployment rate overlap due to previous presidential party affiliation? If so, how much overlap? –1 year –2 years Will these models produce a better/worse correlation?

One Year Forward Lag BeforeAfter

Probit Model of One Year Lag

One Year Lag Results

Two Year Forward Lag BeforeAfter

Probit Model of Two Year Lag

Two Year Lag Results

Conclusions A significant correlation between unemployment rate and political party affiliation was discovered A stronger correlation was found when applying a one year lag, and to a lesser degree, a two year lag, on this relationship Overall, we conclude from our data that unemployment is significantly greater when a Republican president is in office when compared to a Democrat