COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 1 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 2 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Content Modular framework of the model Qualitative shipper survey Quantitative shipper survey

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 3 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Micro/Macro models Passenger transport: established micro models Activity-based modelling Individuals, households, activities, trips... Freight transport: macro models

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 4 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Why micro models? Expectations More behavioural realism Evaluation of effects of new technical innovations Forecast e.g. mode change, total amount of kilometres of different kinds of lorries Derive environmental influences of traffic Micro demand data are needed for Micro traffic flow simulation Traffic management evaluation High spatial resolution

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 5 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Simulation structure Indicators (Carriers) Service Traffic (Producers, distributors) ShipmentsTripsFlows Synthetic economic structure Logistic providers Traffic flow simulation Freight demand

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 6 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Generating the synthetic economic structure Generate firms Existing aggregate data Number of firms per location, type, size Disaggregate to individual businesses Spatial granularity determined by transport infrastructure Use local data if available, e.g. land use data Choose suppliers / customers Based on aggregate trade flows, traffic flows

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 7 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Data request Necessity of data about behaviour of shippers Not available from official statistic Literature: references to influencing factors not representative Decision: two-part survey Qualitative survey Quantitative survey

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 8 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Qualitative survey (2004) Objectives Decision making processes in production firms Preparation of the quantitative survey 12 interviews, one hour face-to-face 6 industries, 2 firm sizes Main topics: Involvement of transport issues in production decisions Dynamics of production changes Mode use and reasons

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 9 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Quantitative survey (2005) Objective: Behaviour of shippers Data collection for the model 907 firms, 128 logistic providers All manufacturing industries, 4 firm sizes 30 minutes CATI Main topics: Supplier / customer structure Relationship to shippers Current transport demand Transport requirements

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 10 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Distribution of firms in the survey Spread all over Germany (representative survey) Concentration on German industrial districts and big cities Distribution of production firms and logistic providers 1 triangle = 1 shipper (n =128) 1 point = 1 production firm (n = 907)

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 11 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Remarks Following results only for production firms Spatial patterns of supply Modal Split Outsourcing

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 12 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Locations of suppliers

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 13 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Locations of customers

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 14 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Total revenue of production firms

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 15 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Modal Split for supply (by weight) EnterpriseRoadRailInland waterways Maritime transport Air transport Micro (n=69) 99.7 %0.0 % 0.1 % Small (n=304) 96.1 %0.9 %0.2 %1.6 %1.5 % Medium- sized (n=258) 95.0 %0.2 %0.4 %2.4 %2.0 % Large (n=213) 90.5 %3.2 %0.8 %3.7 %1.9 % Average (n=844) 94.6 %1.2 %0.4 %2.2 %1.6 % Total average Germany %8.4 %6.4 %7.3 %0.07 % Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany,

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 16 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Modal Split for distribution (by weight) EnterpriseRoadRailInland waterways Maritime transport Air transport Micro (n=68) 99.3 %0.0 % 0.7 % Small (n=316) 95.7 %0.3 %0.1 %2.0 % Medium- sized (n=260) 91.4 %0.6 %0.3 %4.7 %3.4 % Large (n=215) 90.0 %2.2 %0.6 %3.5 %3.8 % Average (n=860) 93.2 %0.8 %0.3 %3.0 %2.8 % Total average Germany %8.4 %6.4 %7.3 %0.07 % Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany,

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 17 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen (claim/demand: anytime worldwide available for supply) raw material (India) Example: change in mode of transport due to reorganization (company for pharmaceutical products) road package / crawled raw materials (England) production / packing (Germany) waterways customer (e. g. Asia) airplane (from Hamburg or Frankfurt) customer (GER/Europe) ship (from Hamburg or Rotterdam) road change due to reorganization cold store

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 18 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Outsourcing to the world – last ten years (multiple denomination possible)

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 19 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Outsourcing to Europe – last ten years (multiple denomination possible)

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 20 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Outsourcing to the world – anticipated (multiple denomination possible)

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 21 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Outsourcing to Europe – anticipated (multiple denomination possible)

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > slide 22 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen Status and outlook Analysis of surveys is mainly processed Simulation programming on-going Simple type of module completed Prototype application planned along macro model