Future Forward: The New England Economy --Poised for recovery or region in decline? Ross Gittell Whittemore School of Business and Economics, UNH New England.

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Presentation transcript:

Future Forward: The New England Economy --Poised for recovery or region in decline? Ross Gittell Whittemore School of Business and Economics, UNH New England Economic Project

Gross State Product: Peak to Trough Decline and “Recovery” to Q New England lags the nation...

Total Employment decline sharper in New England and taking longer to recover than US average, MA with sharpest employment decline and slow recovery

Manufacturing sector the greatest decline and of the greatest concern…Will it ever come back in region?

Information sector showing signs of recovery after 15% decline in the region

Similar experience with Professional and Business Service, sharper than US decline in region but now with signs of recovery

Regional Economy Forecast: Modest recovery expected yRegional economy is slowly improving…. yAnnualized growth rate in last quarters of 2003 expected to highest growth rates in 3+ years yFirst quarter 2004 growth rate expected to match US yThen exceed US average growth and peak in mid-2004 yAfter that...growth is expected to remain below 4 percent and just below US average… much slower growth than late 1990s of above 9 percent

New England Economic Project (NEEP): Highest percentage employment growth expected in Education&Health Services and Professional & Business Services Not Information. In all sectors in New England below US growth rates expected in employment.

Gross State Product (Forecasted average growth, 02-07, NEEP) Region below US growth and only NH above US average, Maine and Vermont lagging in growth in output...

Total Employment Forecast of Average Annual Growth …….. Average growth less than 1 percent per year only NH is expected to have employment growth at US average