Enter Climate Change Source: NASA Climate Change Cooperation

The Problem Human Induced Increase in GHG

The Increase in CO 2 is Not Uncertain

Effect on Global Mean Temperature

The Science  Svante Arrhenius (1896) – doubling of CO2 -> increase by 5C  Transnational scientific collaboration: 1970s- 1980s  International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 1988 by WMO and UNEP

IPCC  Doubling of CO2 –1.4-5C t increase

Sources of Scientific Uncertainty  Sulfate aerosol – cooling effect  Ocean – absorption capacity  Clouds – cooling or warming effect  Non-linear effect – shutdown of the circulation of the North Atlantic (thermohaline circulations)?

The Actors

The Breakthrough  UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Rio 1992) –189 countries joined –Common but differentiated responsibility –Stabilization at 1990 emission levels desirable –Reporting requirement –GEF: Main funding mechanism

COP at Kyoto  Lead actors: EU reductions of CO2, NOx, methane from 1990 levels  Transition economies: Emissions considerably (~30%) below 1990 levels ->hot air.  US Position: stabilization of all gases at 1990 levels and emissions trading to offset costs, differential targets, participation of developing countries –Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zeeland  Developing countries: industrialized countries should take the lead

The Kyoto Protocol  Emission reduction targets for industrialized countries (Annex I countries) -total emissions -5.2% of 1992 by national ceilings -Six gases included (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs, PFCs and sulfur hexafluoride). Global Warming Potentials used to translate to C02 equivalent.  No targets for developing countries  Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

COP Bonn and Marrakech  Implementation of flexible mechanisms  Forest sinks – countries can receive credits for carbon sinks (forests)  “Enforcement” mechanisms

Flexible Mechanisms  Emissions trading –Countries with binding emissions trade  Joint Implementations –Country with binding target receives emission credits for emission abatement projects in another country with a binding target  Clean Development Mechanism –Countries with targets receive credits for abatement projects in developing countries – 2% tax for adaptation

Entry into Force  55 ratifications  55% of Annex I emissions Country % of 1990 Annex I Emissions US 36.1 EU 24.2 Russia 17.4 Japann 8.5 Canada 3.3 Poland 3 Other EU Accecession 3.4

Two Views on Kyoto Is the KP fatally flawed or is it a meaningful step in the right direction?

Kyoto Protocol Controversies  Hot air  Non-participation  Leakage  Measuring additionally in JI and CDM  Enforcement –“paper” trades –Non-compliance –Exit

Current Developments  Russia ratified 2005  EU carbon emissions trading projected started January/February 2005 –National allocation plans (cover about 5,000 out of estimated 12,000 large emitters) –Approval of national emission plans –Trade in emission allowances  COP 11, Montreal, November-December 2005  COP 12, Nairobi, November 2006.